Not the Big Red Machine, but maybe enough to win the NL Central.
There are no great teams in this division, just some okay ones. This means it may well be the most competitive division in baseball and should be fun to watch. Five of its six teams have a shot at winning. (Will somebody please move the Astros to the AL West and restore balance to the leagues?) Here they are in order of their 2009 finish:
St Louis Cardinals: They have baseball’s best player in Albert Pujols but they don’t have much to go with him, unless you buy into the Matt Holliday hype, which I don’t. Skip Schumaker, Ryan Ludwick, and Yadier Molina aren’t bad, but they’re not great either. Pitching could be a problem, especially if Chris Carpenter gets injured again. Adam Wainwright is a burgeoning ace but after that it’s stiffs like Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse.
Chicago Cubs: On paper they’re much deeper than the Cardinals. A staff of Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, Gorzelanny, and Randy Wells isn’t bad. Carlos Marmol needs to mature as a closer, though. The Cubs’ problem is that they simply can’t predict what to expect from the mercurial temperaments on this club. The only steady guys are Mike Fontenot and Ryan Theriot. Is Zambrano an ace or an ass? Are Aramis Ramirez or Xavier Nady healthy? Is Derek Lee a fraud? Is Alfonso Soriano Milton Bradley without the good glove? The only thing known for certain is that Fukodome is a bust. Time to eat that contract and give the job to some kid who might be decent. If I’m the GM, this roster gets a half-year look and it’s not working, I blow it up.
Milwaukee Brewers: A lot of people like this team. Not me. How can you get excited about a team that projects Jeff Suppan as its top starter? And don’t try to tell that Randy Wolf is the answer. The rest of the staff consists of guys with losing records and ERAs of around six: Dave Bush, Doug Davis, Manny Parra. Look down the roster and you’ll see more mold than a wine cave: Greg Zaun, Craig Counsell, Trevor Hoffman… Yes, they have Prince Fielder (overrated), Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, and Corey Hart. Not enough.
Cincinnati Reds: If healthy—a bif if—this is easily the best pitching staff in the division and among the best in the NL. It’s headed by young studs Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto, and is fleshed out by Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, and Homer Bailey. Francisco Cordero is (sometimes) a very fine closer. The everyday lineup, however, inspires far less confidence. Jay Bruce is a typical mash-it-or-sit-down guy. Alas, he’s more the latter, but he’s still the best outfielder the Reds have. First baseman Joey Votto needs to prove the hype and Scott Rolen needs to silence those who say he’s done. Brandon Phillips is solid and Orlando Cabrera can still pick it, but there’s no one on this team who’s so consistent that you’d pitch around them.
Houston Astros: If you think the Brew Crew has retreads, check out the ‘Stros: Brian Moehler, Brett Myers, Kuzuo Matsui, Pedro Feliz. They’ve even tossed the ball to Mike Hampton, who probably dropped it on his toe and broke it. What gives the Astros some hope is a pitching staff that’s headed by Roy Oswalt (if healthy) and Wandy Rodriquez, and a terrific outfield of Carlos Lee, Michael Bourn, and Hunter Price, the latter two of whom can burn the base paths.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Another hundred loss season is in the offing for a season whose only open question is whether the Pirates will win more games than the Padres. Hopefully the Pirates will trade the three guys who deserve better: outfielder Andrew McCutchen and pitchers Zach Duke and Paul Maholm. Special GM Dummy Award for picking up two busts, Bobby Crosby and Ryan Church, and for throwing dimes at three guys who are never going to amount to much: Lastings Milledge, Delwyn Young, and Jose Tabata. Consumer Tip: Don’t’ pay MLB prices to see these guys. Wait eight weeks, then drive an hour east to Altoona and watch them play in the AA uniforms they’ll be wearing by then.
*Predicted Order of Finish*
(1) Reds, (2) Cardinals, (3) Astros, (4) Brewers, (5) Cubs, (6) Pirates
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