Spring 2021 Cleanout: Katzman, Regrettes, Scroggins & Rose, Shalhoub, Sweater Set and more

 

Time once again to try to clean out the old musical backlog. Here are some capsules with links to my favorite track and another to try if you’ve got a thirst for more.

 

 

Los Angelino Theo Katzman serves potage on his latest record, which has the intriguing title of Modern Johnny Sings Songs in the Age of Vibe. Katzman gives us some rock, soul, funk, pop, and jazz, and shows his chops as a singer, guitarist, bassist, keyboard player, and percussionist.

 

            Recommend: “You Could Be President” is a backdoor slam on he who shall not be named. Katzman’s soulful, but affected falsetto befits the song. This one is cool live studio track with backing musicians. 

            Try: “The Death of Us” has a self-explanatory title. Katzman knows how mix his funk with pop hooks 

 

 

Staying in LA for a moment, The Regrettes are a feminism-meets-genre hopping quartet that borrow from punk, DYI garage band, riot grrrl vibes, pop, and sly parodies of mid-20^th century girl groups. It is built around lead vocalist Lydia Night. Their latest EP is titled How Do You Love?

 

            Recommend:“Dress Up” highlights their mashup traits. Are they serious or just having a goof? Yes. 

            Try: “Pumpkin” is quieter, but no less insouciant. 

 

 

If we head up the Left Coast to San Fran, you will find the blue/newgrass sounds of Scroggins and Rose. Tristan Scroggins plays mandolin and Grammy-nominated Alicia Rose the fiddle, though her classical chops might make you want to call it a “violin.” As the last comment suggests, their version newgrass–showcased on Curios–is more classically influenced than the usual jazz/trad mix. Their music takes some concentration, but it’s worth it.

 

            Recommend: “I Can Find a Way to Fix It” has Tristan in a minimalist mood. Alicia gets to do the fancy stuff.  

            Try:“Calabacitas is in the same vein, though the two trade fancy licks. You’ll hear how Rose garnered that Grammy nom. 

 

 

Cross the Bay to Oakland for a meet-and-greet with Lebanese/Arab-American singer Naima Shalhoub, whose Siphr is moody and melancholy, yet defiant. Shalhoub is a powerful singer with controlled vibrato. She’s also a social activist, which no doubt helps her put her special spin on the blues.

 

            Recommend: “Two Rivers” is sung in Arabic with lyrics drawn from the Book of Isaiah and guitar work suggestive of Tuareg blues. The song’s meaning is open to interpretation, as befits someone who has also mused over borderlands of other sorts

            Try: The bump-and-thump “Roumieh Prison Blues.”  Its namesake is an infamous overcrowded lockup in Lebanon where several violent protests have occurred. 

 

 

Hiss Golden Messenger is a folk/folk rock band out of Durham, North Carolina. They will be dropping a new album soon, but their 2019 Terms of Surender is worth investigating. They are anchored by lead vocalist/guitarist MC Taylor in a lineup that’s sometimes a solo, but also expands to as many as eight others. The approach shifts accordingly and invites handles such blues, rock, swamp rock, Americana, and bluegrass.

 

            Recommend: “I Need a Teacher,” which was inspired by a Tarheel state teachers’ strike. (NC is one of the worst places to be a teacher!) The song honors educators and their students. 

            Try: The title track “Terms of Surrender,” which has a bit of country flavoring.  

 

 

There’s something delightfully retro about The Sweater Set (Maureen Andary and Sara Curtin). This DC-area duo has been touring for more than a dozen years and recorded their latest release Fly on the Wall in 2018. Gigging was delayed first by maternity duties–both had a set of twins within months of each other–and, of course, the Covid shutdown. Theirs is folk with a bit of cowgirl lurking around the edges.

 

            Recommend: “Dawn Chorus” with its splash of clarinet, big rolling strums, and mellifluous harmonies.

            Try: “Hostage” is a love song with a retro feel.

 

 

The rock band Strange Ranger used to be called Sioux Falls. I gather they been based in Montana and Portland, Oregon, though a recent article places them in Philadelphia, so take you pick. It generally builds songs around the lead vox of Isaac Eiger. Their rock is of a softer, shimmery variety, and their latest record is 2019’s Remember the Rockets.

 

            Recommend: “Ari’s Song,” which opens to Fiona Woodman’s bird-like vocalizations before Eiger comes in with his high tenor. It’s more sunshine pop than rock. 

            Try: “Pete’s Hill,” highlights the band’s atmospheric approach. Don’t bother trying to make out the lyrics; lushness is the point.

 

            

Melody Duncan sounds British, though she’s actually an Atlanta native. Maybe it’s her lollipop girl group tones. She has toured with some of the biggies–Emmylou, Steve Earle, Brandi Carlilie, The Mulligan Brothers–but Wolf Song is a solo venture that has hints of folk, indie rock, and chamber-pop. My short take is that I like her fiddling, guitar, and keys but I’m just not a fan of little girl voices.

 

            Recommend: “Wolf Song,” which isn’t about four-legged critters per se.

            Try: “Paper,” which has the mentioned chamber-pop flair

 

Rob Weir

 

           

 

When the Stars Go Black a Tough Detective Novel

 

 

 

 

WHEN THE STARS GO DARK

By Paula McClain

Random House, 384 pages.

★★★★

 

Paula McClain is one of literature’s finest storytellers. When Stars Go Dark draws inspiration from a dark incident from 1993: the disappearance of 12-year-old Polly Klaas from her home in Petaluma, California. McClain uses that horrific incident to build a fictional tale that reminds us that high-profile cases often have the unintended effect of drawing interest away from those that don’t get as much media attention. They can blind investigators to smaller pieces that assemble a larger puzzle, or tempt them to force-fit ones that don’t match.

 

Detective Anna Hart, McClain’s protagonist, has numerous blinders of her own. She founded the Searchlight program that specializes in seeking missing girls, but fails to see how her obsession has made a hash of her personal life, or that deep-seated baggage bleeds into her work. Anna is tough and resilient, but prone to hard crashes. She is in Mendocino, where she came of age, as she and her husband need a break from each other. McClain drops hints about why this is the case, but skillfully dribbles out the details. We do know, though, that Anna’s crusty exterior formed when her mother died of a heroin overdose and young Anna and her siblings were separated by Child Services. Anna did not take well to foster care until she landed in Mendocino, where she was taken in by Hap and Eden, back-to-the-land naturalists. Hap taught her about surviving in the woods, where Anna also found solace.

 

Anna’s plan is to play hermit in a remote cabin and reevaluate a life filled with “heavy loss.” The first problem with that plan is that people remember her in Mendocino; the second is that a subteen girl named Cameron Hague has gone missing and it sure looks as if Sheriff Will Flood is out of his depth in searching for her. Several complications: Will was an old flame, Anna’s breasts are milk-swollen, she often zealously oversteps boundaries, and Cameron’s parents, Emily and Troy, are show business people seeking to avoid publicity. In situations such as this, parents are often the first suspects, plus the marriage is rocky, Cameron was adopted, and Troy’s brother Drew–now a vintner living in a palatial home in Napa–has a dodgy past (involving an underage girl) and is a pretentious jerk in the present.

 

As Anna pries, the dead-case unsolved murder of Jenny Ledford comes to light, as does the more recent disappearance of Shannon Russo and that of Polly Klaas. Are the four cases related? Russo, an older bad girl type, seems a different scenario, but Anna wants to check out everything, whether or not it’s her call. Nothing seems to add up, including the fact that Emily Hague flunked her polygraph test.

 

This is a gripping novel that pulls on the heart strings, albeit sometimes too tightly and too obviously. Like most detective/mystery tales, this one involves meticulous clue-searching, probing into the backgrounds of both the missing and suspects, tossing out rotted red herrings, and building to a carefully protected reveal. When the Stars Go Dark is also complicated by Anna’s own woes, things about Cameron about which her adopted parents were unaware, and a town filled with offbeat characters. Several of the last, including a psychic, ageing hippies, an artist, an English teacher, and a barmaid factor into the story. So too do dysfunctional families of several sorts.

 

In addition to the obvious metaphor of light being prematurely extinguished, the title also owes something to a poetry collection of the same name published by Jim McGarrah in 2009. Rilke, however, is our chief poetic suspect. In McClain’s novel, Anna, Cameron, and perhaps McClain herself are Rilke fans, especially of his poem “I Am Much Too Alone in This World Yet Not Alone.” As the title suggests, it’s also infused with double meanings. Cameron is also moved by Jane Eyre. Another clue?

 

I am usually a fan of mysteries in which the lead investigator is flawed rather than some know-it-all bafflegab who sees what no one else can. Anna Hart definitely falls into the first category and forces us to contemplate obsession as a double-edged sword. I also prefer those that ring true over the anodyne. I would not say that mystery is McLain’s métier, but When the Stars Go Dark is a welcome (albeit unsettling) digression.  

 

Rob Weir

 

Bombshell A Needed Reminder of Fox News Perfidy

 

BOMBSHELL (2019/20)

Directed by Jay Roach

Lionsgate, 109 minutes, R (language, adult situations)

★★★★

 

Conservatives spin it nine ways to Sunday, but Fox News in America’s Pravda. At best it is schtick pretending to be investigative journalism. Neo-fascists such as Pat Buchanan, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Bill O’Reilly have gotten away with outrageous antics by banking on the assumption that the majority of its viewers will not differentiate between objectivity and accusation. It’s also a place where women are hired for shapely legs, not their knowledge of current affairs.

 

Sexism is the one thing that has pumped the brakes at Fox. Bombshell uses quasi-documentary storytelling to recount how it felled Fox CEO/chairman Roger Ailes (John Lithgow) and O’Reilly in 2016. The movie focuses on two of the Miss Americas hired by Fox: Megyn Kelly (Charlize Theron) and Gretchen Carlson (Nicole Kidman). Bombshell has a few serious craters, but it lifts the veil on a media machine fueled by manufactured outrage, piggish males, and fear.

 

The Fox house of cards began to wobble after Carlson was fired in 2013, though the Bombshell narrative centers more on Kelly. This is partly because Carlson’s contract stipulated that she could not sue the network, so she instead had to bring suit against Ailes for sexual harassment. For a time, she was a lone crusader; others lacked the courage to admit that had been fondled, ogled, degraded, or pressured into sexual encounters with Ailes. Most feared dismissal and knew that, with rare exceptions, Fox News was a dead-end job that destroyed one’s journalistic credibility.

 

Everyone, though, has limits. Kelly found herself branded disloyal when she dared push candidate Donald Trump on numerous allegations of sexual impropriety. In 2016, few understood the depth of Trump’s perfidy or thuggish tactics. You might recall that Trump counterpunched with remarks implying that Kelly was leaking blood from her vagina and thus suffering from menstrual hysteria. One wonders what would have happened had Trump the intelligence to put down the gloves when he was ahead, or if Ailes had stopped behaving like a 75-year-old horny teenager. Eventually, Kelly also joined the lawsuit, though she knew it meant her Fox career was over. But not even owner Rupert Murdoch (Malcolm McDowell)­­­—nobody’s idea of a shrinking violet—could ignore the allegations and, in 2016, he canned Ailes and O’Reilly. 

 

I wish the makers of Bombshell had stuck to the ugly facts and kept their focus. The film’s documentary style involved re-creating the newsroom. It is overstuffed with characters—nearly 50 in total—which means that other nasty creatures such as Susan Estrich, Kimberly Guilfoyle, Hannity, Abby Huntsman, O’Reilly, Geraldo Rivera, Bill Shine, Chris Wallace, and Murdoch’s sons have roles that are little more than creepy cameos. A more curious decision was to introduce two fictional main characters: Kayla Pospisil (Margot Robbie) and Jess Carr (Kate McKinnon). Pospisil is an ambitious evangelical who wants to advance the “Jesus agenda” for Fox, and Carr is an O’Reilly Factor staffer who is both a closeted liberal supporter of Hillary Clinton and a closeted lesbian who beds the not-exactly-by-the-Bible Pospisil (who is also an Ailes victim). Allegedly, both women are Fox News composites who don’t wish to come public. If so, why put them in the movie in the first place?

 

Rudy Giuliani (Richard Kind) also delivers an on-screen rant. He gets no sympathy from me but, in truth, he played no part in the Ailes/O’Reilly debacle. Unless you ascribe to the view–and I do not–that it’s okay to lie to takedown liars, it is inexcusable to fictionalize just to give Robbie a juicy part or take a gratuitous swipe at Giuliani. It is also a disservice to those 23 women brave enough to subject themselves to the further indignation of public scrutiny.

 

Theron is very good as Kelly, whom she serves up as equal parts icy, savvy, and conflicted. Despite star power such as Theron, Kidman, and Robbie, though, John Lithgow steals the movie. He is positively chilling in depicting Ailes as an amoral and chilling predator who believed himself too powerful to challenge. I also admired the decision not to lionize anyone at Fox. We come away disgusted by Ailes and O’Reilly, but Bombshell is also a portrait of those who valued money, celebrity, and power over truth, morality, or decency­– predators and victims alike. Sexual harassment is always wrong, but victimhood alone does not someone honorable.

 

 It is, though, hard to get past two hard-to-swallow ironies. Fox paid its harassment victims $50 million in settlements, but shelled out $65 million to buyout Ailes and O’Reilly. There is also the matter of how Bombshell was received by the film establishment. The only awards it consistently won were for hair styling.

 

Rob Weir

 

 

The Four Winds A Mixed Effort

The Four Winds (2021)

Kristin Hannah

St. Martin's Press, 464 pages.

★★★

 

 

It’s risky when contemporary authors try to update classical literature. When done well, the results sparkle and refresh; when botched, readers wonder what tempted them to go where angels fear to tread. Kristin Hannah's The Four Winds is inspired by John Steinbeck’s masterpiece The Grapes of Wrath and lands in mid-spectrum between success and failure. At its best moments, it makes us feel the utter despair of being trapped in the Great Dust Bowl, perhaps the greatest eco-disaster in American history.

 

The Dust Bowl (1930-36) saw winds howl across the Great Plains and rip away the topsoil. To give a measure of how bad they were, in April 1935, the noonday sun in Boston, Washington, and New York was blackened out by dust that originated in Montana. Small farmers simply could not survive year after year of drought, which is why the Okies and Arkies of Steinbeck’s tale packed their possessions into rickety trucks and headed for California. 

 

 Hannah's twist is that her protagonists are from West Texas, a place often overlooked in Dust Bowl narratives. We first meet Elsa Wolcott in 1921, she the daughter of uppity, parents who told her she was too plain for anyone to desire. Their self-righteous cruelty drives her into the arms of Rafe Martinelli, who impregnates her. The two best things to come out of were a daughter, Loreda, and finding acceptance in the home of Rafe’s parents, Tony and Rose, who become surrogates for Elsa’s parents, who disowned her. Elsa never dreamed of being a farmer’s wife, let alone being part of an Italian household radically different from that of her formative years. Soon, another child, Anthony, joined the extended family. If this sounds a tad too sentimental, you’re right.

 

Jump ahead to 1934, when Loreda is 12 and Anthony 7. It is a year of hunger, desperation, and dust so thick that schools close, animals starve, and dirt flies into the house through every crevice. Tony remains optimistic that the rains will come, but Rafe doesn’t believe it. He begins to drink and dream–seldom a good combination. One day, he simply disappears, which is the last thing a daughter on the cusp of teenhood needs from a father whom she idolizes.

 

Hannah’s writing is at its most vivid when describing the horrors of the Dust Bowl. She places readers inside a ruined landscape in which machinery, outbuildings, and even livestock disappear under mounds of dirt. Imagine tornadoes filled with topsoil. One by one, farmers pack it in and head for California. When rain doesn’t come, Elsa and her children join the westward sojourners, though Tony and Rose stay put. This middle third of the book is Hannah’s strongest.

 

Many Dust Bowl stories discuss jalopies, hungry travelers, and makeshift campsites of American refugees from their own country. Hannah reminds us of less-discussed dangers along the way: theft, muggings, and sexual assault, to name a few. The experience of arriving in California is a scene straight out of a Woody Guthrie song. (Listen to his “Do Re Mi.”) If you think of the treatment of Latino immigrants today, that’s how Dust Bowl refugees were treated: backbreaking work, hostile locals, filthy camps, take-it-or-starve pay, and company store schemes that turn laborers into wage slaves. Back in Texas, Tony and Rose barely survive, but New Deal programs offer some hope.

 

As the calendar turns to 1936, conditions in California deteriorate and anger rises. At this juncture, Hannah introduces Jack Valen, a Communist Party (CPUSA) organizer. This is the weakest part of the novel. Hannah correctly surmises the inherent conservatism of bosses and migrants alike, but once Valen is placed within Elsa’s and Loreda’s sphere, you can probably storyboard a sizable chunk of this part of the novel. CPUSA organizers were unsung heroes during the hardest years of the Depression, but Hannah’s labor strife sections founder in a sea of one-dimensional situations and carboard cutout characters. This is compounded by the moving contrasts between individual tragedies and the shorter shrift given to collective tragedy and politics. Moreover, characters often speak and act in anachronistic ways that make it obvious that Hannah has contemporary border migrants in mind. The mood of the coda also feels like today dressed in 1940 garb.

 

Forgive the cliché, but The Four Winds is no Grapes of Wrath. Oddly, one of the reasons is that Hannah’s search for modern-day relevance dulls the vibrancy of the novel’s middle sections. I liked The Four Winds, but it reminded of a “B” student essay that squandered “A” material.

 

Rob Weir

AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST PREDICTIONS 2021;

 

Original logo, though maybe we might need a Buffalo Bisons patch

Welcome to the “if” edition of MLB predictions. Lots of MLB analysts say the Yankees will roll to the AL East crown, but for the life of me–and I’m a Yankees fan–I fail to see how they come to that conclusion. Every team except the Orioles could win, if everything goes their way. So, let’s take a look on that basis.

 

The Blue Jays have rebuilt and it’s uncertain whether they are ready, or still a year or two away.Heck, who knows if they'll even play in Toronto this year. Still, they can win...

 

            If Bichette, Biggio, Gurriel Jr. and Guerrero Jr. are ready to leap into stardom;

            If Springer is the veteran glue that inspires them to greatness;

            If Hernandez, Semien, and Tellez hit more than just homeruns.

            If Someone other than Ryu pitches well. Therein lies their fate. Ray, Roark, and Stripling have never been more than serviceable, and Matz has been neither healthy nor good in his 6 years in the Bigs.

 

There is no sense wasting time with the Orioles.  Felix Fernandez will probably be one f their starters and that speaks volumes. It would take a miracle for the O’s to be within sniffing distance of a .500 season.

 

The Rays shop in the bargain basement and still manage to look like they’re dressed in designer duds. I’m not so sure about that this year. They can still win…

 

            If Arozarena’s postseason wasn’t a fluke. Based on the latter, he’s being called a budding superstar. Really? May I remind people that Denny Doyle was almost a World Series MVP.

            If two or more of the following hit for power: Adames, Choi, Lowe, or Meadows hit for power; otherwise, the Rays will scrape for runs.

            If Hill doesn’t wake up one morning and realize he’s old.

            If Wacha adjusts to the AL.

            If Archer isn’t his usual mediocre self.

 

The Red Sox have been written off and I hope that’s true because I think it’s a travesty that Cora is still allowed to manage an MLB team. Commonsense tells me, though, that the Red Sox have a much better everyday lineup than the Rays. They can surprise…

 

            If Dalbec is more than an AAA slugger who strikes out more than he makes contact.

            If (J.D.) Martinez bounces back and isn’t on the downhill slide.

            If Renfroe, Cordero, and Richards don’t demonstrate why they’ve been traded. (I have my doubts about the latter two.

            If they find a decent everyday 2B.

            If Devers doesn’t regress with the glove.

            If Eovaldi and Rodriguez stay healthy. Odds are low on that.

            If Pivetta is a steal. (He might be; the Phillies are horrible at evaluating talent.)

            If (Martin) Perez doesn’t revert to being a hitter’s best friend. Smart money is on the second option.

            If Ottavino isn’t out of gas.

            If Sale returns and makes an impact. History isn’t on his side.

 

The Yankees are more beloved by sabermetrics wingnuts than by dispassionate analysts. Their superstar at every position approach too often outweighs commonsense. Everyone in the lineup is capable of hitting 25-45 homeruns, but the baseball isn’t hopped up like a meth addict this year and just one guy, LeMahieu, is known for getting on base a lot. They will flame out unless they adjust to situational hitting instead of highlight reel homeruns. They can only succeed…

 

            If Hicks and Urshela are healthy and adjust their swings to maximize OBP.

            If Judge and Stanton actually stay off the DL for a change. Otherwise, they’re just flashy toys.

            If Torres proves he can play SS.

            If Frazier continues to improve.

            If Taillon and Kluber are really healthy. Taillon is just 29, but he’s had two Tommy John surgeries and Kluber’s last two seasons were nightmares.

            If the Yankees have the wisdom to see that German could be their #2 pitcher.

            If Servino comes off the DL and contributes with big outtings.

            If O’Day, Loisiga, and someone else replace what the bullpen lost. Green will need to be reliable as well.

 

AL East Predictions:

 

1. Blue Jays:             Simply because they are younger, healthier, and hungrier.

2. Rays:                     They are seldom great, but they’re usually good.

3. Yankees:               If all those “ifs” come true, they’ll win, but it’s a long list.

4.  Red Sox:              A ton of ifs, but not nuts to think they could pass the Yanks.

5.  Orioles:                 The stink won’t be from the Chesapeake.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST PREVIEW 2021

 

Yes, kiddos, the Braves began in Boston, then went to Milwaukee

The NL East should be baseball’s most competitive division.

 

The Braves won it last year and, on paper, they’re still the best team in the East. They feature fearsome hitters–Acuna, Albies, Freeman, Ozuna, Swanson–and the only relief is that thus far Pache and Riley have been low on-base-percentage players. Only a solid-but-not-spectacular pitching staff puts a brake on the Atlanta juggernaut. Morton has a lot of mileage on his arm, Smyly manages to avoid being what scouts think he should be, and Wright and (Ian) Anderson can be gotten to. (Will) Smith is not yet an elite closer.

 

The Marlins, as usual, are a bunch of youngsters who might or might not be good. None of their starting pitchers is older than 25, and the only hitters that are household names are Dickerson and Marte, the latter of whom has not been the star he was projected to be. There are players who can mash, but several of them–Duvall, Alfaro, Diaz–have low on-base percentages. It’s hard to imagine the Fish will be competitive in the NL East.

 

The Mets have been picked as a possible Cinderella team. Potentially, only the Dodgers and Nationals can rival their pitching staff, but beware the term “potentially.” DeGrom is an annual Cy Young candidate, but Stroman, Walker, Peterson, and Lucchesi are inconsistent. The Mets fleeced the Indians by picking up Carrasco in the trade for Lindor, but he’s on the DL. For once, the Mets lineup is more than one stud and 7 dwarves. Lindor, Conforto, (Dominic) Smith, and Alonso is a solid middle of the lineup. The Mets have the potential to be best team in New York this year, but again there’s that qualifier: potential.

 

The Nationals staff is better than that of the Mets, if everyone stays healthy. That too comes with an imaginary asterisk. Strasburg has battled injuries his entire career and the aging Lester had surgery several weeks ago. Scherzer, though, will give deGrom and Kershaw (Dodgers) a run for the Cy Young award. On paper, their lineup is a step behind the Mets. Robles needs to improve and 3B Kieboom needs to prove he belongs. They plucked Schwarber from the Cubs and we’ll see if his power numbers decline outside of Wrigley Field. They’d better not, as he’s never been a high OBP guy. But Soto, Turner, Bell, and Castro are very good players.

 

My # 4 I-don’t-believe-in-you team is the chronically underperforming Phillies. Harper was supposed to be the NL’s answer to Mike Trout. He has stretches of brilliance, but he’s been more like bottom round than prime rib. The Phils lacked high OBP guys last year and you need them to eke out runs against great pitching. Speaking of great pitching, that of the Phillies is merely okay. Nola, Eflin, and Velasquez were supposed to be can’t-miss hurlers but only Nola shows any signs of being poised for a breakout. Arieta is gone and they’ll need Moore–back from Japan–or the chronically injured Wheeler to step up. Don’t bet on it.

 

NL East Predictions:

 

1. Braves:                  They will be pushed, but I like their unflappable consistency.

2. Nationals:              If their staff is healthy, this is a Wild Card team.

3. Mets:                      I’m not as impressed by their pitching as most.

4. Phillies:                  Prove you’re a good team, or start over.

5.  Marlins:                Bunch of unknowns, but it won’t shock if they overtake the Phillies.

MLB Central: In the Cards and Twinsies?

MLB PREVIEW CENTRAL 2021

 

National League Central:

 

Cards logo form 1950s

This should be a tight division, as each of the top three teams has weaknesses.

 

The Brewers would be the favorites if they had pitching. In Holder they have perhaps the best closer in the NL, but you have to get to him first. None of their projected starters has much experience, so it’s hard to know what will happen when they crack open the cans. They Brew Crew will hit, though 1B (Hiura or Vogelbach), SS (Arcia), and catcher (Narvaez) are question marks. If the Brewers falter, Holder might be a Yankee by midsummer.

 

The Cardinals are the Oakland A’s of the NL in that they get a lot mileage out lesser known players. They will fill in around Arenado and Goldschmidt, the latter of whom needs to be a stud for the offense to work. DeJong needs to hit, which he hasn’t done so far. Ditto Bader and (Tyler) O’Neill. Concerns: 38-year-old Molina has to break down at some point, yes? It’s a miracle Wainwright is still pitching given his injury history, but he too is 38 and this is probably the last time his pony goes around the carousel. Mikolas is on the DL. 24-year-old Hicks is expected to close. In other words, pitching could ground the Cardinals.

 

Nobody will admit it, but the Cubs are shedding payroll and are doing a quiet makeover. Their top three pitchers and the middle of the lineup will keep them in the midst of things, but at some point, they need to part ways with Heyward, who simply never justified his big contract. Pederson might help, but he’s the supposed-to-be stud who hasn’t been. At 2B, Hoerner might be the future but he’s probably not the now.

 

The Reds went all in last year and it didn’t work. They have some good hitters, but unless (Sonny) Gray continues his resurrection and Miley steps up, Luis Castillo is another guy who might be a Yankee.

 

The Pirates have been rebuilding longer than Pompeii. Both are ruins.

 

American League Central:

 

Logo from when Twins were an expansion team

The Indians are like the city of Cleveland; there’s never enough money for what is needed. Francona is among the best managers in baseball and he has the core of a good staff in Bieber, Civale, and Plesac but beyond them, who? Nobody knows who will play first, though Bradley has the inside track. He’s been in the majors for 6 years, but has been in just 53 games. Projected closer Karinchak has saved exactly one game in his career. It’s like this throughout the roster, once one gets passed proven players such as (Eddie) Rosario, (Cesar) Hernandez, Perez, and (Jose) Ramirez.

 

The Royals should be much better. Something tells me the Red Sox will wish a do-over in trading Benintendi. he will fit into a lineup that can do some damage, though SS Mondesi and (Nicky) Lopez need to break out. The rotation is thin past Minor and Duffy.

 

The Tigers are improving, but they took a hit when Mize, their top pitching prospect, lost the ability to find the strike zone. There is a lot of work to do. Miggy Cabrera will probably retire after the season and other than Schoop, there lineup looks like a snooze fest. Boyd, Norris, and Fulmer are guys who stand a 50/50 chance of pitching better or being candidates for catch-and-release.

 

The Twins are, as usual, good enough to win the Central but nada in the post season. It’s a team that looks better on paper than it actually is. They hit a lot of homeruns, but can they thump their way over the hump? I doubt it, as beyond Maeda the pitching is suspect. Happ is 38, Berrios is a middle reliever converted to a starter, Shoemaker has been awful the last two years, and you never, ever want to depend to Pineda to miss a bat in a key situation.

 

Most analysts say the division will go to the White Sox. Maybe, but it’s also theirs for the losing. The everyday lineup, with the exception of 24-year-old 2B Madrigal looks awesome. Pitching could be the Achilles’ heel, though, especially since Kopech can’t stay healthy. Keuchel and Lynn need to be really good, not just veteran presences.

 

NL Central Predictions;

 

1. Cardinals:             They won’t overwhelm, but smart management helps plug gaps.

2. Cubs:                     Enough pitching, some fine hitters, and bandbox Wrigley help.

3. Brewers:                They need pitchers. Period.

4. Reds:                     I doubt Votto finishes his career in Cincy.

5. Pirates:                  They might finish 3^rd in the International League.

 

AL Central Predictions:

 

1. Twins:                    Good enough to win a tight division.

2.  Royals:                 They are my dark horse hunch.

3.  White Sox:           They have swagger, but they lack the arms to back it up.

4.  Indians:                Cleveland is a dead city. Move the Tribe.

5.  Tigers:                  More holes than a New England backroad in March.