AL Central Should Be Wide Open
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| One last roar? I think so. |
This could be one of MLB's more interesting divisions. All
five teams have a legitimate shot at winning the Central; all five are also
flawed and could tank horribly. It still looks like the Tigers' division to lose, but the Striped Cats are by no means a
lock and they're not as good as last year.
Why the Tigers Should
Win: Even after losing Scherzer, who wouldn't want a staff with Verlander,
Price, and Sanchez? If Alfredo Simón makes the NL-to-AL transition and Greene
is a decent # 5, the Tigers' staff will remain formidable. Add MLB's best
offensive player–yes, he's still better than Mike Trout–in Miggy Cabrera; mix
him in with Kinsler, Céspedes, Avila, and the emerging J. D. Martinez and
Detroit will provide plenty of run support.
Why Detroit May Go Bankrupt: Verlander
hasn't dominated for several years and the bullpen is very shaky (Joba,
Albuquerque, Soria, Nathan). I didn't think Iglesias was very good before he
missed all of last year, nor am I convinced Céspedes will ever hit for average.
A key injury or two could cage the Tigers.
Will the Royals Again
Be Flush? Call me skeptical. Losing James Shields hurts—a lot! Vólquez
arrives–the he'll-be-a-star former phenom who's all of 66-59 lifetime based on
just two good years out of nine. Ventura might be their ace, but I can't say
I've ever thought much of Vargas or Guthrie. I still think Wade Davis ought to
be a starter. Holland had an amazing year last year, but can he duplicate it?
The offense hits for power—headed by Hosmer, Gordon, Infante, Morales, and a
resurgent Moustaka. Perez looks poised to become an elite catcher.
For
all of this, I need the Royals to pull an Ultimate Missouri and show me they're
for real. It's still a team that relies on big innings from guys whose on-base
percentages could/should be better. Are the Royals 4-5 games worse without
Shields? I think so and that makes them just an 84-win team.
Can the Indians Pull
a Surprise Attack? They could, though losing Gavin Floyd to the DL doesn't
help. Kluber is the reigning Cy Young winner, Bauer is very good, and McAlister
should be. Cody Allen as closer doesn't inspire though. Nice outfield with
Brantley, Murphy, and Bourn, though the latter needs to justify his inflated
contract and he simply hasn't done so yet. Moss at first sends Chisenhall
across the diamond to third–potentially a defensive problem. Catcher Carlos
Santana might see action at third–not good. Love Kipnis at second.
Did the White Sox Buy
Respectability? No. Not with Chris Sale on the DL. Let's just say that Noesi
isn't a replacement. I also fail to see the Samardzja hype. Melky Cabrera comes
over, but the Sox will miss Adam Dunn. Unless a few guys catch fire–including a
few (Eaton, Beckham, Flowers) who seem to be made of asbestos–this team might
struggle to score. Closer David Robertson is a nice addition, but they overpaid
to get him.
Predictions:
1. Tigers: Soft
pick that can be picked off. Every year they look ferocious on paper and each
year they are less than the sum of their parts. This year they look weaker, so logic
dictates that 2015 will be the year they roar!
2. Indians: Terry
Francona is one of the best managers in baseball. This club won't astonish
anyone with its star power, but it looks like the team Billy Beane always tried
to build in Oakland. Call this a hunch, but I see the Indians in the playoffs.
3. Royals: Was
2014 the sign of things to come, or just a lucky aberration? Show me again in
2015 and I'll start believing.
4. White Sox: Splashy
off-season, but still way too many holes. There's enough talent on the South
Side for the Sox to be this year's Royals, but I don't think that will happen. I
still say the White Sox will do better than the Cubs, though.
5. Twins: Not
this year, but soon. Nice mix of veterans (Mauer, Hunter, Suzuki) and rising
youngsters (Dozier, Arcia, Plouffe), but the Twins simply don't yet have enough
pitching to get to the postseason—Hughes, Santana, and Nolasco have to be on
anyone's "Most Likely to Disappoint" list. But watch them–they won't lose
92 games again this year.
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