2020 How the AL East Was Lost

High fives for the Rays?

The self-styled experts and Vegas betters–ever notice there aren’t many  rich sports betters?–are picking the New York Yankees to go to the World Series this year. Says here they are wrong (and I’m a Yankees fan).

The Yankees were cheated out of two trips the Series by the now-disgraced-but-not-really-punished Houston Astros. Those were better teams than the 2020 edition. The Yankees lost the 2020 season because of what they did not do midsummer 2019. You read that right: 2019. In a season in which Aaron Boone should have been manager of the year for patching together a roster from the walking wounded, the Yankees failed to fire their medical and conditioning staff mid-season and waited until the winter to do so. The result is that they will open this season with an outfield of Gardner, Tauchman, and Frazier. Okay, but the $44 million outfield of choice­–Stanton, Judge, and Hicks–is on the disabled list. Maybe the late start will work to their advantage, but none of the three is likely to be 100%.

The DL also includes Severino, their # 2 starter, and Paxton, their # 3. It’s a damn good thing they signed (Gerrit) Cole to be their ace, or the Yankees would be done before the first pitch is thrown. Now the starters will be Cole, Tanaka, Happ, and then what? (Jordan) Montgomery will probably be # 4 and the last spot will probably come from farmhand contenders such as Clarke Schmidt, Jonathan Loáisiga, and Mike King. (It won’t be their # 1 prospect, Devi García who is raw and inexperienced.) With Britton, Chapman, Green, Kahnle, and Ottavino, New York still has MLB’s best bullpen; the pen is going to work hard early and is in danger of early burn out. Plus, everyone has to throw to Gary Sánchez, who is a terrible defender and a much overrated bat.

The lineup still features the wonderful DJ LeMahieu, wunderkind Torres, Voit, surprise star Urshela, and the return of on-base machine Andújar. All of the DL stars except Severino (Tommy John surgery) will return at some point as will suspended pitcher Domingo German, but who knows how effective any of them will be? (Paxton is a critical piece.) To free up salary to sign Cole, the Yankees had to dump a fine backup catcher (Romine) for a career minor-leaguer (Higashioka) and Gregorious, whose replacement is Tyler Wade, who no one in baseball likes as much as the Yankees. By the time players on the DL return, the Yankees might well be fighting for a Wild Card.

I pick the Tampa Bay Rays to win the AL East. If Snell and Glasnow are healthy, they will anchor a staff that already has Yarbrough, Morton, Chirinois, and a minor league system full of lively arms. The question with the Rays is simple: Will they score enough runs? Let’s be charitable and say there are some hopefuls such as Tsutsugo, Choi, Adames, and (José) Martínez. The outfield, other than Kiermaier, isn’t full of sluggers. In baseball, though, great pitching generally prevails over great hitting; far too many of New York’s feared bats lie splintered on the DL.

Are the Boston Red Sox the AL East dark horse? Call the Red Sox the if team of the East. If Sale isn’t a $30 million washed-up dead arm, if (Eduardo) Rodríquez’s 2019 output wasn’t a fluke, if Eoavaldi is healthy, if (Martin) Peréz manages to miss more bats than he hits, if Chavis lives up to his promise, if Devers doesn’t regress, if Verdugo isn’t a broken NL fraud, if Peraza adjusts to the AL, if Bradley hits above is weight (200), and if the Sox fill out the back of their rotation, they might surprise. Potentially, a lineup with Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, and JD Martinez is stronger than that of the Rays and the DL Yankees. That’s a lot of “ifs,” though, and the odds are low that enough of them will pan out. One if has already imploded; Sale is headed for Tommy John surgery.

In my heart of hearts, I think the Toronto Blue Jays are a year away from making serious noise, but sometimes good news arrives early. Get used to the names Bichette, Biggio, and Guerrero Jr. as they will soon be the best infield in baseball. The current outfield is the so-so Grichuk and hope that some young players will emerge. The catching is so thin that non-roster invite Caleb Johnson might make the team. Not good, because the pitching has more holes than Dunkin' Donuts. Giles is a tested closer, but you first have to get that far. It’s Roark, (Matt) Shoemaker, (Chase) Anderson, and Yamaguchi, a 32-year-old rookie from Japan. Anyone quaking in their boots? Didn’t think so. This has to change before the Jays are for real.

The only reason to discuss the Baltimore Orioles is to say how badly we feel for Trey Mancini and Alex Cobb. No one seems to know what’s going on with Orioles’ management. It’s sad to see such a once-proud franchise sink to such depths.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1.    Tampa Bay

2.    New York

3.    Boston

4.    Toronto

5.    Baltimore