It’s been a while since MLB Central teams have generated much excitement. The Cubs won the World Series in 2016 and the Royals in 2015, but the Cubs might have been an outlier. Could 2025 see some Central Division team go deep in the postseason? I rather doubt it.
AL Central
1. Detroit Tigers. KC is the safer pick, but I’m playing a hunch with Detroit. Unlike the Tigers of the 1980s/90s, they won’t slug their way to a title. Aside from (Riley) Greene, the hope that Keith will develop fast, and the frustrating Torres coming over from New York, Detroit’s lineup seems a bit thin. But they might not need to score in bunches with a staff anchored Skubal, Mize, Flaherty (good pickup), and hot prospect Jobe. I’m going with the great-pitching-wins theory.
2. Kansas City Royals. They have the best hitting in the Central: Witt, Renfroe, Pasquantino, India, Perez… The pitching is also decent: Lugo, Ragan, Wacha, Lorenzen. They also have two big question marks in the outfield and one in the closer role. They are good enough to win if the Tigers falter.
3. Minnesota Twins. A team that constantly disappoints. It’s a collection of hitters with one star, Correa, and others that are merely okay. That list includes Buxton, who has a terrific glove but overall is one of the most overhyped players in MLB. Lopez is a good pitcher and (Joe) Ryan occasionally turns in a nice performance, but there’s a reason why the Twins were 21st in ERA last year.
4. Cleveland Guardians. Vogt is a smart young skipper and he’ll need to be to prevent Cleveland from taking a big step backward this year. It’s hard to see a repeat of last year’s 92-win season with a lineup whose only pop is Ramirez, now that (Josh) Naylor is in Phoenix–unless they think 42 year-old Santana will revert to his 2019 self. Kwan gets on base, but who else now that Gimenez is a Blue Jay? Lots of young pitchers in the pipeline but aside from Lively, no projected starter won more than 8 games last year.
5. Chicago White Sox. Call it a successful year it the ChiSox lose only 100 games. They have a strong minor league system but a lot of future talent will need to mature overnight to prevent a repeat of last year’s nightmare 121-loss season. What does it tell you when Benintendi led the team in two offensive categories and their best pitcher is now in a Red Sox uniform? Expect more roster turnover than wins.
NL Central:
1. Milwaukee Brewers: The only decent team in the Central, which is far from saying the Brew Crew is great. They will get production out of Hoskins, Chourio, Contreras, and Yelich. Peralta, Cortes, and Woodruff are decent if the latter has put his injuries behind him. Quintana will soak up innings. The aptly named Close is one of the best relievers in baseball.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates are another hunch team. Skenes is one of the best pitchers in baseball, Chandler and (Jared) Jones are highly regarded rookies, and Keller has yet to find his groove. If and two of the three clikc, the Bucs can make some noise. If they have to lean on Heaney, the Pirates will head for Davy Jones Locker. Reynolds is a pro hitter; (Oneail) Cruz, Kiner-Falefa, and Bart are decent players, and McCutcheon and Pham are seasoned vets. Finishing above .500 would be a major step forward. They may have to jettison Yankee castoffs in the bullpen to get there.
3. Chicago Cubs look like a reverse copy of the Pirates. The Cubs will hit with Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki, Swanson, (Justin) Turner, and newly acquired Tucker in the lineup. How far they go will depend on how well they pitch. Taillon seems to have found a home on the North Side. If Boyd can find the same level of comfort and touted rookie Horton becomes half the pitcher Skenes is, the Cubs could pass the Bucs and possibly grab a Wild Card. Pressly is an excellent closer.
4. Cincinnati Reds are the team I’m least certain of in all of baseball. On one hand, they have a strong farm system; on the other, three youngsters they hoped would be starting pitchers are on the IL. This makes (Hunter) Greene or (Nick) Martinez the de facto ace and neither is a sure thing, nor is Singer a surefire #3. Luckily, in Stephenson and Trivino they have excellent catchers. De La Cruz is as fast as greased lightning but his bat cooled last year. Lux coming over from LA should help, as will Hays (from Baltimore) when he gets off the IL. Right now, the #2 bat is Candelario and that’s not ideal. The closer? Who knows? The wild card is the Francona factor. He excels in tough situations and his teams are always entertaining.
5. St. Louis Cardinals. They sure went from contenders to pretenders in a hurry. They are the opposite of what you’d think by looking at them on paper. They have proven pitchers like (Sonny) Gray, Mikolas, Matz, and closer Helsley yet were 16th in ERA last year. The lineup doesn’t seem very strong once one gets past the scrappy Donovan, (Willson) Contreras, and disgruntled (and allegedly declining) Arenado, yet were 8th in batting average. Most, including me, see them as repeating 2024’s 5th place finish, yet… if they rebounded and were in contention, I’d be only mildly surprised. That could happen if a few pitchers (Mathews and Hence) make the jump from the minors to the majors.
Rob Weir