The last few years there was MLB buzz that teams in the East were no longer the powerhouses they used to be. The West Coast LA Dodgers open 2026 as the favorites to win another World Series, but competitive baseball has returned to the East.
National League East
The Mets, Phillies, and Braves are all capable of winning the East or securing a Wild Card playoff slot. My predictions are as much gut level as objective.
1. A lot of people picked the New York Mets to win the East last year, but they were a DNQ. This year I think they will win the NL East. Plucking Peralta from the Brewers cemented a promising pitching staff. Look for McLean to establish himself as an ace. Peterson isn’t flashy but he gets it done and Holmes has surprised as a reliever turned starter. An infield of Polanco, Semien. Lindor, and Bichette–all four of whom were came via free agency in the past few years– should be pretty good. If you like irony, Semien has a .253 career batting average and has hit 253 career homers. He’s a metaphor for the consistency of the entire infield.
Remember last year when Soto was booed for his slow start. All he did thereafter was slash .263/43/105! Robert has thus far played like a guy who couldn’t wait to get out of Chicago.
What could go wrong? Devin Williams, now the closer, was so bad in that role with the Yankees that he was demoted. Memo: The pressure is just as great in Queens as it was in the Bronz. Benge is a rookie in right, so we need to see how that sugars off. Senga is the fifth starter and hasn’t exactly torn up the league in the four years since coming over from Japan. The Mets flunked the resiliency test last year. Could it happen again?
2. If there’s no urgency in the Philadelphia Phillies clubhouse, there should be. The Phils have been perennial winners of the East but seldom go very far in the postseason. Father Time is lurking in their neighborhood. Six of their pitchers are over 30–three years over a pitcher’s prime–and key lineup players like Harper, Realmuto, Turner, (Adolis) Garcia, and Schwarber are edging toward their middle 30s. Don’t get me wrong; the aforementioned are very good, Schwarber smacks homers like they’re flies, and Harper is a genuine superstar, but baseball’s wear and tear makes injuries more likely after 30. Witness starter Wheeler’s current status on the IL. (Christopher) Sanchez was 13-5 last year and Luzardo 15-7. The Phils hope Painter will be an ace.
What could go wrong: The best scenario is that Wheeler returns midseason, but that’s not a given. Nola was supposed to be elite pitcher, but with the exception of two superb years, he’s blown hot and cold. Walker is very hittable. The Phils are putting Crawford, a rookie, in center and a youngster, (Byrson) Scott at short. Can they handle the pressure?
3. Atlanta Braves: Last year everything that could go wrong did. This year the Braves should hang around and, should the Phillies stumble, Atlanta could grab a Wild Card. Sale remains a superb hurler and if Strider (currently on the IL) returns to his 2023 breakout year, that’s a great 1-2 punch. They will need help, though. If top prospect Caminiti is ready, that will help and a few more arms are on the cusp. The Braves have a habit of churning out good pitchers. Olson is a very productive hitter, Harris II is usually good for 20 homers a year, Yastrzemski was a useful pickup from Kansas City, and a healthy Acuna Jr. has star potential.
What could go wrong? If Albies doesn’t play to his potential and Riley has a mediocre year, there are big holes in the lineup. DH Murphy and SS Kim are on the IL, and Profar is suspended for the entire year. Slumps and injuries could make ’26 a repeat of 2025. If the young arms aren’t ready, Lopez, Holmes, and Elder will have to pitch better than they ever have.
4/5. The Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins are in rebuild mode, a place where they seem stuck the past few years. The Nationals have veteran pitchers Littell and Mikolas on their staff, but are taking a leap of faith in making Beeter their closer. If he finds Homeplate that will be an improvement, but he could also hit the backstop! The lineup will be young and filled with names few beyond the DC Metro area know very well.
On paper the Marlins have a somewhat stronger team with Alcantara, (Eury) Perez, Paddack, and Fairbanks pitching. The lineup resembles that of the Nats, though, and the names you might know (Stowers, Slater, (Agustin) Ramirez) are cast offs. Both teams will be young in a wait-and-see manner. I give the Nats a slight chance of avoiding the basement simply because no matter who owns the team, Miami tends to trade talent instead of developing it.
American League East
1. The Toronto Blue Jays came within two outs of winning the World Series last year. That was no fluke. The Jays have arrived and should be in the mix for years to come. Anyone hoping to catch them should make their move early while the Jays still have key players on the IL. The staff will eventually have Gausman, Cease, Bieber (IL), and superb young pitcher Yesavage (IL). The lineup is loaded: Guerrerro Jr., Okamoto, Clement in the infield, Kirk, a 5’8” catcher who hits like Yogi Berra, and an outfield that can shuffle Springer, Straw, Varsho, Barger, and Lukes.
What could go wrong? Scherzer and/or Lauer will have to step up as the # 5 pitcher as Ponce is probably out for the season. Bet on Lauer. Hoffman and his 4.76 ERA doesn’t rank among the MLB’s best closers. The Jays didn’t lose much defensively with Bichette heading to the Mets, but they don’t have a real shortstop. Gimenez will give it a try, though he’s really a 2nd baseman by trade. He also hit .201 last year! Toronto could be weak defensively.
2. Nothing would surprise me about the New York Yankees; they could win the division or fall as low as 4th. I’m not entirely certain what management had in mind in the off-season, but New York basically starts 2026 with a team that looks like 2025. The only real moves were trading for pitcher Weathers, re-signing Bellinger, and biding goodbye to half their bullpen. In theory, the pitching staff will be superb, but that’s if Cole and Rodon come back at near full strength. Fried is a reluctant ace, but is very good. They may have unearthed a gem in Schlittler, and Lagrange is knocking on the door. The bullpen also looks pretty good now that Bird has regained confidence and has Doval, Cruz, Hill, and (maybe) Headrick around him. If anyone falters, there’s talent in the minors.
Rice is another great find and can both catch and anchor first. Chisholm Jr. is polarizing, but exciting. Grisham needs to hit like he did last year because Scranton has two guys who should be on the MLB roster: Dominguez and Jones. The Yankees right fielder is a guy whose name you might have heard: Aaron Judge, who’s either the best or second-best player in baseball.
What could go wrong? Stanton had an amazing spring, but the odds are better than 50/50 he will end up on the IL. For the life of me I don’t understand why New York traded for Weathers. Volpe is on the IL, but manager Boone is nuts if he starts him over Caballero. McMahon is a superb glove at 3rd but his bat is as shaky as a pool noodle. Likewise, watch Wells behind the plate. If Rice catches as often as he plays first, Wells will be traded. There’s also a lingering feeling that the Yankees might have a better team in Scranton (Gill, Cohen, Beck, (Elmer) Rodriguez, Cabrera, Shewmake, Dominguez, Jones) than in New York.
3. This year the Boston Red Sox should at least get a Wild Card. On paper their pitching is awesome: Crochet, Gray, Suarez, Bello, Early (with Tolle in the wings). The seemingly ageless Chapman can close it down if Whitlock, Weissert, and Slaten hold leads. Contreras hit in St. Louis and Sox hope he does so in Boston. Story brings experience to short and Anthony has emerged as a probable superstar. The Red Sox outfield with Amthony, Rafaela, Abreu, or Duran can flat out pick it. It might be the best defensive OF in MLB today. And let’s not underestimate revenge motivation from all the former Yankees the Sox pilfered: Gray, Whitlock, Weissert, Chapman, Narvaez, Seigler, Durbin, Kiner-Falefa.
What Could Go Wrong? The Sox have some young players–Mayer, Durbin, Rafaela–they’re counting on. Mayer spat the bit last year and Rafaela has never hit .250 in the majors. They need to be better as the Red Sox don’t have a lot of power. The word on the street is that Gray melts under pressure and that Suarez’s soft tosses won’t play well in the AL East. Why is (Romy) Gonzalez (IL) so underrated?
4. Back in 2021 many “experts” called the Baltimore Orioles the team of the future. Within a few years they debuted talent like Holliday, Henderson, Rutschman, and Mountcastle, to name guys still with the O’s. Of them, Mountcastle had a great year in ’21, when he launched 33 home runs, but hasn’t duplicated it. They’ve gotten very little out of Holliday; Rutschman has been good, but not the elite catcher he was projected to be.
This year they brought in Bassitt to stabilize the staff and added power bats in Alonso and Ward, the latter a truly underrated player who spent time with the mostly awful Angels. Some have picked the Orioles as the dark horse to grab a Wildcard.
What could go wrong? I’ll say this, if the Orioles don’t upgrade their pitching, the O’s could drop to last. (Tyler) Rogers is good, though Bassitt could become their # 1 guy. Bradish is 29 and has spent much of his career in MiLB, Baz is 17-17 lifetime, and Elfin at 68-67 (mostly with the powerful Phillies) goes on my list of most disappointing highly touted prospects. Baltimore is a case study for an adage I’ve mentioned before: Until they show otherwise, prospects are suspects. The O’s will be better with Alonzo and Ward but, without luck, they are missing too many pieces.
5. Last year the Tampa Bay Rays even lacked a stadium. This year they’re back in the Trop, but it’s not good news to return to that awful tin can. The Rays seem to specialize in pesky players who can sting you but are unlikely to see the inside of Hall of Fame without a ticket. Rassmussen and McClanahan are good pitchers, but things fall apart pretty fast after that. Matz was once a hot prospect but is 61-62 for his injury-marred career. (Nick) Martinez has a similar profile. Closer Jax has exactly 27 saves of 5 years.
The Rays are why some analysts dismiss Batting averages. The Rays were 8th in MLB for batting averages last year, but 15th in runs scored and 16th in home runs. See the problem? If Lux gets off the IL, he could add some power, but as the roster stands there’s not much firepower beyond Mullins and (Yandy) Diaz, one of the more productive catchers in the AL. In short, the Rays need more than a new ballpark.
Rob Weir
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