MLB 2017: The West
American League:
The AL West looks to be a two-team race between the Rangers
and the Astros, with the Mariners the dark horse.
If Darvish stays healthy and Perez bounces back, the Rangers should win on the strength of
pitching (Hamels, Griffin, Ross) and a fearsome lineup: Lucroy, Andrus, Beltre,
Gallo (who will arrive soon), Profar, Carlos Gomez, Choo, Odor…. Not many easy
outs here. But the staff isn't deep and that could be the Achilles' heel.
If the Rangers falter, the Astros are poised as they have a deeper staff: Keuchel, McCullers,
Morton, McHugh, Musgrove…. The hitters beyond Altuve, Beltran, Springer, and
Reddick are more serviceable than fearsome and they are putting a lot of faith
in a McCann bounce-back, which I find unlikely. Let's see if Correa is the real
deal, or a flash in the pan. Ditto a full year of Yuli Gurriel. MiLB pitchers
Martes and Paulino are on the cusp.
The Mariners have
been "promising" for so long they're a "Cry wolf!" team.
King Felix heads the staff and Iwakuma is a wonderful #2, but they need
Gallardo and Paxton to pitch to their promise, and for Smyly either to figure
it out or take a hike. Tony Zych is a name to watch. Do they have a closer? As
for hitters, there is Cano, Seager, Cruz, Valenica, and pray for walks.
The Angels have a
Mike Trout problem. He's the best player in baseball, but he's only the Angels'
MVP if they trade him. The rest of the lineup is a declining Pujols and Carlos
Perez, the overrated Revere and Maybin, and guys who need career years for the
Angels to dream of third place (Calhoun, Escobar, Espinosa, Cron). It's moot,
though, as the Angels pitching is two wings and a lot of prayers: Nolasco,
Richards, Skaggs, Shoemaker. Name to watch: RHP Kenyan Middleton, but the
Angels have the worst prospects in MLB. Trading Trout would change that.
Not much hope for the Athletics.
The pitching is Damaged Goods Sonny Gray, Graveman, and guys you've never
heard of and probably won't by mid-season. The lineup is cast-offs such as
Ploufee, Lowry, Joyce, and Rajal Davis, plus a few legitimate MLB players, Vogt
and new pick-up Khris Davis. Looks like a 100-loss team to me unless there is
lightening in a minor league system rated so-so.
National League:
Kershaw, Maeda, Ryu, Kazmir, Hill, and a rehabbed McCarthy.
A lineup of Grandal, Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Turner, Puig, Pederson, and
a deep minor league roster that threatens to displace several of these guys.
Let's put it this way: The Dodgers could
lose the NL West, but it's hard to
see anyone would can beat them.
The Giants, as
usual, can pitch: Bumgarner is the best in MLB if Kershaw isn't, plus there's
Cueto, Samardzija, Cain, and Matt Moore to round out a staff that rivals the
Dodgers. Alas, as usual, the Giants lineup underwhelms once one gets past
Posey, Belt, Crawford, and Pence. This team could really use a bat or two.
The Rockies are a
perpetual mystery team. Their ace out of spring training is Tyler Chatwood.
Ever hear of him? He won 12 games last year and that should tell you a lot. The
Rocks will hit homers at high altitude, especially guys like Desmond, Reynolds,
Blackmon, Arenado, Story, and Carlos Gonzalez. It's hard to know what this team
will do. The Rockies have the 6th best MiLB system in baseball and I
expect to see a busy shuttle between Albuquerque and Denver.
If the Rockies' young players stumble, the Diamondbacks could sneak into third,
though they are the Mariners of the NL in terms of unfulfilled promise. On
paper they are a good team, if Corbin,
Greinke, Miller, and Walker pitch like they can. The hitters include the
magnificent Goldschmidt, plus Owings and Lamb. The problem is there are too
many holes in between.
Patience is in order in San Diego as the Padres are rebuilding after their foolish
attempt to rely on guys who never lived up to their hype. Picking up Jared
Weaver was a step backward, but Cahill, Richard, and Chacin are decent arms, if
healthy. Who will hit? Count me among the Wil Myers Unbelievers. Poaching
Solarte from the Yankees was one of their better moves. Luis Torrens could be
another. Three rookies will start and expect to see lots of kids shuttle in and
out; the Pads have the third best farm system in baseball. Hard to know what to
make of the Padres; last or third is equally plausible, but I think they are
2-3 years away.
Predictions:
AL
West: Rangers, Astros, Mariners, Angels, A's
NL
West: Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Padres.
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