2023 American League Preview:
AL East:
Is this the year the Blue Jays finally win the East? If it’s not, something went wrong. Springer, Bichette, Guerrero, Chapman, Belt, Merrifield, etc. is a way better top-to-bottom lineup than anyone else in the East can send to the plate. The likely pitfall would be pitching, which is just an injury or an off-year away from being a real problem. The balanced schedule will help the Jays enormously as they tend to falter against the East as the season progresses.
The Red Sox get my vote for the team mostly likely to surprise. Devers, Turner, and Yoshida are professional hitters. Success, though, depends on the health of pitchers whose recent health has been shaky–see Kluber, Paxton, and Sale–and the performance of guys playing out of position. Arroyo at second and Hernandez at short might be the shakiest middle infield in MLB. The 4-5 pitchers haven’t shown much thus far and Casas might not be what they think they have.
Boston isn’t good enough to win the AL East, but they could battle the Orioles for a Wild Card. Baltimore is quietly building a nice young lineup–Mullins, Rutschman, Mountcastle, Santander–but the pitching could turn out to be mediocre unless Grayson Rodriguez is ready to shine.
The Rays are actually my pick for a Wild Card. You might not recognize some of the staff, but Tampa always seems to get a lot out of pitchers who are not household names. Their biggest problem, I suspect, will be scoring enough runs. Franco may become a superstar but he’s not there yet, and aside from Arozarena there’s not much power.
The Yankees are my pick to have MLB’s most disappointing season in 2023. The Brian Cashman era simply needs to end. This is a poorly constructed team that needs to eat salaries of underperforming veterans, promote promising kids from the minors, and build a roster that gets on base more often. Their offense is Aaron Judge and a bunch of plow horses. Judge is great, but he won’t hit 62 homers again. It’s time to chuck the analytics staff and end the “launch angle” nonsense. The Yankees also need to fire their conditioning staff; the spring DL already looks like triage at a MASH unit. It would not surprise me to see New York tank. It also won’t surprise if Cole can’t pitch without Spider Tack, or if Cortes can’t duplicate 2022. Trading for Montas was just dumb.
AL Central:
Let’s not sugarcoat it. Someone has to win the Central, but no one in it is likely to go far in the offseason. On paper, the White Sox have the best pitching and firepower. This, of course, is what everyone said last year when they failed to make the post-season. I’ll go with them, but not with a lot of confidence. My thinking is simply that Anderson, Robert, Benintendi, Moncada is a better lineup than anyone else in the Central. Cease and Giolito are good pitchers, as is Kopech if he stays off the DL, which he hasn’t done very often. Getting Clevinger will help, but I’m not a Lance Lynn fan.
There is no better manager in all of MLB than Terry Francona, so never count out the Guardians. It boggles the mind, though, to think of what Cleveland could do with a budget like that of the Yankees. Kwan, Naylor, Bell, and Ramirez are the offense, but they need more. Bieber and Quantrill are solid hurlers, but they’ll need better performances from Civale, Plesac, and McKenzie.
Never bet on the Twins. If they win the Central it will be because others collapse. They actually intend to play Joey Gallo!!? Buxton finally had a good year in ’22 but I still don’t believe in him. Wanna bet whether Correa stays healthy? Not much stick in Minnesota. No great arms either unless you think Ryan’s stats last year are for real. I don’t.
After a glimmer of hope the Tigers have taken a step backward. Not a single one of their starters threw a complete season last year. Their best hope for staying out of the basement is if the Royals suck more. That could be the case.
AL West:
This has the potential to be the most competitive division in the American League insofar as competing for Wild Cards goes. (The West could break the hearts of East Coast fans by taking all of them.) The Astros are both defending World Series champions and the class of the division, especially after stealing Abreu from the White Sox. No one can match their pitching. Javier, Urquidy, Valdez, and Garcia might sound like a Latino comedy act, but you won’t laugh when you face them. I hate the Astros, but Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Tucker, Pena, and the rest are simply formidable.
Will the Angels finally get Trout and Ohtani into a postseason? They’d better, or Ohtani will be gone. As always, though, the rest of the lineup fails to inspire unless you think Renfroe and Ward will duplicate last year’s numbers. Rendon was a bust and headlines a most-likely-to-be-dumped list. The pitching staff will frighten no one. Think 33-year-old Anderson will go 15-5 again? Nah!
If the Angels falter again, it’s back-up-the-van time and the door opens for the Mariners. Seattle, though, is another team that’s as likely to induce tears and cheers. If Ray or Castillo get injured, anyone reading this can try out to become a Mariners pitcher. The lineup will either be solid or have more holes than a fishing net and I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Julio Rodriguez is a fine player, but the Jays are good at evaluating talent and they shipped Teoscar Hernandez out of Canada, which makes me think they know something.
The Rangers would be my pick for the most surprising team in the division, if the pitching holds up. I wouldn’t hold my breath for deGrom to say healthy or Perez and Heaney to be more than mediocre. I like Semien, Seager, and Garcia but there are big holes in the lineup. All of which is to say, the Rangers could easily go from promise to a see-you-in-2024 team. But they won’t finish last.
The Athletics are shedding players and salaries like Gypsy Rose Lee in cleats. They are playing for one thing only: attracting few enough patrons to move the club to Las Vegas. It will be a good year if they lose fewer than 100 games. Without looking, name an Oakland starting hitter or pitcher. Exactly!
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