| The only reason to see baseball in Cincinnati this year |
What
We've Learned:
1. I said that both the Astros and the Twins had loaded farm systems, but I thought Houston was a year
away from being MLB-ready and Minnesota 2-3. Both have faltered a bit lately,
but would be in the postseason were the season to end today. Score one for youthful
exuberance over elderly caution.
2. Analytics
and sabermetrics aren't dead, but they're coughing up blood. The bean
(Billy Beane?) counters told us the following teams would be in contention: Red
Sox, White Sox, Padres, Mariners, and Blue Jays. Ummm…no! And the team that invented painting teams
by the numbers, Oakland, is execrable. Sabermetrics is proving to be a Dodge Neon,
not a Maserati; it beats walking (building from the ground up), but you can't
take it across country (a 182-game season). Scouts 5-Accountants 0.
3. Joe
Girardi is seldom mentioned for Manager of the Year, but I'd give it to him
right now. Many experts picked the Yankees for last and I picked them for
fourth. I still think they'll falter, but raise your hand if you had them in
first place at All-Star break. Girardi's handling of the bullpen and New York's
perpetual injury woes has been masterful.
4. There
is no clear favorite to win the World Series. In the NL, the Nationals have
pitching galore, but their offense is often a no-show, the Cardinals are solid
everywhere but spectacular almost nowhere, and the Dodgers are as likely to
implode as explode. The team that's slowly gathering pace that no one wants to
face is the Giants. The Mets, Pirates, and Cubs? Nice teams, but more holes than a
bum's underwear. The American League is such a welter of mediocrity that
everyone is within 8 games of a Wild Card bid. Parity 22, Talent 8.
5. Teams Most in Need of a Make-Over: Quite
a few. Let's start with those that spent a lot of money and have gotten little
from it: Boston, Detroit, Toronto, San
Diego, and Seattle. Next toss in
those whose rosters look great on paper and like dog poop on the grass: Marlins, White Sox, and Reds.
6. Managers Likely to Be Fired Soon: Number
one is John Gibbons in Toronto, who
has never been a good manager. Lloyd
McClendon ought to be sleepless in Seattle. Brad Asmus doesn't have the Tigers by their tails, and Pat Murphy in San Diego and Dan Jennings (Milwaukee) will likely take the sword
for management misjudgments. Boston's John
Farrell is vastly overrated, but probably safe until the off-season when he
and General Manager Ben Cherington
might both walk the plank. Look for the bottom feeders to produce a few firings
as well—though it's not their fault.
This
and That:
Here in New England the question on
everyone's lips is, "What's wrong with the Red Sox?" I admit I picked them (though I'm a Yankees fan). I
did, however, sound the warning that things could go sour if the Red Sox: (a)
spent too much money on too little talent, and (b) overrated that talent. This
is precisely what has happened—as has my prediction that Red Sox defense would
be an oxymoron. (Hanley Ramirez in
left is truly a scary thing!)
The
break results are of a franchise in a sinkhole as bad the one from which Theo
Epstein once rescued them. Remember how Red Sox Nation used to moan about the
Yankees $200 million roster? I'd have to say the Yanks spent their $200 mil more
wisely. Rusney Castillo was signed
for a king's ransom so the Yankees wouldn't take him—he's 28 at Pawtucket and
the future looks dim. Pedro Sandoval?
Not for the money he's getting paid. Hanley? Only if the Sox admit that Big Papi is Big Pooped Out and put
Ramirez at DH. Other duds: Masterson,
Napoli, Victorino—otherwise known as Time Marches On. Remember when Jackie Bradley, Daniel Nava, Allen Craig,
Henry Owens, and Joe Kelly were
"important pieces?" Now each is likely to exit in a fire sale. That
may true also of Blake Swihart, who
was exposed too early.
The
AL East is so weak the Red Sox could still make a run. I still think they will,
but the odds are very low. If one accepts the view that it will take 86 wins to
capture the East, the Red Sox would have to play .600 ball (44-29) to get
there. Possible, yes, but only two teams have played .600 ball thus far (St. Louis and Kansas City). They have to play on West Coast after the break
(Angels and Astros), then come home to see the Tigers. Before the season ends
they'll also have to maintain a .600+ record versus Tampa (9 games), the
Yankees (9), Kansas City (3), the Mets (2), the Jays (6), and the Orioles (6).
If this is my team, I'm selling assets.
As for the Yankees, I'm stunned they are in first. Give credit where it's due:
Girardi, A-Rod as a man possessed,
and relative health for RBI machine Teixeira.
Miller and Betances have been spectacular, though reliever Justin Wilson is a candidate for team
MVP. And then there's the unheralded but rock steady Brett Gardner.They'd need to go just 39-35 to win 87 games.
Can
the Yankees win the East? They just might, but I'm still not sold. The
temptation is there to gut the minors for a rental of Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto and the addition of 2B Brandon Phillips. I wouldn't do it as
this still wouldn't be a championship club and assets such as Luis Servino, Jake Cave, and Aaron Judge are the future. Plus, the Yanks should save the cash to chase Bryce
Harper in the off-season. The more prudent course would be to trim dead wood (Beltran, Capuano, and
Drew) and let the kids play. There's
zero excuse to waste a roster space on Drew—even an A-ball prospect would be an
upgrade.
On paper, the Blue Jays have the best roster but—as I said in March—I'm done with
these underachievers. The Orioles are
a bat or two short, and the Rays'
offense is even worse. The Yankees have a legitimate shot in the East. So too
do the Red Sox, though they'll need to play like it's 1967 to get there.
The rest? The Mets have surprised and their young pitchers have been healthy (so
far). With David Wright not in the
lineup, though, I don't see much firepower. The revamped Braves manage to stay interesting, if not good. The Marlins are a mess right now and it
wouldn't hurt to change managers (again). The Phillies are, simply, a joke at present. Changing GMs should help,
though other teams want Cole Hamels,
not detritus such as Howard, Revere,
Ruiz, or Brown.
The
Royals in the World Series? It might happen. I still don't think so. The Twins need to stay the course and be
patient, the Tigers need to clean
house (including the GM), the Indians, like
Cleveland, needs a miracle; and the White
Sox should admit their plan was flawed, keep Chris Sale, and put the rest out to competitive bid.
The Cardinals
will, as usual, be in the post
season—perhaps with division rivals Pittsburgh
and the Cubs, though the latter
has my vote for most likely to be knocked out of Wild Card contention. The
Cubbies are responding to GM Epstein's grand plan, but the Giants still strike me as a superior team and
the Cubs are still young bears.
The Reds and the Brewers have rosters full of guys with
inflated reputations that need to go elsewhere.
The
Angels have overtaken the Astros and the franchise
did the right thing twice already this season: unloaded addict Josh Hamilton in
an addition-by-subtraction move, and kept skipper Mike Sciosia and fired the GM instead. I think they'll hold on in
the AL West and that the Astros' wondrous first half will get them into the
postseason, which will be brief. The Rangers
have been about what I expected—as have been the A's, whom I predicted would be odiferous. The Mariners are a franchise in trouble. There's no way they can retain
GM Jack Zduriencik, so why wait?
Here's an audacious suggestion: offer Robbie
Cano back to the Yankees. His salary is too rich for Seattle and he'd bring
a bounteous exchange.
The
Dodgers have the NL West in hand, though Puig is still a jerk and is wearing
out his welcome. Lots of holes in
LA, including the fact that rookie phenom Pederson
is hitting long homers but not his weight, and Jimmy Rollins looks washed up. The Rockies and Diamondbacks
are going nowhere slowly, and the Padres
are the NL version of the Mariners:
lots of splashy singings for lines such these—Upton .253; Kemp .250, Middlebrooks .215. He's on the DL, but
when do we slap the "bust" label on Myers?
Rob
Weir
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