NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST PREVIEW 2021

 

Yes, kiddos, the Braves began in Boston, then went to Milwaukee

The NL East should be baseball’s most competitive division.

 

The Braves won it last year and, on paper, they’re still the best team in the East. They feature fearsome hitters–Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Ozuna, Swanson–and the only relief is that thus far Pache and Riley have been low on-base-percentage players. Only a solid-but-not-spectacular pitching staff puts a brake on the Atlanta juggernaut. Morton has a lot of mileage on his arm, Smyly manages to avoid being what scouts think he should be, and Wright and (Ian) Anderson can be gotten to. (Will) Smith is not yet an elite closer.

 

The Marlins, as usual, are a bunch of youngsters who might or might not be good. None of their starting pitchers is older than 25, and the only hitters that are household names are Dickerson and Marte, the latter of whom has not been the star he was projected to be. There are players who can mash, but several of them–Duvall, Alfaro, Diaz–have low on-base percentages. It’s hard to imagine the Fish will be competitive in the NL East.

 

The Mets have been picked as a possible Cinderella team. Potentially, only the Dodgers and Nationals can rival their pitching staff, but beware the term “potentially.” DeGrom is an annual Cy Young candidate, but Stroman, Walker, Peterson, and Lucchesi are inconsistent. The Mets fleeced the Indians by picking up Carrasco in the trade for Lindor, but he’s on the DL. For once, the Mets lineup is more than one stud and 7 dwarves. Lindor, Conforto, (Dominic) Smith, and Alonso is a solid middle of the lineup. The Mets have the potential to be best team in New York this year, but again there’s that qualifier: potential.

 

The Nationals staff is better than that of the Mets, if everyone stays healthy. That too comes with an imaginary asterisk. Strasburg has battled injuries his entire career and the aging Lester had surgery several weeks ago. Scherzer, though, will give deGrom and Kershaw (Dodgers) a run for the Cy Young award. On paper, their lineup is a step behind the Mets. Robles needs to improve and 3B Kieboom needs to prove he belongs. They plucked Schwarber from the Cubs and we’ll see if his power numbers decline outside of Wrigley Field. They’d better not, as he’s never been a high OBP guy. But Soto, Turner, Bell, and Castro are very good players.

 

My # 4 I-don’t-believe-in-you team is the chronically underperforming Phillies. Harper was supposed to be the NL’s answer to Mike Trout. He has stretches of brilliance, but he’s been more like bottom round than prime rib. The Phils lacked high OBP guys last year and you need them to eke out runs against great pitching. Speaking of great pitching, that of the Phillies is merely okay. Nola, Eflin, and Velasquez were supposed to be can’t-miss hurlers but only Nola shows any signs of being poised for a breakout. Arieta is gone and they’ll need Moore–back from Japan–or the chronically injured Wheeler to step up. Don’t bet on it.

 

NL East Predictions:

 

1. Braves:                  They will be pushed, but I like their unflappable consistency.

2. Nationals:              If their staff is healthy, this is a Wild Card team.

3. Mets:                      I’m not as impressed by their pitching as most.

4. Phillies:                  Prove you’re a good team, or start over.

5.  Marlins:                Bunch of unknowns, but it won’t shock if they overtake the Phillies.