End of April Political Potpourri

The spring semester has ended and it's time to air some ideas that have been rattling in my brain for a while.

Those who read these pages know I've found Barack Obama to be a maddeningly uneven and indecisive leader. Sometimes I wonder if he has the makeup to take on Republicans. I will say, however, that Jeffrey Goldberg's piece in the April edition of The Atlantic induced newfound respect for the president's foreign policy. The president at the very least has the cojones to take on fellow Democrats. Goldberg details Obama's grand plan, one summed up by the phrase: "Don't do stupid shit." The phrase is trite, but the president's rationale for what he has chosen to do and not do is among the more reasoned articulations of foreign policy I've heard in quite a while. It will also give pause to those who trumpet Hillary Clinton's foreign policy expertise. You should read this piece, but among the highlights are:

·      Obama recognizes that Saudi Arabia is a problematic ally and has taken steps to break the cozy relations it has had with previous administrations.

·      Obama has, on several occasions, shut down warhawks in his administration, chief among them Susan Rice, Leon Panneta, and Hillary Clinton. This applies also to a lesser degree to John Kerry as well, whom he took to the woodshed for forgetting the lesson he learned in Vietnam.

·      Obama has told all who encourage him to launch new ventures that it would be a good idea to end the foolish wars Bush undertook before starting new ones!

·       Obama considers Pakistan a failed state. (And who can debate that?)

·      A big revelation: Obama thinks that we are on the cusp of a post-oil world, that the Middle East of diminishing importance to America, and that we ought to be shifting American priorities toward Asia.

·      That Syria is of little significance to America, ISIS poses no direct threat to us, and there is little about Syria that would justify US intervention.

·      That he wants the United States to stop fighting proxy wars for Europe and Japan.

There is much more. Read this piece.

My students some times ask me if George W. Bush was the "worst' president in American history. I used to say "no" and cite a few I thought were much worse: James Buchanan, Franklin Pierce, Andrew Johnson, Ulysses S. Grant, Warren G. Harding, maybe Nixon…. After reading Neck Deep: The Disastrous Presidency of George W. Bush By Robert, Sam, and Nat Perry, I need to reevaluate. I'll stick with Buchanan as worst, but I'm ready to move Dubya into the 2 or 3 slot. The Parrys offer compelling evidence that the Bush family has systematically sold America down a Saudi river, that they kowtowed at every step to oil companies, that the 2000 election was blatantly stolen, that the Iraq war was a fraud, that Bush and his team rewrote evidence to suit their needs, that they slandered John Kerry in 2004, and that they were driven by an evangelical apocalyptic agenda that placed the United States in grave danger. Other revelations:

·      Colin Powell was no hero, rather an ambitious flunky willing to spout lines he knew to be false for the sake of personal promotion.

·      That the media cravenly favored Bush over Gore and Kerry and traded objectivity for "access" to the White House.

·      That there was systematic program to isolate and marginalize any voice that dared disagreed with predetermined security conclusions.

·      That Bush was willing to put Valerie Plame in physical danger to punish her husband, whose investigation into an alleged Saddam Hussein dirty weapon scheme determined it wasn't true.

·      That Bush was a climate change denier.

·      That Bush had plenty of advance warning about 9/11 but he and  his team lacked the skill to interpret the data.

·      That ideology, not fact, drove most White House decisions.

·      That the U.S. Constitution was little more than a minor inconvenience in the ruthless pursuit of a national security state.

If Sweet Tree prevails, this will...

There's a brouhaha boiling in the maple syrup vats of Vermont. A conglomerate, Sweet Tree Holdings, has jumped into syrup production and moving it toward a mass-production business model. It assures small producers that it will be good for all producers and is no threat—soon we'll have new products (like maple-flavored water), hybrid syrups, and new overseas markets. This comes from a firm that's a holding company spin-off of an insurance firm. Sure—pull the other one; it's got bells on it. If there is a bigger fraud ever perpetuated on American workers than free trade, I wouldn't know what it would be. I heard the same BS when I was a kid and saw Hershey buy or impose its corporate discipline on virtually every dairy in south-central PA. Now a family dairy farm is as rare as US steel mill. Governor Shumlin and Vermont state regulators need to put the kibosh to this disaster-in-making for Vermont's iconic product. Don't bet on it. He's a Democrat, after all–the world's first spineless mammal.  

...give way to this.

April Album of the Month: The Westies

THE WESTIES

Six on the Out

* * * * *

The Westies are quickly becoming one of my favorite rock bands. They're based in New York City, thought you can be forgiven if you guessed they're from West Texas. Six on the Out is a darker album than we heard on their debut West Side Stories and that's saying something. Songwriter, lead vocalist, and linchpin Michael McDermott has a penchant for desperation and desperadoes and they appear in abundance on Six on the Out.

Because of McDermott's Irish roots and his tendency to open morose songs with bits of mandolin or bouzouki, The Westies are said to play Celtic-flavored music. You can hear that on songs such as "The Gang's All Here," where the featured neighborhood cast of characters could be straight off an ill-tempered Irish pirate ship, but a song like "If I Had a Gun" is outlaw country dressed up by an atmospheric rock band sporting a few embellishments by fiddler Heather Horton. And as McDermott builds the ominous tension of the song, he spits out the vocals of lines like "The hunger fuels my soul/The anger fuels my heart/I'm tired of being pushed around/I can't seem to break free/If I had a gun/I might point it back at me" as if he's a whiskey-soaked Bono. Mainly, though, he reminds me of Bruce Springsteen with a huskier voice. Check him out on "Pauper's Sky" or "Santa Fe" and you'll hear the same sort of leave-it-all-on-the-stage rock and roll for which the Boss is known, which a splash of bar band insouciance thrown in.

Horton contributes a touch of optimism when she takes the lead on "Like You Used to Do," but even this little love song has sharp edges—a partner's plea to put aside the anger, the booze, and the disappointments to "love me/Like you used to do." This album is indeed a stroll down dark alleyways—quite a lot of it reminiscent in style to Springsteen's Nebraska release. This album's tales include nods to hookers, ex-cons, future cons, the contrary, and con artists. Among this cast, "Henry McCarty," McDermott's contribution to music's ever-growing Bill the Kid oeuvre, isn't even the most dangerous man in the room. To round off the album, McDermott pours all of his angst into a single song, "Sirens." It's the tragic tale of being orphaned, finding redemption, losing it in a single debauched evening, and just when its antihero thinks it can't get any worse, it does.

Maybe my description makes it sound as if this album is the aural equivalent of wallowing in the mud along Hooligan Highway. It's not. Six on the Out instead has the therapeutic feel of working out anxiety and despair on a sweaty stage instead of an antiseptic social worker's couch. It is raw, honest, and filled with energy and verve. Besides, good rock of all varieties (folk, country, electric, etc.) is supposed to move your soul. If all you want is nostrums, any old sugary pop song will do; this album's sweetness and redemption come with pricks from the razor's edge.

Rob Weir

2016 MLB Preview: American League East

The Jays win by a beak

I'm writing this in early April, but don't be surprised if by the time you read this every team in the AL East is playing .500 ball. Get used to it; it's going to be like that all summer. I guess I'll pick the Blue Jays because no one has consistent pitching and the Jays hit better than anyone in baseball, but you could put these five teams in a random number generator and have as much of a clue as I have about how they'll finish. Flawed teams in a flawed division are like that.

Predicted order of finish: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Rays.

Losing David Price was huge, but if any two of these–Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, and Aaron Sanchez­– live up to their hype, the Toronto Blue Jays should muddle through. But the staff has issues—Dickey is ancient, the bullpen is unimpressive, and the only southpaw is Happ. The Jays may end up winning a lot of 9-7 games, but with guys like Encarnacion, Bautista, and Donaldson, they will indeed win those games. I'm not sure Tulowitzki is durable and there are potential gaps in left and at second, but it looks like the Jays' division to lose for the simple reason that only a few holes gives them a beak up on the rest of the division.

On paper, the Boston Red Sox appear stronger. They'd better be or John Farrell will be unemployed by All-Star break. Betts and Bogaerts look to be special players and even die-hard Yankees fans admire old-school Dustin Pedroia. But, man, are there questions: Can Swihart or Jackie Bradley hit? Do you like Holt as an everyday left fielder? (You shouldn't!) Can Hanley Ramirez handle first base? (I'm skeptical.) Is Travis Shaw a third baseman? (Well, we know Sandoval isn't.) And I don't care if it is his retirement year, everyone outside of Beantown is sick of David Ortiz, his antics, and the free ride Pill-Poppin' Papi got on the PED thing. David Price is fabulous, but ask the Mariners how well it works to have one stud and four duds. Buchholz? If this were my team, if he's still a bust by midyear, I'd trade him to the Korean League for kimchi and dried noodles. I like Joe Kelly okay, but Porcello seems to have relocated to Planet Buchholz. The best hope is restored health to young fireballer Eduardo Rodriquez. Could be first, but could be last again.

The New York Yankees might contend, but that's probably not the real plan. I can envision see this team moving big contracts at the trade deadline to someone who thinks A-Rod, Beltran, Sabathia, Headley, McCann, or Ellsbury can give them a playoff push. And I'm pretty sure the whole point of signing Aroldis Chapman, whom they don't need, was to move him for a fistful of prospects. Even if the Yankees succeed only in moving a few of these guys, if one of them is Ellsbury, call it advantage New York. I really like Gregorius and Castro in the middle of the infield. They, pitching stud Luis Severino and Mashiro Tanaka are the only Yankees guaranteed to be in Pinstripes in 2018. Don't be surprised if another midyear move involves Tanaka undergoing the Tommy John surgery he needs. The Big Plan is to get under the luxury cap for one year,  go after Bryce Harper in free agency, and pair him with Aaron Judge in the outfield. What could wrong? The Yankees might actually be good enough to be in the pennant mix and unable to move enough dead wood.

If the Yankees do dismantle, the Baltimore Orioles should jump them in the standings. With Chris Davis, Adam Jones Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, J. J. Hardy, and Pedro Alvarez, this is the only team that could out slug the Jays. They'd better, because until Gausman and Tillman prove they can win on the MLB level, the O's pitching is as thin as a bulimia ward. Gallardo won't like pitching in the AL and nobody ever knows what will happen when Jimenez takes the mound.

T'is always the same with the Tampa Bay Rays—great pitching, but a lineup that couldn't hit a brick wall with a loaded machine gun. Some have said how much they've upgraded from last year, but if all you've got to offer is Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison, I'm not impressed, and I'm walking Evan Longoria to face them. Chris Archer sometimes looks like he's going to be the AL's Clayton Kershaw, but last year he was 12-13. Can't miss Jake Odorizzi was 9-9.They'll need help from Matt Moore and Drew Smyly.  Call the Rays the Reverse Mirror Jays; they win 3-2 games but get to 4 against them and declare victory. It's time for my annual "Just Move This Team to Montreal" chant. I know, I know—think of the nine thousand Tampa Bay fans who'd be crestfallen.    

{Since writing this, Gallardo and Kelly have gone on the DL, the second of whom matters more than the first as BoSox pitching looks really suspect. And before you get all excited about the O's start, remember that this is April.}

2016 MLB: AL Central Rules

-->

If they pitch, the division will be holding on to the Tigers' tail.

Sorry East Coast baseball fans, but this is MLB’s strongest division. The Royals are the defending World Series champions and they’ll have trouble winning their division, let alone repeat as champs. On the flip side, most analysts (not me) predict the Twins to finish last in the division, but they’re good enough to win the AL East or West.

I’m going out on a limb and picking the Tigers to win the Central, but they could finish last—that’s how good this division is. My dark horse is Cleveland.

Predicted order of finish: Tigers, Royals, Indians, Twins, White Sox.

Welcome to the age of J. D. Martinez, MLB’s next superstar. He joins a Victor Martinez, Ian Kinsler, newly acquired Justin Upton, and Miggy Cabrera in a lineup that can bash with anyone, including Toronto. And I don’t give a damn how many Mike Trout man-love charts you show me, Miggy is the best hitter in baseball—period. If the Detroit Tigers get decent pitching, they will hard to beat. Therein lies the Tigers’ tale. Will Justin Verlander regain his mojo, or is he done? Can Jordan Zimmerman pitch in the AL? What gives with the hot/cold Anibal Sanchez? Did the Yankees fleece the cats on Shane Green and Justin Wilson? Francisco Rodriquez is a heart attack closer. The Tigers will either roar or turn into domestic tabbies.

The Kansas City Royals look weaker on paper, though losing Cueto was no big deal; he didn’t help much anyhow. Zobrist strikes me as the bigger loss. Their lineup doesn’t dazzle; it simply bleeds you like a thousand paper cuts. The only potential weak link 1 through 9 is untested right-fielder Paul Orlando; by now everyone knows what Cain, Hosmer, Gordon, Morales, Perez, Moustakas, et. al. can do. (Although things could go wrong if the Moustakas of 2014 shows up instead of the stud from 2015.) Starting pitching could be the Achilles’ heel if either Volquez or Ventura slip, as the remainder—Ian Kennedy, Chris Young, and Kris Medlen—are reclamation projects. They only need to take a lead into the sixth and KC’s magnificent bullpen, anchored by Wade Davis, will deliver the W, but getting there may be a challenge.

Think the Boston Red Sox would have been so bad the past few years if Terry Francona was still there instead of at the helm of the Cleveland Indians? My instincts say the Tribe is still a few years from planting a pennant atop the teepee and financial woes could lead to a fire sale, but this is no longer a team to be taken lightly. They have some topnotch hitters—Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Francisco Lindor—and a few others (Chisenhall, Gomes, Davis)  who ought to be better than their slash lines. A lot of teams would take a 1-3 staff of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. If they get decent performances from Josh Timlin and Cody Anderson, the Tribe is going to ambush a lot of teams picked to finish above them.

The Minnesota Twins aren’t patsies anymore either! They still have Joe Mauer, a great pure hitter, and they’ve been adding youth—Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Trevor Plouffe, Brian Dozier—who thus far have been relegated to on-the-job-training. When (not if) they figure it out, the Twins will be dangerous. No one knows what Korean import Byung Ho Park will bring to his namesake, but if he’s 70% of what’s advertised, it’s a good signing. Pitching is the problem, once one gets past Phil Hughes, who found his stride in the Twin Cities. I think we can safely call Ervin Santana a tantalizing fraud by now, and then it’s a matter of how fast Kyle Gibson develops and whether Tommy Milone and Ricky Nolasco can contribute. The Twins could also use a closer upgrade over Glen Perkins. The Twins mantra: Not enough to win, but good enough to compete. {Note: Since I wrote this Buxton went on the DL & the Twins have had the worst start in MLB, but I still think they will be better.}

A few folks see the Chicago White Sox as playoff bound. Not me. The ChiSox have the wonderful Jose Abreu, who might win the home run crown, and Chris Sale, always a Cy Young threat. There are too many question marks after them. Todd Frazier was a good pickup, but he won’t hit 35 homers against AL pitching and especially not in his new home stadium. The rest is guys who are in decline (Melky Cabrera, Jimmy Rollins, Alix Avila) or simply never were all that good (Brett Lawrie, Austin Jackson, Adam Eaton). After Sale, it’s Quintana, Latos, and Danks, which rhymes with tanks, and it’s goodbye on the South Side unless all four pitch like Cy.  

Why You Should Root for Trump: NY Primary Day Special

Before you trash Trump, check out Ted Cruz! 

A lot of liberals are feeling smug that the Donald Trump Express seems to be experiencing mechanical difficulties. I'm tempted to join the cheerful chorus, but these are not normal times. Not when Trump's misfortunes raise the specter of Ted Cruz. Make no mistake—Donald Trump is a crude, arrogant boor and there are invertebrates more qualified to be president than he. Still, he's just an embarrassment; Ted Cruz is actively dangerous.

Historians such as myself often consider analogies most people don't and the current GOP race reminds me the election of 1800. Huh? Let's take a look. That now-archaic institution called the Electoral College settled all early elections. Because voting was restricted to propertied white males, almost nobody voted—just 66,000 back in 1800—and that was the point. The Founders distrusted the masses and the Electoral College existed to make sure that men of "substance and bearing" (their term) could undo a "mistake" by the voters. The real action took place in small caucuses of Federalist leaders who were also electors. This select group debated who the president should be and the second-most popular candidate was VP. They never envisioned an election in which a rival political party would contest power and win, but that's exactly what happened in 1800 when Thomas Jefferson's Democratic-Republicans (today's Democrats) defeated incumbent President John Adams.

The Federalists feared Jefferson, whose radical agrarianism and take on the French Revolution was the opposite of theirs, and they weren't even sure a transfer of power could take place without a violent upheaval. More vexing still was the fact that there was nothing in the Constitution about political parties or allowing a presidential candidate to designate a VP. (That doesn't happen until the 12^th Amendment was ratified in 1804.) All knew that Jefferson was the presidential candidate and that his running mate, Aaron Burr, was meant to be Vice President, but each received the same number of Electoral College votes. If you wonder why Burr didn't just step aside, you know nothing about the ambitious and amoral Aaron Burr! It took 36 Electoral College votes to determine that Jefferson would be the third president, and it hinged on a single changed vote: that of Alexander Hamilton.

Was it because Hamilton put duty above personal views? Not quite. He disliked Jefferson, but deemed him "by far not so dangerous a man" as Burr. He went on to opine that Jefferson was merely a "foolish, abstract terrorist," but that Burr was the real deal. As you probably know, in 1804 Burr killed Hamilton in an illegal duel, thereby robbing the country of perhaps its greatest mind of the day, and proving Hamilton's view that Burr was indeed a "dangerous man."

How does this apply today when voters can decide? Donald Trump is a freak show, but he's by far the lesser of two evils compared to Ted Cruz. He craves attention and says outrageous things, but he's probably not serious about half of them. Ted Cruz is. He's pro-gun and anti-everything else liberals hold sacred. He's not just anti-choice, he's part of the insert IUD cameras into the uteruses of abortion-seekers crowd.  He wants to dismantle Obamacare, Affirmative Action, the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act, and all laws forbidding discrimination against gays and lesbians. He wants the Keystone pipeline, perpetual war against foreign enemies, harsher drug laws, and a reworking of the legal code that would be an Old Testament version of Sharia law. He believes in Creationism, insists climate change isn't happening, that immigrants should be banned, that the US military should be unleashed around the globe, and that women should remain helpmeets to men. Consider: in a Senate full of nasty sons-of-bitches, even they hate his guts. If this man becomes POTUS, Margaret Atwood's The Handmaiden's Tale will seem like current events.

Here's where it gets scarier—it could happen. The Democrats are hurtling toward disaster (What? Again?) with Hillary Clinton destined to be its standard bearer. It doesn't matter whether you think her opponents are sexist or misguided; there are tens of millions of voters who despise her and think anyone else is preferable. This includes millions of Sanders' supporters—especially young ones–who will stay at home on Election Day if Hillary gets the nomination. Save your admonishments because it's going to happen.

If Trump doesn't get the nomination, he is likely to bolt the GOP and run as an independent. If that happens, I don't see any candidate getting the magical 270 electorals needed to win. If you think the Election of 2000 was bad, in 2016 it's entirely possible the candidate with the third most votes will be POTUS. Call it a reverse 1800 scenario. In a three-way race, Clinton will win the popular vote but if she is short of 270 in the Electoral College, by what magical thinking does the GOP-controlled House of Representatives give her the presidency? Or second-place finisher Donald Trump? Hello President Cruz (or a dark horse designate for whom no one voted—Paul Ryan? Jeb Bush? Mitch McConnell?)

Hillary Clinton is a terrible campaigner and, yes, I'm among the millions who neither like nor trust her, but if she's your candidate you better root like hell for The Donald to wrap up the GOP nomination. In a two-way race Clinton has a small chance of beating Trump, but in the next-to-worst-case scenario we'd end up with a foolish abstract terrorist instead of a real one.

2016 MLB: AL West a Two-Texas Race

 

Fans of that big NFL joke called “parity” ought to love the American League this year. There is no clear cut front runner in any division. Because I must pick someone, I’ll go with the Houston Astros to win the West, but I do with little conviction.

Predicted Order: Astros, Rangers, Angels, Mariners, A’s

If the Rangers aren't Healthy,the 'Stros to Slide In

Health is the number one reason I favor the Houston Astros. If Doug Fister returns to form, the Astros’ staff of Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, and Fister is a formidable 1-3, and McCullers and Feldman aren’t bad as 4-5. The lineup is a bit suspect, especially when not playing in their home bandbox, but Jose Altuve has emerged as the AL’s best second baseman and Gattis, Rasmus, and Valbuena have their moments.

If Yu Darvish really is healthy—and it’s questionable—then my pick shifts to the Texas Rangers who follow with Cole Hamels, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, and Martin Perez to make up an even stronger rotation. Many think Perez is about to bust loose, so I’d not be shocked to see the Rangers repeat. They certainly have a far stronger lineup: Fielder, Beltre, Moreland, and Choo. Ian Desmond is a nice pickup, but Elvis Andrus needs to find himself. Watch out for second sacker Roughned Odor. I’m not wild about Tolleson as a closer and I’m puzzled why Josh Hamilton is still allowed on the field, but I’m sure he’ll implode.

The Los Angeles Angels have bad pitching and it got worse with the injury to Jered Weaver. Garrett Richards is good, but he’s no ace and C. J. Wilson can’t find his groove. The best hope lies in Andrew Heaney, who looks like he’s ready to impress. Daniel Nava starts in left and that’s not a good thing. Nice pick up at short with Andrelton Simmons, but I’m less sold on Yunel Escobar at third. Albert Pujols needs to rebound, or things will go south fast for the Angels. Of course, the thing we know for certain is that this team could go 1-161 and SABR pinheads would insist that Mike Trout should be MVP. He might be the best everyday player in baseball, but he doesn't make a flawed team better.

Many prognosticators pick the Seattle Mariners to leapfrog the Angels and it’s not out of the question. That still doesn’t make the Mariners a good team, though. Sure Felix Hernandez is a BMW, but he’s the pitching analog to Trout; the M’s win their division only if they figure out how King Felix can pitch every day. I like Iwakuma as a number 2, but then who? Wade Miley? Ugh! Taijuan Walker has to live up to his hype for Seattle to do much. They will, however, hit—Nelson Cruz, Adam Lind, and Kyle Seager will see to that and they’ve added speed in Aoki and Leonys Martin—if they can get on base. I don’t care what he says publicly, Robbie Cano is lost in Seattle and I think his glory years are behind him.  

I’ll just say it: Billy Beane is not a genius, Oakland is a garbage heap of a city, the ballpark is the worst in baseball, and virtually everything about the Oakland A’s not named Sonny Gray, Stephen Vogt, or Josh Reddick will stink. (Okay, maybe Khris Davis gets better.) You don’t build a pitching staff with Red Sox retreads and the A’s have two: Felix Doubront and Rich Hill. Sean Doolittle should take up veterinary science, not try to save games. In a division with less flawed front runners the A’s would lose 100 games, but you can pencil them in for 90.  {Note: Doubront went on the DL after I wrote this, so things are even worse.}

2016 MLB: NL East--The Mets Do it Again

-->

The Mets surprised a lot of people last year, me included. Can they sustain it and make a dent in the Big Apple’s fixation on the Yankees? I think so, but they are another team on whom I’d not bet the farm. I pick them to win the NL East, but mainly because the division is weak.

Predicted order of finish: Mets, Nationals, Marlins, Braves, Phillies

The Lineup is so-so but the Pitching is Amazin'

It starts and ends with pitching and 1-5, the New York Mets stand above the pack—Harvey, deGrom, Syndergaard, Matz, and the ageless Colon. A lot depends on whether the Mets can score runs. A healthy David Wright would help, Neil Walker was a good pick up, and Luca Duda drives the ball well. They will need help from chronic underachievers Granderson, D’Arnaud, and Cespedes, the latter of whom is a quieter version of Yasiel Puig in his ability to be brilliant or a complete ass. Granderson simply never was as good as the Stat Heads claimed he was. On paper, though, the Mets should repeat.

Most MLB analysts are picking the Washington Nationals. I get it; they do have (depending on who’s talking) either the best or second-best player in baseball, Bryce Harper, and a guy capable of giving Clayton Kershaw a run as best pitcher: Max Scherzer. I’m not a Nats fan, though, because the supporting cast isn’t consistently strong. Ryan Zimmerman, if healthy, can contribute but it’s been a few years since he was. Then it’s last year’s postseason wonder Daniel Murphy (who the Mets wisely let walk) and enigmas and low OBP guys such as Ramos, Espinosa, and Rendon. And I’ll say it—Ben Revere is terrible and Jayson Werth only a paper cut above. I like Gio Gonzalez as a pitcher; I don’t like Stasburg who has enormous talent but is as fragile as crystal in a hammer factory. Then who? Papelbon as closer? Sure—if this were ’06 instead of ’16. The Nats strike me as a club that’s a few injuries or a clubhouse dust-up closer to third than first.

The Miami Marlins are easy to hate but too talented to ignore. If they’re not already, these will soon be household names: Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour. Add them to a lineup with Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado, and Dee Gordon and the Fish can match any lineup in the NL. Pitching? Is there any team that wouldn’t make room for Jose Fernandez? Wei-Yin Chen should do better in the NL. Others need to improve—Koehler, Cosart—for the Marlins to contend, but if the Marlins surprise people in 2016, I won’t be among the startled.

There’s not much immediate hope for either the rebuilding Atlanta Braves or the can’t-wait-to-dismantle Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves still have a gem in Freddie Freeman but, for the most part the team that will wear Braves uniforms in 2018 are in the minor leagues right now. You can build a staff around Julio Teheran, which they are trying to do.

Teheran is way better than anybody the Phillies will stick on the mound, though Aaron Nola is an arm to watch. Jeremy Hellickson as the ace presumptive? That’s the definition of “dire.” As for the hitters one can only ask, “What?” I like the upside of shortstop Freddy Galvis, but the Phils are going nowhere until they shed Ryan Howard’s albatross contract. At least the Phillies wised up to the idea that Domonic Brown really is the bum I’ve claimed for the past five years and cut him loose. Call it addition by subtraction. The Phils will feature a lot of unproven kids this year, which means they’ll be more fun to watch, but don’t expect a lot of W’s for a few years.