AL West Preview

The Mariners might be good enough to pack Safeco field with rabid sleepless in Seatle fans.

This year features something new: the first time in recent memory in which the Angels aren’t expected to win the AL west. The breakdown, according to last year’s finish—

Los Angeles Angels: They lost their ace and two top offensive players in the offseason. To win a lot of things need to go right. Scott Kazmir and Jared Weaver need to stop being head cases. Joel Pinero needs to prove he can pitch in the AL. So does Brian Fuentes. Fernando Rodney has to stop being a stiff. Erick Aybar needs to become the star he’s supposed to be, not the clueless kid he was in the postseason. Brandon Wood must fill Chone Figgins’ shoes. Kendry Morales’ 2009 season cannot be a fluke. Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter, and classy pickup Hideki Matsui must stay healthy. That’s a lot to ask and if Mike Scioscia can make all of that happen, forget the Hall of Fame—canonize him.

Texas Rangers: As always, the Rangers will score runs in bundles. Their lineup is anchored by All-Stars Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, and Josh Hamilton. They added Vlad Guerrero. Waiting in the wings to blossom are kids like Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus. In Saltalamacchia and Teagarden they have the best catching duo in baseball. This lineup is flat-out menacing.

Also as always, it’s all about pitching for the Rangers. On paper it looks very good: emerging ace Scott Feldman, Rich Harden, and some guys who have great stuff—Brandon McCarthy, Derek Holland, and lefty Matt Harrison. The latter three need to step it up, though, especially McCarthy, who has carried the can’t-miss tag for so long that it looks like a misspelling. The joker in the deck is the weather—hale, plump pitchers get turned into raisins by the hot Texas sun.

Seattle Mariners: The Mariners are on a lot of lists to steal the West and with reason. Felix Hernandez and Cliff Lee are certainly one of the best 1-2 staffs around. If Erik Bedard is healthy, the Mariners are going to be awesome. Look also for a good year from the underappreciated Ian Snell.

Opposition catchers are going to have nightmares contemplating a lineup that has Ichiro and Chone Figgins at the top. The rest isn’t as scary as the Rangers, but guys like Casey Kotchman, José Lopez, Franklin Gutiérez, and Jack Wilson feast on pitchers who take them for granted. Ultimately the Mariners need to get production from some guys who haven’t exactly been breaking output quotas. This would be the time for Ken Griffey Jr. to put whatever he has left on the table. Eric Brynes needs to transition from promising to productive, and Milton Bradley is down to his last chance; if he implodes or underachieves in Seattle no one will touch him in the future.

Oakland Athletics: Oakland was last year’s sexy pick. Not this year; it’s time to stop calling Billy Beane a genius as Oakland will be lucky to avoid a hundred losses in 2010. It looks very bad right at the top. The two guys being counted upon to anchor the rotation, Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer, have medical histories so long that no one else wanted them for scratch-and-dent prices. If either of them goes down, there’s not much lurking on the depth chart.

As for the lineup, there’s not much there either. Eric Chavez can thump the ball, but his health makes Sheets seem like an iron man. Mark Ellis is serviceable at second and Kurt Suzuki is a decent catcher. Jack Cust hits them out of the park, on those rare occasions when he doesn’t whiff. Then it’s NL wash-outs Jake Fox and Kevin Kouzmanoff. The outfield’s keystone is the horribly overrated Coco Crisp, who is surrounded by youngsters who hit about what Crisp did last year: .228. The best that could happen is if Crisp got off to a good start and Beane can trade him before he reverts to bumitude.

Predicted Finish:

My brain tells me the Rangers win, but I’m playing a hunch. If I’m wrong, the Mariners slip to third:

(1) Mariners, (2) Rangers, (3) Angels, (4) Athletics.