American League Central Preview

Detroit seems like a lock for this division but that, of course, is what everyone said about the Red Sox in the AL East last year. There are reasons to think the Tigers could be had by the tail. In order of last year’s finish:

Detroit Tigers:

Good: Man, can they hit! Miguel Cabrera was already a wrecking machine and they’ve added Prince Fielder. There’s also Delmon Young, Alex Avila, a suddenly rejuvenated Jhonny Peralta, and emerging talents such as Clete Thomas, Ryan Rayburn, and Don Kelly. Jose Velarde saved all 49 chances last year and seldom had to when Cy Young winner Justin Verlander pitched.

Bad: Knee surgery will sideline Victor Martinez for the season. Rick Porcello doesn’t inspire as a number three (14 wins, but an ERA of almost 5), and there’s not much beyond him. Cabrera moves to third; he’s bad at first and will be worse on the hot corner.

Hot Seat: Doug Fister needs to repeat his Motown Mojo (8-1 after leaving Seattle last season), or the Tigers will need to club their way to victory. Austin Jackson fell to earth last year (.249) and needs to dust himself off. Fielder has to prove the money wouldn’t have been better spent on pitching. (It would have!)

Prognosis: Keep the runs down and the Tigers can be tamed. Even with Verlander Detroit was just 17^th in team ERA last year and there’s no reason to think that will improve dramatically. To me this looks like a team that will get you through September, but not through October.

Cleveland Indians:

Good: Derek Lowe is a good pick up who will help Justin Masterson, another one that Red Sox allowed to get away. Asdrubal Cabrera is an All-Star shortstop. Travis Hafner still has power and Shin-soo Choo is vastly underrated.

Bad: Sad = bad: Grady Sizemore is hurt once again. There are lots of holes in this line up and the staff is thin.

Hot Seat: Carlos Santana has a big bat, when he makes contact, which isn’t frequently enough. Ditto Matt LaPorta. Fausto Carmona isn’t himself; in fact, he’s actually Roberto Heredia and is at least three years older than he claimed. Plus he’s on the restricted list. The Indians may void his contract. The sudden decline in effectiveness has some wondering who Ubaldo Jimenéz really is.

Prognosis: Help awaits on the farm, but the Tribe is likely to take a few steps backward this year.

Chicago White Sox:

Good: Addition by subtraction–no more Ozzie at the helm. Danks and Floyd, if they stay, is a good top of the rotation. Alexis Ramirez is stable at short. Paul Konerko and Hall of Fame should start appearing in the same sentence.

Bad: The staff isn't deep enough. Pierzynski couldn’t throw out David Ortiz. Subtraction by subtraction–losing Buerhle, Carlos Quentin, and Sergio Santos. Matt Thronton is untested as a closer.

Hot Seat: Dylan Axelrod is being asked to become a top starter and Phil Humber simply must live up to his promise, or the ChiSox are going nowhere, especially if Jake Peavy has physical setbacks. There are no less than four players who are in their make-it-or-break-it years: Gordon Beckham (.230), Alex Rios (.227/12/44), Kosuke Fukadome (.262 but no power), and Adam Dunn (who hit a record-setting low of just .159 last year).

Prognosis: This may be the hardest team in baseball to predict. The ChiSox could win 88 games or lose 100; neither would surprise me.

Kansas City Royals:

Good: Picking up both Joanthan Sanchez and Yuniesky Betancourt were good moves. Billy Butler is scrappy and Alex Gordon finally put up great numbers (.303/23/89). Eric Hosmer and Luke Hochavar have big upsides. Few realize this, but the Royals were 4^th in league in average and 6^th in RBIs.

Bad: And they were 27^th in ERA. Therein lies a tale. It didn’t help that the highly touted Joakin Soria blew 8 (of 35) save chances. Then he blew out his shoulder and will miss 2012.

Hot Seat: The entire pitching staff. To a lesser extent, Jeff Francoeur. He had a fine year last year (.285/20.87) but his track record is that a bad year follows a decent one. At some point patience is exhausted.

Prognosis: Every spring we hear that the Royals are “turning it around” and so it appears–until May becomes June. They play in Missouri and I say, “Show me!” They should improve, but they could be the 2011 Orioles of the Midwest.

Minnesota Twins:

Good: What’s good is what’s bad: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. If healthy, the Twins do better; if not, way too much rides on guys such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham. (The latter is a nice pick up, though not for $6 million.)

Bad: The health of the M & M boys. Losing Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel won’t help this lineup. When Carl Pavano (9-13/4.30) is your “ace,” pitching is a problem. No one on the staff broke double digits in wins last year. The lineup is filled with lots of young guys–read cheap–who probably ought to be in AAA ball.

Hot Seat: General Manager Terry Ryan is listed as “interim;” need to know more? Matt Capps is being asked to take over Joe Nathan’s spot as closer. The B & B boys (Baker and Blackburn) may be more important to the Twins’ fortunes than the M & M boys. Alas, they’ll have to elevate their pitching to reach mediocre. Francisco Liriano is atop the most-likely-to-be-traded list and nobody is going to bid high.

Prognosis: It was shocking how bad the Twins were last year, but nobody should be surprised in 2012. It would take a meltdown for any team to boost them from the basement this year.

Predictions:

1. Tigers (but they don’t make the World Series)

2. White Sox (predicted with little conviction)

3. Royals (a hunch)

4. Indians (too many missing pieces, but could climb if Sox and Royals don't)

5. Twins (too little of too much)

American League West Preview

This one is a two-team race between the Rangers and Angels. With the AL East so loaded with teams likely to beat up on each other, it’s highly likely that whichever team doesn’t win the West will get one of the Wild Card berths.

Texas Rangers:

Good: They are reigning AL Champs and, even after losing C. J. Wilson, still have plenty of arms: Holland, Harrison, Lewis, Feldman…. They also have big hitters: Napoli, Béltre, Cruz, Kinsler, Michael Young, Hamilton, Cruz, and the very underrated David Murphy. I, for one, love Alexi Ogandi’s arm.

Bad: The pitching is solid, but it’s not world beating. It’s typical AL West--lots of number two and threes looking for a one. Joe Nathan as the closer? Yeah, three years ago.

Hot Spot: Yu Darvish will either make people forget about Wilson, or bring out their best Hideki Irabu analogies. Josh Hamilton is running out of second chances. Will he be an MVP or just another drunk? Elvis Andrus is supposed to superhuman, not mortal. He can run, but gets thrown out 1/3 of the time and 25 errors is a lot. I’d personally give up a bit of range and play Michael Young (.338) at short.

Prognosis: If Darvish is the real deal, they repeat; if not, Wild Card.

Los Angeles (which is really Anaheim) Angels:

Good: They got Albert Pujols and there simply isn’t a better player. Nor is there a better manager than Mike Scioscia.There are lots of young players on the cusp: Trumbo, Trout, Bourjos…. Howie Kendrick is a very useful and versatile player. The pitching staff has the potential to be solid: Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Dan Haren, and newly acquired C. J. Wilson.

Bad: It also has the potential to disappoint, as it so often has. The catching isn’t great. There are lots of off-the-hill payroll drains, starting with Wells and Hunter. The closer is Jordan Walden, who blew 10 of 42 chances last year.

Hot Spot: Bobby Abreu is already complaining about a diminished role (righly so in my view). Where does Kendry Morales play? Not many guys cross the diamond from first to third. Erick Aybar… There’s something about this guy that bothers me. (Maybe it’s a seeming lack of baseball sense.)

Prognosis: If the chemistry is right, the Angels can supplant the Rangers. A lot must go right, though.

Oakland A’s:

Good: Frankly, not much. If healthy, Dallas Braden. If he plays to potential, Brian Feuntes. if the scouting reports are correct, Yoenis Céspedes.

Bad: When you turn to a rookie and to Manny Ramirez (after his 50-game suspension) for salvation, that speaks volumes. The A’s gave away Gio Gonzaléz, who led the staff in all categories last year. They didn’t resign Josh Willingham, who led in homers and RBIs, or Cliff Pennington, who led in average. The starting outfield might be Crisp, Gomes, and Josh Reddick (whom they acquired for giving up their closer). That can’t be good.

Hot Seat: General Manager Billy Beane. Look, if this team finishes close to .500 I’ll reevaluate my opinion that his Moneyball image is mostly hype. Brandon McCarthy. No one can figure out why this guy isn’t a great pitcher. Céspedes comes with a lot on his plate.

Prognosis: This looks like a last place team to me. Maybe Manny will have a change of heart and help this club, but smart money is that it’s Tampa redux.

Seattle Mariners:

Good: Even an aging Ichiro is a great hitter. Miquel Olivo is a serviceable receiver, which Jesus Montero will not be. What the latter will be is the next coming of Jay Buhner. Brandon League is satisfactory in the pen. Expect Hector Noesi to be decent (but not spectacular). And, of course, there is Félix Hernández, one of the game’s best hurlers.

Bad: This team simply doesn’t hit. Losing Franklin Guiterrez to injuries won’t help. The M’s questions this year will be the same as those of the team that lost 95 games last year: After Ichiro, can anyone hit the broad side of a barn? After King Felix, who can close down the opposition?

Hot Seat: General Manager Jack Zduriencik traded his number two starter (Pineda) to the Yankees. He’d better be right about Montero. Justin Smoak simply must do better than last year’s .234/15/55. It may already be too late for Chone Figgins.

Prognosis: The Mariners will probably avoid the basement for the simply reason that they, unlike the A’s, actually have a few premier players. But it isn’t going to be pretty.

Predictions:

1. Rangers

2. Angels

3. Mariners

4. A’s

Hugo a Visual Treat

Hugo (2011)

Directed by Martin Scorsese

Paramount, 126 mins. PG

* * *

If you missed it in the theater, Oscar Best Picture nominee Hugo is now on video. Although its superb lighting suffers a bit on the small screen, you won’t miss anything by not seeing it in 3D. In fact, it’s probably a better film not seen in 3D as the gimmicks would detract from the film’s surface beauty.

Hugo marries two unlikely genres, adolescent movies and early films. The movie is set in 1931, and centers on 12-year-old Hugo Cabret (Asa Butterfield), who lives high above a Paris railway station and meticulously cares for the elaborate clocks that once dominated the grand edifices from the age of steam. (Think of the clock in D’Oursay, now an art museum, though the station is supposed to be Montparnasse.) Hugo must stay out of sight for several reasons. His widowed master clockmaker father–played in flashback sequences by Jude Law–is tragically killed in a fire and all that stands between Hugo and the orphanage is the guardianship of his drunken uncle Claude (Ray Winstone), who has been AWOL for months. The station is patrolled by a gamey-legged but eagle-eyed inspector (Sacha Baron Cohen), who delights in apprehending miscreants and homeless boys and sending them off to the children’s’ home. Hugo has to be doubly careful, as he’s also been stealing food to survive and nicking machine parts from the station’s toyshop owner (Ben Kingsley) in the hope of restoring an antique automaton that his father was working on when he died.

Scorsese does a lovely job of filming the small prosaic dramas that take place inside the station: the station’s hustle and bustle, the fading elegance of a café where Django Reinhardt plays and Salvador Dali sips coffee, the inspector’s shy courtship of a flower seller, and their autumn-of-life counterpart--the rotund Monsieur Frick (Richard Griffiths) and the snippy-dog-toting Madame Emilie (Francis de la Tour). In the hands of a lesser director, Hugo could have easily degenerated into sentimental mush; especially once Hugo strikes up an unlikely friendship with the toyshop owner’s daughter (Chloë Grace Moretz) and the two embark on a series of misadventures. Luckily, Marty Scorsese is behind the camera, not some paint-by-the-numbers Disney hireling. The film won five Oscars, three of which were for its stunning visual effects (including best cinematography). Whereas Disney might have bathed this film in lurid colors, Scorsese is not afraid to paint from a dark palette. The interplay between shadow and light is very effective, especially when Scorsese contrasts the darkness of the clock gears and loft spaces with the well-lighted and more sumptuous interiors of the station.

And then there’s the film’s other drama. Like The Artist–a far superior film–Scorsese pays tribute to the silent film era, though he reaches even further back in time. The toyshop owner, as is often the case of movie sad sacks, harbors a secret: he’s none other than Georges Méliès, the pioneer magician and filmmaker whose Trip to the Moon (1902) is regarded as one of cinema’s earliest gems. It’s Scorsese’s turn to engage in boy-like wonder once the Méliès back story comes out and we see–also in flashback–early films being made and their dreamlike but cheesy sets being transformed by the camera. There are also numerous references to numerous old films for devoted cinema buffs, including a pretty obvious take on Harold Lloyd in Safety First.

It would be fair criticism to argue that the film’s two halves often feel like a forced fit. There are times in which Scorsese can’t seem to make up his mind if he wants to make a wholesome family picture or a historical detective movie. It’s also abidingly clear that he’s indulging his lifetime passion for the childlike magic of movies. There were times, in fact, in which I wanted to yell, “Marty! Cinema Paradiso has already been made! That said, even with its flaws, Hugo is a charming little film. And because it’s Scorsese, you know it will look good.

Enter the Haggis Continues to Shift Its Roots

ENTER THE HAGGIS

Whitelake

Firebrand Entertainment

* * *

Indie sensation Enter the Haggis reminds me of another Canadian band, Great Big Sea, in that it has slowly shed its Celticesque rock and reel persona to become more of a pop rock ensemble. Those expecting skirling pipes dueling with fiddles will hear only traces of that on Whitelake, as ETH mines other roots sources. “Pseumoustophy,” for example, sounds like a cross between James Montgomery and Neil Young, and “Of a Murder” (a musing on John Kennedy?) moves between café-like somber moods and dramatic rock reminiscent of the Electric Light Orchestra. “Let Me Go” is classic ETH in its rowdy bar-song feel, but the addition of trumpet, cello, and more lush arrangements throughout signal a direction change.

Of particular interest on Whitelake is the manner in which ETH mashes the various roots it plucks from musical soil. “Headlights I & II” opens with an art rock feel, but roughly midpoint it transitions into a rock-tinged-with-bluegrass arrangement. The next song is “The Basket or the Blade,” whose title sounds more ominous than the actual content. It’s actually a delicate and pretty song in which keyboard notes fall like rain drops and recounts the mutual probing of psyches that takes place at the start of a potential new relationship. Other selections mix soft sounds with harder breakouts. “Getaway Car,” for example, could easily be a pop single. It uses to quieter melodies to build to a soaring refrain that you won’t easily dislodge from your brain. In fact, the only song that doesn’t entirely work is the band’s cover of Canadian legend Stan Rogers’ lake tanker tragedy “White Squall.” It’s a narrative tale custom-made for folk singers, but it’s also one that relies on voice for drama. These days, ETH is all about the arrangement.

The new release won’t be on the street until April, but the band is on tour throughout the eastern US. Catch them and pick up a copy.

Rob Weir

Matt Flinner Trio Release Thoughtful and Skillful

MATT FLINNER TRIO

Winter Harvest

Compass 4569

* * *

Some music makes you move, and some makes you muse. File the Matt Flinner Trio in the latter category. The trio consists of Flinner on mandolin, Eric Thorn on standup bass, and Ross Martin on guitar, the latter not to be confused with the Scottish singer/songwriter of the same name (which is easy to do as they are roughly the same age and each plays percussive-style guitar, though this Ross Martin does more flat-picking). Winter Harvest is the trio’s second release. Like the first, it’s a genre-bender that’s most likely to get labeled “Newgrass,” a term that came into popularity in the late 1960s to describe a hybrid between bluegrass and jazz. It’s also a maddeningly imprecise term. In the case of the Matt Flinner Trio, the music is bluegrass in the sense that it is string music, has chord and melodic structures associated with Americana music, and features breakout instrumentals, mostly from Flinnerand Martin. It is jazz in sensibility, though, with those very Americana melodies serving mostly as a launching pad for provocative departures, improvs, and mood evocations. Flinner notes that the compositions on the new album evolved from long winter roads. There’s no reason to doubt that, though the introspective and meandering nature of many of the tunes is also in keeping with the ethos of contemplative jazz. The moods range from the bouncy “Big Bug Bop” and the dreamy “Bitterroot” to the giddy “Raji’s Romp,” the latter inspired by an NFL player’s first career touchdown. This is one of those efforts I call a chameleon CD—it changes colors depending upon whether you listen to it while driving, as background music, or alone in a dimly lit room on a cold summer night with a Scotch in hand.—Rob Weir

National League East Preview

This should be an interesting division if, for no other reason, it has four intriguing teams that manage to play just well enough to disappoint those who expect them to do more. And then there’s the Mets, from whom one should expect nothing. In order of last year’s finish:

Philadelphia Phillies:

Good: A pitching staff of Blanton, Kendrick Worley, Hamels, Lee, and Halladay isn’t good–it’s phenomenal. Roy Halladay is unquestionably the best pitcher in MLB, Justin Verlander’s 2011 season notwithstanding. Hunter Pence is a wonderful player and Shane Victorino is one of the few players on the squad with fire in his belly.

Bad: What happened to the bats? Ryan Howard’s health is a huge question mark. If he doesn’t come back 100%, the Phillies will need all they can get from their staff. And here’s saying that Domonic Brown will never be the stud he’s projected to be.

Hot Seat: Phillies’ GM Ruben Amaro made curious choices in the offseason. The team needed hitters and he signed Jonathan Pabelbon instead of resigning Ryan Madson, a zero sum game. I’m not getting that. Rollins and Polanco need to be more Punch and less Judy. The bus stops here for Dontrelle Willis; if he flops, he’s gone from MLB.

Prognosis: The pitching staff is too good for the Phillies to not be in the hunt, but there’s something unsettling about this team. They will win the East, but don’t be surprised to see them exit early in the playoffs.

Atlanta Braves:

Good: Even after trading Derek Lowe, a staff headed by Hanson, Jurijens, and Hudson is pretty good. Freddie Freeman didn’t get much ink when Pujols and Fielder were in the NL, but he may be an All-Star first baseman. Brian McCann is an All-Star catcher.

Bad: Coming off a historic end-of-the-year collapse isn’t a good thing. Lowe’s departure opens slots for young pitchers, but guys like Ascenco, Minor, and Teherán are unproven.

Hot Seat: I suspect manager Fredi Gonzalez doesn’t have a lot of front office cred left and could be fired by mid-June. Chipper Jones keeps coming back and he keeps getting hurt. If he goes down again, he won’t be back. What happened to Dan Uggla, whose .233 average was plug ugly. Jason Heyward was supposed to be a beast, but .227/14/42 looks more like a chipmunk.

Prognosis: This is a promising but fragile team that could soar or swoon. Methinks the latter more likely, but the talent is there.

Washington Nationals:

Good: The minor league system looks solid. Prying Gio Gonzalez from Oakland was grand theft. Not many have heard of young Michael Morse, but check out his numbers from last year: .303/31/95. Edwin Jackson was a good pickup. John Lannan lost 13 games last year, but his ERA was 3.70 and he has a good arm. The Nats also stole Tyler Clippard from the Yankees. Ryan Zimmerman is one of the league’s premier third basemen.

Bad: Losing veteran Livan Hernandez was worse than it appears. He was one of the few mentors on a young staff. The Nats are rushing Bryce Harper to the bigs and may regret it. Who was the last 19-year-old star? Al Kaline? I’m not nuts about Drew Storen as a closer.

Hot Seat: Speaking of rushing players, did someone say Stephen Strasburg? You’ve got to root for this young man, but it’s just as likely that he’s the new Mark Fidrych. Another unfortunate who must prove his health is Chien-Ming Wang. I don’t think the Nats opened the bank so Jayson Werth could put up this line: .232/20/58. And then there are the chronic underachievers: Mark DeRosa and Adam LaRoche. If they don’t improve the Nats should stop signing guys with two capitals in their surnames.

Prognosis: Washington has an outside chance at finishing second, but instinct tells me this team is a few horses short.

New York Mets:

Good: Can’t think of much. David Wright is a fine (and maligned) player and Ike Davis is emerging. Dillon Gee looks to be a serviceable number three, but he may be asked to be a one.

Bad: Aside from the fact that ownership is so broke it parks on side streets, the continuing health struggles of Johan Santana has to be number one. Top players have jumped (or have been pushed from) the sinking Mets ship, including Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, and Carlos Beltrán. Heck, even so-so players (Chris Capuano) have left. If fortune smiles on him, Wright will get shipped out as well.

Hot Seat: Jason Bay could be then poster boy for Target, as he should be for hitting .246/12/57. Will Mike Pelfrey ever be better than mediocre?

Prognosis: If this team doesn’t lose at least 100 games, make Terry Collins Manager of the Year.

Miami Marlins:

Good: Heath Bell could close the gates of hell. Aníbal Sánchez is the one the Red Sox let get away. There is a lot of superb young talent on this team: Gaby Sanchez, Emilio Bonafacio, Giancarlo (Don’t Call me Mike) Stanton. Omar Infante is 30, but he’s good too. There’s hope the Marlins’ new digs will bring new fortune.

Bad: The Fish are the sexy pick to go to the postseason and that’s often the kiss of death. If Josh Johnson heals, they’ve got a better shot; without him, prospects dim. John Buck doesn’t inspire as catcher. I like Mark Buerhle, but he’s not a $14 million pitcher. I’m baffled by the Ozzie Guillen mystique; to me he’s a walking demotivator and one of the biggest frauds to ever manage the game.

Hot Seat: Hanley Ramirez is an enigma with the potential to make Guillen swear in three languages. He should be among the game’s immortals, but will he ever grow up? Speaking of which, two words: Carlos Zambrano. Jose Reyes is a fine player, but Miami seldom spends $11 million on one player, so he’d better have a great season. Ricky Nolasco had an ERA of almost 5 last year and Chris Volstad was putrid. They can’t win without these guys.

Prognosis: I’m not buying the Fish Cheer. There are too many unanswered questions. If the Braves choke on the bone again there’s a glimmer of hope, but all the gears must click for the Marlins to make the postseason.

Predictions:

1. Phillies

2. Braves

3. Marlins

4. Nationals

5. Mets

National League Central Preview

The Reds will win or Dusty Baker will be unemployed.

This is another wide open division. Three teams could win it, two will battle for fourth, and one has less of a prayer than the American Atheists Society. In order of last year’s finish--

Milwaukee Brewers:

Good: Losing Prince Fielder will hurt, but with Braun, Hart, and Weeks the Brew Crew can still mash the ball. Aramis Ramirez was a good pick up and will solidify a scary middle lineup. Gallardo, Greinke, and Wolf are a good 1-3—beyond them, though, the pitching thins out.

Bad: Losing the guy who has led the team in homers and RBIs can’t help. George Kottaras as the everyday catcher? I don’t think so. Losing Yuniesky Betancourt may be worse than losing Fielder.

On the Hot Seat: Asking Mat Gamels—he of the .115 average after he was called up—to take Fielder’s position is asking a lot. Shaun Marcum needs to be consistent, which he’s never been. Can Axford save 40+ again? Number one on the list, though, is Ryan Braun. Most people think he beat a banned substance suspension on a technicality. If he slumps, he’s going to get an earful everywhere he goes.

Prognosis: The Brewers will be decent, but I don’t see them repeating as NL Central champs.

St. Louis Cardinals:

Good: It’s always nice to start the season by collecting your World Series ring. Most teams would happily trade their 1-5 staff for Garcia, Wainwright, Lohse, Westbrook, and the magnificent Chris Carpenter. They’d also love to have players with the heart of David Freese and Yadir Molina.

Bad: Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball and he’s now an Angel. That’s as bad as it can get. Wainwright may not be fully recovered from arm trouble.

On the Hot Seat: Matt Holliday and newly acquired Carlos Beltrán have to replace King Albert’s production, and Lance Berkman has to take his position. Can Berkman duplicate his back-from-the-dead 2011? Is Allen Craig more than a pinch hitter? Does Furcal have anything left?

Prognosis: Repeating is hard and it’s not in the Cards.

Cincinnati Reds:

Good: Votto, Phillips, Bruce, and Rolen (when healthy) can flat out murder the ball. Adding Ryan Ludwick makes them even more dangerous. Trading for Mat Latos and signing Ryan Madson were superb moves.

Bad: The pitching staff is maddeningly inconsistent, especially Bronson Arroyo.

On the Hot Seat: The Reds were the best team on paper in 2011 and finished third in a weak division. Dusty Baker is on a short leash and could easily get an early axe if the Reds falter. The entire pitching staff except Matos will be trade bait if it underperforms. Chapman has a fabulous arm, but they’ve said the same thing about lots of guys who never figured it out. Homer Bailey? He’ll either be a number three this year or he’ll be out of baseball.

Prognosis: It’s now or never for the Reds. I think this may be their year.

Pittsburgh Pirates:

Good: Neil Walker, Clint Barnes, Nate McLouth, Jeff Karstens… if by “good” you mean “decent.” I expect pitcher Daniel McCutchen, lifted from the Yankees, to add his name to the list. Not allowing Garrett Jones to go to the Yankees was also good.

Bad: The Pirates are, simply, mediocre at best. Barajas as the starting catcher? Ugh!

On the Hot Seat: Even though the Yankees are paying most of A.J. Burnett’s salary, he needs to show he’s more than a jerk. Bedard and Morton need to prove they’re not broken beyond repair. The entire outfield—Jose Tabata, Andrew McCutcheon, McLouth—has worn the “hot prospect” label beyond its sell-by date.

Prognosis: It’s been 19 years since the Pirates had a winning record. Call it an even 20.

Chicago Cubs:

Good: Addition by subtraction—dumping head case Carlos Zambrano. With Garza, Dempster, and Samarzija the pitching won’t stink. When healthy, Kerry Wood will prevent Carlos Marmol from having the close games and that’s a very good thing.

Bad: Everything else not named Geovany Soto will stink. Opposing pitchers will beg to face this lineup on short rest. Losing Aramis Ramirez makes it even worse.

On the Hot Seat: Alfonse Soriano has his mail forwarded to the hot seat. I’d be shocked if he’s not traded for salary relief and Cracker Jacks before the All-Star break. Sonnastine and Maholm need to prove they can pitch at a level higher than AAA. Reed Johnson must be more than a spare part and Anthony Rizzo needs to mature fast.

Prognosis: Good enough to stay out of the basement, but Theo Epstein needs an act of God to make this team competitive.

Houston Astros:

Good: Not much. Quintero looks like he’ll be a good catcher. The ‘Stros unloaded Hunter Pence and Michael Bourne; they were about all that qualified as good on this team.

Bad: Let’s not mince words—the Astros are horrible. Wandy Rodriquez is their ace, a guy no contending team would extend to acquire last year because he’s a number 3 starter at best. Red Sox castoff Kyle Weiland will probably make the staff. Jed Lowrie will be the shortstop. Jack Cust is on the roster. Oh dear!

On the Hot Seat: The Astros tried dearly to offload Carlos Lee and failed. He will (unfairly) be the target of fan frustration. J.A. Happ wanted to be a starter and was 6-12. Ouch! But the guy who will really be in the maelstrom is General Manager Jeff Luhnow. This team will be horrible in the NL Central. Just imagine how bad they’ll be when they shift to the AL West in 2013.

Prognosis: The Astros lost 106 games last year. Consider each game less than that to be a blessing.

Predictions:

1. Reds

2. Cardinals

3. Brewers

4. Pirates

5. Cubs

6. Astros