2016 MLB Preview: NL West
T. S. Eliot once remarked that
April is the cruelest month. One of the ways in which that's true is it's the
opening of the MLB and a few teams that have no chance of winning the Big
Enchilada will have brilliant opening months. But, Alexander Pope was also
correct when he wrote, "Hope springs eternal in the human breast."
I'm as guilty of this as anyone. Each year at this time I launch into my MLB
predictions—a bit of prognostication with as much likelihood of being accurate
as running the bracket for the NCAA basketball tournament.
Have I learned my lesson? Of course
not! Here we go, starting with the National League East. Here's my order of
predicted finish: Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies,
Padres.
 |
| 10, 12, 14 and 16 |
The San Francisco Giants win in even years and my calendar says 2016. They
are betting that Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardizija are better pitchers than
their records suggest and that Matt Cain's injuries are behind him. That's
hoping for a lot, but a staff headed by Madison Bumgarner still looks better
than anyone else's in a year in which the NL West is poised to return to its status
as MLB's worst division. The SF offense, spearheaded by Posey, Belt, and
Crawford, isn't fearsome but will get the job done.
If the Giants falter, for the first
time since it snowed in Phoenix, the Arizona
Diamondbacks have a shot at the division, though it would require breakout
years from a few guys to complement the magnificent Paul Goldschmidt—an MVP
candidate—and A.J. Pollock. But stealing Greinke from the Dodgers was a coup
and I like the upside of Patrick Corbin. But it says here that the pitching is
too thin and that a roster headed by Red Sox flops like Miller and De La Rosa
won't get it done. I'll say second, but fourth wouldn't surprise me.
For once, the Los Angeles Dodgers don't come close to have to having a fearsome
henhouse of hurlers. There is perennial Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw and
then not much: hot/cold Scott Kazmir, an untested Japanese import (Maeda), a
so-so Korean who missed all of last season (Ryu), and still-wet-behind-the-ears Alex
Wood. Not enough. What date do you have in the annual "When Does Puig
Become a Distraction" pool? I've got July 1. I like Adrian Gonzalez and
Corey Seager, but then it's a steep falloff. And, yes, that includes Joc
Pederson, my vote for the most overrated prospect in the NL.
The Colorado Rockies held onto Carlos Gonzalez for the moment, Gerardo
Parra is serviceable, and Nolan Arenado is a star in the making, but the Rox
are always several pieces short. Pitching? All one needs to say is that Jorge
De La Rossa (9-7, 4.17) is the ace and Jason Motte the closer. Ouch!
Last year a lot of people (not me!)
saw the San Diego Padres as a
possible playoff team. Nobody feels that way now. They have exactly one guy
that another team would give major prospects to acquire: pitcher Andrew
Cashner, and his stock is falling. Things are so bad in San Diego that
Fernando Rodney is the closer and management is considering a swap of bad contracts: James "Longball"
Shields for Pedro Sandoval. Who in their right mind wants the Beluga Panda? If things go very well the Pads will
stay out of the basement, but I'd not wager on that!
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