MLB 2017 Central Time:
 |
| The Tribe is my pick for the World Series |
American League:
You gotta love Terry Francona and the Indians. They almost won it all last year with 60% of its starting
pitchers on the DL. Look out this year, if Bauer, Carrasco, Kluber, McAllister,
Tomlin, and Salazar are healthy. Andrew Miller may be the best relief pitcher
in baseball and Allen isn't far behind. Plus, the Tribe gets Brantley back to
supplement a solid parade of hitters, including Kipnis, Lindor, Chisenhall,
Santana, and Naquin. Add free agent Encarnacion and the Indians are loaded top
to bottom. My pick for the World Series.
The Royals are
enigmatic. They could challenge the Indians, or they could tank—neither would
surprise me. Duffy, Hammel, Karns, and Kennedy can't compete with a healthy
Cleveland staff, but they're solid. They will need more out of their # 5 (Vargas?
Wood? Young?). They also need Moustakas, Cain, Gordon, and Hosmer to hit like
they did in 2015, not last year. Soler was a good pickup but he's hurt. I'm not
sold on Moss, a low OBP guy, but Orlando looks like he's almost ready.
The Tigers are
starting to look toothless. Yes, Miggy Cabrera and both J.D. and Victor
Martinez can still rake, but Iglesias has fallen so low he's on the trade
block, Kinsler might be on the decline, Avila is no longer a starter, and any
team that starts Justin Upton is playing roulette. Two relative unknowns will
join him in the outfield (Jones and Mahtook). Detroit will also need Verlander
to be an ace again, Sanchez to recover his mojo, Zimmerman prove he can pitch
in the AL, and pray Fulmer doesn't have a sophomore slump. Is Greene an MLB
pitcher or an AAA guy?
The White Sox were
the AL equivalent of the Padres in that they thought they were buying a Rolls
Royce in the 2015-16 offseason and ended up with a Yugo. They wisely blew it up
and how they do this year isn't really the point—the ChiSox are looking a few
years down the road. For now they still have Quintana as their ace and
Robertson in the pen, though I doubt either will be there by the trade
deadline. The rest of the staff will probably be guys you either don't know
well (Covey, Ynoa, Gonzalez) or wish you didn't (Shields, Holland, Rodon). Three
guys are legitimate hitters (Abreu, Frazier, Melky Cabrera) and the rest are
hope-they-develop types.
The 2016 Twins were
everything that can go wrong with a youth movement. They have to be better this
year, right? Only if Hughes, Gibson and Santiago pitch better. Count me among
those who don't think Ervin Santana will ever be a reliable MLB pitcher. The
hitters? There's a declining Mauer, the budding star Dozier, and a bunch of
former high-profile prospects trying to shed the "bust" label
(Buxton, Sano, Escobar, Sand, Castro). If these guys don't gel this year, it might
be time to back up the van.
National League:
The Cubs won it
all it 2017 and now wear the unfamiliar hat as the oddsmaker' choice to repeat.
That's a pretty tall order. Winning the Central will be tough enough. Their
pitching features Jake Arieta, but then it's guys who could go either way:
Lackey, Lester, Anderson…. Will Hendricks win 16 games again? The lineup is
formidable: Baez, Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Zobrist, Schwarber…. Look for either
Szczur or Almora to relegate Heyward to the bench.
The Pirates could
challenge if the pitching holds. Cole is the real deal, despite a down year in
2016. Red flags: Nova is Mystery Man and young guns Kuhl and Glasnow are
unproven. The Bucs feature a potent lineup: Cervelli, Freese, Mercer, Marte,
McCutchen, Polanco…. If the Cubs slump or are slow out the gate, Pittsburgh is
capable of stealing the division. Their farm system is loaded.
The Cardinals suffered
injuries and a down year in 2016, but no one should take them lightly. Lynn,
Wacha, Leake, Carlos Martinez, and the back-from-the-dead-again Adam Wainwright
make up a potentially dynamite staff. They will need Carpenter, Wong, Adams, and
Peralta to step it up. Outfield production is questionable, unless Fowler is
the stud they think he is and Grichuk hits for a higher average. Piscotty looks
to be a keeper, though.
The Reds will
hit— Votto, Duvall, Cozart, Peraza‑ but not consistently enough. Billy Hamilton
might be the fastest man in baseball, but an OPS of .664 cancels his speed. The
pitching? On paper it looks dreadful. Of the returnees, only Finnegan won as
many as 10 games last year and he lost 11. Feldman becomes the ace without
having yet thrown an inning for the Reds and that's not a good thing. Unless
the young guys are better than projected and mature fast, the Reds are in for a
long year.
The Brewers are a
near carbon copy of the Reds. They feature some good hitters— Braun, Villar,
Thames— and lots of guys who won't make anyone forget Robin Yount. Maybe new
pickup Travis Shaw will help. Garza needs to get off the DL and pitch better, Zach
Davies needs to repeat his 2016 stats, and Peralta needs to reverse his, or the
Brew Crew will rival the Reds for batting practice pitching. But they have
greater potential and Milwaukee has a strong minor league system that could
help.
Predictions:
AL
Central: Indians, Royals, Tigers, Twins, White Sox (you can flip the last
three any old way)
NL
Central: Cubs, Cardinals, Pirates, Brewers, Reds
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