MLB Preview: How the NL West Will Be Won

Call it a hunch!

The Dodgers now outspend the Yankees, are the runaway favorites in the NL West, and a trendy pick to win the World Series. Haven’t I heard that somewhere before? Gonzalez, Ramirez, Puig, Ethier, and a healthy Matt Kemp–LA should hit a ton. Kershaw, Grienke, Billingsley, and Ryu can pitch and Jansen’s a proven closer. What could go wrong? Chemistry, for one. Which outfielder will sit? Crawford? Kemp? Can Puig and Beckett stay of trouble? Other than Kershaw, the staff is solid but inconsistent. Is Grienke an ace, or one of MLB’s chronic underachievers?  

Breaking news: Grienke left his first spring training start after three pitches. 

Baumgardner, Cain, Hudson, Lincecum, Vogelsong…. The Giants simply have too much pitching for 2013 to have been anything more than a fluke. Posey, Belt, Sandoval, Pagan, and Pence don’t match up with the Dodgers’ heavy hitters, but they’ll do. Sergio Roma as closer? I’ll withhold judgement for another year. As much as people talk of the Dodgers’ staff, the Giants have the potential to be better. You know what they say about good pitching versus good hitting…

The Rockies are the annual mystery team and this year is no different. We know that CarGo, Tulowitzi, and Cuddyer are pretty good, and that De La Rosa and Chacin are crafty pitchers. What we don’t know is anything else. Is Arnando the future at third base? Will Morneau stay healthy? Can an unproven closer (Brothers) do the job? Who comes after Chacin in the rotation? 

Breaking news: Chacin has had spring shoulder problems. This is very bad news for the Rox. 

The Diamondbacks are also a mystery team. Goldschmidt, Hill, Prado, and Trumbo are proven hitters, Cody Ross an occasional one. The staff has an innings eater in Arroyo, but he’s no ace. And neither is the maddeningly inconsistent McCarthy or the fragile Cahill. Corbin was the man last year. If he slumps… If things click properly, the D’Backs can make some noise, but they could go south faster than a D.C. conservative.

The Padres won’t suck this year, but they look to be a few years away from being contenders.  Quentin is the real deal and there are some nice prospects on this roster (Alonso, Gyorko, Cabrera). They also have a lot of garbage (like Venable and Maybin). The pitching staff is a very big question mark. Which Ian Kennedy and Josh Johnson will show up? And who are the rest of these guys? This is Headley’s year to prove if he’s an elite player, or just one that had good early press.

Prediction:

1. Giants: Total hunch; could be out to lunch

2. Dodgers: Proving again that money buys respectability, but not a brass ring.

3. Rockies: I’m betting things go well, but wouldn’t be shocked if the Rocks sink.

4. Padres: They surprise by escaping from the Lower Ring of Hades.

5. Diamondbacks: I don’t like their pitching staff at all. But if things go right...