The NL East belongs to the Phillies.
This may be the closest thing to a sure bet as baseball provides. On paper the Phillies are the class the division (and league) by a mile. The only way they are dethroned is if they suffer catastrophic injuries or meltdowns. In order of last year’s finish:
1. Philadelphia Phillies: If they had managed to keep Cliff Lee while adding Roy Halliday, the Phils would be overwhelming favorites to win the World Series. If Cole Hamels gets his head out of his butt, they’ll still have the best 1-2 in the NL, J. A. Happ is poised to bloom, and they’ve got ageless wonder Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, and some almost-ready kids on the farm. Question marks? I can’t see that Jose Contreras adds anything and it’s time to hand the closer role to Ryan Madson and forget about Brad Lidge.
If Placido Polanco can play third, add him to a mix of Howard, Utley, and Rollins.; only the Yankees have a more potent infield. The Phils’ outfield—Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth—doesn’t get enough credit. It too is one of the best in MLB. Catcher Carlos Ruiz isn’t flashy, but gets the job done. It’s hard to see how this lineup doesn’t blast its way to a division title.
2. Florida Marlins: Let’s get this out of the way: I hate this cheapskate franchise and would love to see it moved or folded. Twenty-four of its forty-man roster make the MLB minimum, not because the team is losing money, but because its owners use revenue-sharing dough to pay off their purchase price. Once you get past Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu the lineup is a bunch of “who?” guys, and all three—plus fine young outfielder Ross Cody, who beat the team in arbitration—are available for cheap prospects and cash. I want the Marlins to fail. They won’t, however, because there’s cut-rate talent on this club. Pitcher Josh Johnson is a stud. If Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez recover their form, their staff will be strong. If not, though, the Fish might stink. People forget that if you subtract the Marlins’ 11-1 start to the 2009 season, they were a sub-.500 team the rest of the way.
3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves’ mix of not-quite-proven kids and maybe-past-their-prime vets makes this one of the hardest teams in baseball to call. Young arms Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens look really good and there are more promising kids on the cusp. Also looking good is catcher Brian McCann and a youthful outfield of Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth, and Melky Cabrera, the latter of whom should feast on weaker NL pitching. The infield won’t dazzle anyone, but Escobar and Infante are steady. But there’s much about the Braves that is problematic. Billy Wagner? Toast. Is oft-injured Tim Hudson worth $15.5 million? Nope. There’s no way that over $12 million should be wasted on Troy Glaus and, painful though it may be, the wonderful Chipper Jones may be past his sell-by date; in any event, Jones needs to do better than .264 with 18 homers and 71 RBIs to justify his massive contract. This team could contend for a wild card or be lost in the wilderness by All-Star break.
4. New York Mets: Let’s not mince words—there are only two guys on this team you’d want in a New York minute: lefty Johan Santana and third baseman David Wright. You might take a flier on closer Francisco Rodriquez, but not for what he’s getting paid. Most of the rest is hype over hope. Shortstop Jose Reyes ought to be another Jimmy Rollins; instead he’s a head case—just like Jeff Francoeur. Carlos Beltran is making $19 million to drive in 48 runs, and at $6.2 million Luis Castillo is the most overpaid second baseman in baseball. After Santana, the pitching is a nightmare. Mike Pelfry’s stats are ugly, but they’re better than those of Oliver Perez, the biggest stiff since John Dillinger was mowed down in Chicago. Oh yeah, there’s $10 million invested in Kelvim Escobar, who had exactly one decision last year. “Brilliant” (gag!) offseason maneuvers include being suckered-punched into picking up the bloated contract of uber-bum Gary Matthews. Jr. and bidding against themselves to overpay Jason Bay, with his bad shoulder. I hope that David Murphy and Fernando Tatis get traded; they play with heart and deserve to be on a team with a pulse.
5. Washington Nationals: If the kids develop quickly the Nats might get out of the basement, but this is basically a “who cares?” franchise that should have never left Montreal. Pudge Rodriquez will have his work cut out with a staff anchored by retreads such as Scott Olsen and Jason Marquis, rehabs like Chien-Ming Wang, and projects such as Tyler Clippard. Stephen Strasburg is being looked upon as the savior but, let’s be honest, how many “can’t-miss” guys have? A franchise tag is a lot of pressure on a kid who has never hurled an inning in MLB. The Nats have too many players expected to perform miracles. Ryan Zimmerman is a very good player, but he’s not the superstar the Nats hype him to be. Christian Guzman is decent, but not for $8 million, though he’ll do more to earn that amount than Adam Dunn, who always has more Ks than hits. Elijah Dukes can poison a clubhouse and this is probably his last shot—vote him most likely to end up in the penitentiary. Good pickup in Josh Willingham, though.
Predicted Order of Finish:
(1) Phillies, (2) Braves, (3) Marlins, (4) Mets, (5) Nationals. (If the kids develop, the Nats have a chance of beating out the Mets!)
1. Philadelphia Phillies: If they had managed to keep Cliff Lee while adding Roy Halliday, the Phils would be overwhelming favorites to win the World Series. If Cole Hamels gets his head out of his butt, they’ll still have the best 1-2 in the NL, J. A. Happ is poised to bloom, and they’ve got ageless wonder Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, and some almost-ready kids on the farm. Question marks? I can’t see that Jose Contreras adds anything and it’s time to hand the closer role to Ryan Madson and forget about Brad Lidge.
If Placido Polanco can play third, add him to a mix of Howard, Utley, and Rollins.; only the Yankees have a more potent infield. The Phils’ outfield—Ibanez, Victorino, and Werth—doesn’t get enough credit. It too is one of the best in MLB. Catcher Carlos Ruiz isn’t flashy, but gets the job done. It’s hard to see how this lineup doesn’t blast its way to a division title.
2. Florida Marlins: Let’s get this out of the way: I hate this cheapskate franchise and would love to see it moved or folded. Twenty-four of its forty-man roster make the MLB minimum, not because the team is losing money, but because its owners use revenue-sharing dough to pay off their purchase price. Once you get past Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Jorge Cantu the lineup is a bunch of “who?” guys, and all three—plus fine young outfielder Ross Cody, who beat the team in arbitration—are available for cheap prospects and cash. I want the Marlins to fail. They won’t, however, because there’s cut-rate talent on this club. Pitcher Josh Johnson is a stud. If Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez recover their form, their staff will be strong. If not, though, the Fish might stink. People forget that if you subtract the Marlins’ 11-1 start to the 2009 season, they were a sub-.500 team the rest of the way.
3. Atlanta Braves: The Braves’ mix of not-quite-proven kids and maybe-past-their-prime vets makes this one of the hardest teams in baseball to call. Young arms Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens look really good and there are more promising kids on the cusp. Also looking good is catcher Brian McCann and a youthful outfield of Matt Diaz, Nate McLouth, and Melky Cabrera, the latter of whom should feast on weaker NL pitching. The infield won’t dazzle anyone, but Escobar and Infante are steady. But there’s much about the Braves that is problematic. Billy Wagner? Toast. Is oft-injured Tim Hudson worth $15.5 million? Nope. There’s no way that over $12 million should be wasted on Troy Glaus and, painful though it may be, the wonderful Chipper Jones may be past his sell-by date; in any event, Jones needs to do better than .264 with 18 homers and 71 RBIs to justify his massive contract. This team could contend for a wild card or be lost in the wilderness by All-Star break.
4. New York Mets: Let’s not mince words—there are only two guys on this team you’d want in a New York minute: lefty Johan Santana and third baseman David Wright. You might take a flier on closer Francisco Rodriquez, but not for what he’s getting paid. Most of the rest is hype over hope. Shortstop Jose Reyes ought to be another Jimmy Rollins; instead he’s a head case—just like Jeff Francoeur. Carlos Beltran is making $19 million to drive in 48 runs, and at $6.2 million Luis Castillo is the most overpaid second baseman in baseball. After Santana, the pitching is a nightmare. Mike Pelfry’s stats are ugly, but they’re better than those of Oliver Perez, the biggest stiff since John Dillinger was mowed down in Chicago. Oh yeah, there’s $10 million invested in Kelvim Escobar, who had exactly one decision last year. “Brilliant” (gag!) offseason maneuvers include being suckered-punched into picking up the bloated contract of uber-bum Gary Matthews. Jr. and bidding against themselves to overpay Jason Bay, with his bad shoulder. I hope that David Murphy and Fernando Tatis get traded; they play with heart and deserve to be on a team with a pulse.
5. Washington Nationals: If the kids develop quickly the Nats might get out of the basement, but this is basically a “who cares?” franchise that should have never left Montreal. Pudge Rodriquez will have his work cut out with a staff anchored by retreads such as Scott Olsen and Jason Marquis, rehabs like Chien-Ming Wang, and projects such as Tyler Clippard. Stephen Strasburg is being looked upon as the savior but, let’s be honest, how many “can’t-miss” guys have? A franchise tag is a lot of pressure on a kid who has never hurled an inning in MLB. The Nats have too many players expected to perform miracles. Ryan Zimmerman is a very good player, but he’s not the superstar the Nats hype him to be. Christian Guzman is decent, but not for $8 million, though he’ll do more to earn that amount than Adam Dunn, who always has more Ks than hits. Elijah Dukes can poison a clubhouse and this is probably his last shot—vote him most likely to end up in the penitentiary. Good pickup in Josh Willingham, though.
Predicted Order of Finish:
(1) Phillies, (2) Braves, (3) Marlins, (4) Mets, (5) Nationals. (If the kids develop, the Nats have a chance of beating out the Mets!)
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