This won't be a brilliant division this year. The
defending World Series champion Giants will
be weaker, as will the Dodgers, the
team that actually won the division last year. Neither the Diamondbacks nor the Rockies
are substantially better. That has led some observers to pick the revamped Padres to contend for the NL West
Crown. Somebody has to win this division, but I don't think it will be the
Pads.
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| Wil Myers swings at another ball out of the strike zone. |
Why the Padres could
win: If Matt Kemp stays healthy, Will Middlebrooks regains his (long lost)
mojo, somebody (Medica? Alones?) plays like an everyday first baseman, Justin
Upton fulfills his potential, and Wil Myers isn't a bust, the Padres could ride
a staff headed by Shields. Cashner, and Kennedy to glory.
Why it won't happen: Because
Middlebrooks is lost, Kemp too fragile, Upton too temperamental, and Myers is a
fraud. And because Brandon Morrow is the # 4 starter.
Why the Dodgers will
win: Too much pitching. Greinke, Ryu, and Kershaw—MLB's best pitcher)–head the
division's best staff. The Dodgers overpaid for McCarthy, but he only needs to
be so-so (and so-so he'll be). Jimmy Rollins won't hit as well as Hanley
Ramirez, but his defense will be way better. I look for Ethier to supplant
Pederson in center, who isn't ready. AGon is steady at first. Crawford is much
maligned, but a good player.
What could go wrong: Puig might be one
of MLB's best players; he might also be to jerks what Miley Cyrus is to twerks.
If he goes Bad Boy poisonous, I'm not sure this team has the character (or
leadership) to right a listing ship.
What about the
Giants? Nobody–and I mean nobody–wants to face Bumgarner, Cain, Hudson et.
al in the playoffs, but the Giants have to get there first. Are Belt, Posey,
Pagan, Pence, and Aoki enough to get them there? I'm skeptical. I'm downright
cynical that Casey McGhee will make anyone forget Sandoval, as overrated as he
is. Besides, it's an odd-numbered year and the Giants only win in even years!
Most likely to stink:
The Diamondbacks could easily lost 100 games, despite a few good players
(Goldschmidt, Hill, Trumbo). Their "ace" (Collmenter) won all of 11
games last year and two-thirds of their starters were cast-offs from a team short on pitching (Red Sox, 2014).
Hellickson would be useful if healthy, but he's injured again and it's only
March.
Could surprise:
The Rockies have Morneau, Tulowitzki, Arenado, and GarGo. They will score some
runs, but that won't matter unless the pitching is better than it looks.
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| Should win, though I don't think you'll see them in the World Series. |
Predictions:
1. Dodgers (Call
it prediction without conviction)
2. Padres (Not
because they're all that good, but because the division is that weak)
3. Giants (Sometimes
addition by subtraction really is subtraction)
4. Rockies (If they get pitching, they
could pass the Giants and maybe the Padres)
5. Diamondbacks (Is
that a dead snake causing that horrid smell?)
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