Ozzie Guillen Was Wronged, Not Wrong!

The 85-year-old man that inspires fear!

File this one under the “Are You Frickin’ Kidding Me?” category: Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen is serving a five-game suspension for having made a remark that he “admired” Fidel Castro. Florida’s Cuban-American community collapsed into paroxysms of affected anger and feigned pain. They even threatened to boycott the club, which is odd as that’s what they’ve always done. (The Marlins have finished in the bottom third in attendance 13 of their 18 years of existence.) But the Marlins want to fill their sparkling new ballpark, so Ozzie has to fall on his knees like a contrite sinner. He’s playing that role, but no one would be the slightest bit surprised if he’s ultimately forced to reign.

The 48-year-old manager held hostage to ancient prejudices!

A rational person would make several observations. First of all, whom did the Marlins think they were hiring? If you want non-controversial you sure as hell don’t hire Ozzie Guillen. He is, simply, addicted to calling attention to himself. If a month goes by without Ozzie offending someone, that would the media story of the year. I have never been a fan of Guillen, whom I think is perhaps the single most overrated skipper in all of baseball. But this time, I’m going to bat for the guy.

Did baseball abolish the first amendment? It’s Guillen’s right to admire anyone he wishes. Shame on the Cuban-American community for denying that right, shame on the media for letting Cuban-Americans get away with it, and shame on the media a second time for its woeful and reflexive use of unexamined language. I’m yet to see a story that doesn’t use the phrase “Cuban dictator Fidel Castro.” Did the media not get the memo that Fidel hasn’t been the leader of Cuba since 2008, when he stepped down and passed head of state duties to his brother Raul? And am I the only to see the irony of tossing out “dictator” labels whilst calling for the head of a person who exercised his right to free speech? Who is really acting like a dictator?

Let’s move on to some history. Who is this Castro guy that stops major league baseball in its tracks? Actually, he’s an 85-year-old sick man toward the end of his life. Will someone kindly tell Cuban-American community to consult a calendar? No one ever accused Fidel Castro of being a Teddy bear, but lest anyone forget, he overthrew a dictator in 1959: a corrupt-to-the-core monster named Fulgencio Batista. Want to guess how Batista came to power? He was a general who overthrew the Cuban government in 1933, set up a military junta with a titular president, and dispensed with him after several months. Batista stepped down in 1944, passed the power to a handpicked successor, lived in the United States for eight years, and returned to Cuba in 1954 to lead a second coup. Batista turned Cuba into a gambling and prostitution paradise, forged ties with organized crime, and looted the country. When Castro ousted Batista in 1959, Cuba was Haiti-like poor. Talk about the 1%; the only Cubans that benefitted from Batista’s rule were elites in Batista's inner circle of cronies. Guess where they ended up? Other than the fact that considerably more Cubans did at least marginally better under Castro, the biggest difference is that Batista was our son of a bitch and Castro wasn’t/isn’t.

But here’s the other thing. All of this was a long time ago–a very long time ago. It’s been 53 years since the Cuban Revolution and 50 since the Soviets planted rockets on island soil and precipitated the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Cuba has posed no credible (as opposed to imagined) threat to the United States since then, unless you count the Mariel boatlift back in 1980, when Castro suckered Jimmy Carter into accepting refugees that included some hardcore criminals and mental health patients. Even that was a whopping 32 years ago.

Give it up already and move on! What do we fear? It can’t be communism. The United States long ago forgave enemy combatants in Southeast Asia and normalized relations with Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos. We’re as snug as bugs in a rug with the commies in Red China. Psst! The Cold War ended in 1991, when the Soviet Union went out of business.

Who is keeping the hatred alive? Few of the Floridians calling for Ozzie Guillen’s head and Castro’s overthrow are actual “victims” of Castro’s tyranny. They are the children and grandchildren of those who fled Castro, and quite a few are the offspring of Batista-era privilege. They remind me of naïve Irish-Americans who give money to the I.R.A. in the mistaken view that they are avenging the 17^th century Battle of the Boyne, or my own Scottish-American kindred who feel honor-bound to hate the English because of the 1706 Act of Union that ended Scottish independence.

Yes, there are Cuban refugees in Florida as well, but you tell me–if the Castro regime fell tomorrow, what percentage of Florida’s Cuban-American population would relocate to Cuba? (Answer: Mostly those who thought they could make some sort of reparations claim, and most of them would return to Florida.) Anti-Castro ravings are so far past their sell-by date that they would be laughable, if they weren’t also vitriolic and disruptive. The hatred is palpable, but it is irresponsible to perpetuate it by cooperating with it. It’s time to put the demagogues and pettifoggers to pasture. If Cuban-Americans wish to continue to shout anti-Castro slogan, that–like Guillen’s opinion–is protected under the First Amendment. So too is the right of the rest of us to ignore them. A huge “BOO!” to the Marlins, the media, and Major League Baseball; for once Ozzie Guillen is a wronged man.

Note to Christians--Stop Whinging!

Learn this word and stop doing it!

The British have a wonderful word that I’d like to see become part of the American lexicon: whinging (win’ jing’). To whinge is complain in that special whiny, moaning, woe-is-me way that makes everyone around you want to encase you in cement and send you to visit Mafia dons reposing at the bottom of the East River. It often connotes those who equate some small complaint with an international plot to destroy their personal happiness and undermine Western values. (As if the universe actually cares!)

Among the novelty gifts one can procure in the UK are signs that say “No Whinging!” I wish I had bought a few when I was there a few weeks ago, as I have a great desire to post them in American churches, the US Congress, and in the corporate headquarters of Fox News. In the name of preserving Christianity, the political right, the conservative blogosphere, and Catholic bishops simply won’t let go of the idea that insurers should be required to offer birth control services and that hospitals operating as public institutions should be required to comply with the law. They continue to whinge despite the fact that no physicians are required to perform procedures they find morally objectionable, and despite the fact that the vast majority of Catholics and Catholic hospitals support both current policy and President Obama’s proposed insurance requirements.

Right-wing whingers have recently upped the ante and incited the Ditto Heads by repackaging public health policy as a wholesale assault on Christianity. In a failed 48-51 bid to overturn the policy, the retiring Olympia Snowe was the only Republican to vote in favor of requiring insurance coverage for contraception. Conservative “journalist” S. E. Cupp­–read Ann Coulter wannabe–made the incredulous claim that the “liberal media” (the what?) is engaged in a plot to “overthrow God and silence Christian America for good.” (Query for Ms. Cupp: If God is omnipotent, does God need humans to implement the Divine plan?) Tom DeLay–now there’s a moral pillar for you!–also believes there is “a war against Christianity” being led by liberals. Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council agrees.

For God’s sake–stop whinging! This isn’t 3^rd century Rome, though there are certainly a few self-proclaimed moralists I’d gladly nominate to become Purina Lion Chow. 75% of all Americans identify as Christian. Christians are, to use a Congressional term, a super majority, and Christian morality is as close to the default position as anything can be in our politically divided republic. Once again a vociferous small group of erstwhile guardians of public virtue have constructed mountains from molehills. By most objective standards, Christian values are triumphant. Marriage? There are 58.9 million married couples in the United States–just 150,000 are gay. Abortion? There were 4.1 million live births in the US in 2009 and 1.21 million abortions, the latter a slightly higher percentage than the 25% of non-Christians in the country, so there a few backsliders in the mix. 90% of Americans believe in God and 68% of Americans claim they pray daily, the ban on school prayer be damned. (Even Fox News says that fewer than 10% of Americans never pray.) A Gallup Poll shows that 91% of Americans think that adultery is wrong.

I notice that conservatives don’t blame the liberal media for the fact that 69% of Americans believe that divorce is acceptable. That may have something to do with the fact that divorce rates are 50% higher in red states than in liberal blue states! It’s so much easier to whinge over the fact that 60% of Americans think premarital sex is fine, 56% think that homosexuality is a private matter, that around 2/3 of married Americans commit adultery, and that a whopping 99% of American women use birth control at some point in their lives. And isn’t this what started the latest round of whinging in the first place? So here’s my retort to complaining Christians: clean up your own house and stop whinging!

A Better Life Too Lightweight to Highlight Immigrant Plight

A Better Life (2011)

Directed by Chris Weitz

McLaughlin Films, 98 mins. PG-13

* *

Actor Demián Bichir garnered a Best Actor nomination for his lead in A Better Life. He’s decent in the role, but though this film’s heart is in the right place, it should have been made for the Lifetime channel not the multiplex. It’s what I would call a knee-jerk liberal film in that it draws more upon sentimentality than deep analysis.

Bichir plays Carlos Zalinda, an illegal Mexican immigrant in Los Angeles, where there’s always plenty of service work to be done for rich Anglos who ask no questions as long as the price is right. Carlos is a gardener and the sole support for his teenaged son Luis (José Julían). Carlos has lived in the United States for many years and has bought into a version of the American dream that rests on the assumption that a man who works hard, doesn’t rock the boat, and stays invisible can do well enough to provide for his son (who was born in the States and is, therefore, a citizen). Carlos does his best to dissuade his son from joining a gang. What he can’t do is hold a driver’s license, a Social Security card, or expect strong advocacy in the legal system. So he keeps his head down and when an opportunity to go into business for himself occurs, he seizes it, even though he’s aware of the risks,

You can probably write the rest of the movie from here. Of course the business deal won’t go well. Of course Carlos is going to run afoul of immigration. Of course there will be a tearful encounter with Luis and of course there will be a speech that will help Luis get back on track. Along the way some other things occur, but there’s not much depth to any of them. At just 98 minutes the film can’t get into much complexity, hence it seeks to tug on heartstrings instead. At times it feels like a Latin-flavored Terms of Endearment. Fans of weepies will probably be moved, and the film will doubtless become a favorite among advocates of immigration reform.

Alas, from where I sit, A Better Life is simply too lightweight to be a statement film. It reduces the plight of illegal immigrants to platitudes and vague constructs of “fairness.” I don’t wish to sound coldhearted, but this movie felt like a moral dilemma exercise used with junior high school kids to teach values clarification skills. I’m sure that there are thousands of real-life Carlos Zalindas out there who deserve consideration. But can we make it serious consideration? Bichir didn’t deserve a Best Actor nod and A Better Life deserves no more than a video view on a night in which other options are slim.

Dala Seeks a Pop Path

DALA

Everyone is Someone

Compass 7-4548-2

* * *

Dala is the Canadian folk/pop duo of Sheila Carabine and Amanda Walther. They have been working hard to try to break into the U.S. market, where they’re not a household name though they’ve released five records and have been nominated for several Juno awards, Canada’ s equivalent of the Grammys. Everyone is Someone is actually from 2009 and is their fourth recording, though it’s the first one to get wide U.S. distribution, thanks to a deal with Compass Records.

I can see why this record, not their forthcoming release, was chosen. Dala is often billed as an acoustic folk duo that writes original material and performs covers of icons such as Bob Dylan, Neil Young, Joni Mitchell, and Gordon Lightfoot. Everyone is Someone, though, is a pop recording. It’s shimmery, chirpy, and bright; it’s also processed, slick, and loaded with additives. The good news? Carabine and Walther have lovely voices, harmonize like angels, and are so bubbly that they defy cynicism. The record is infused with youthful energy and confident charm. Those over the age of 30 might surprise themselves by finding one of their tunes rattling around inside their brains in the sector where guilty pleasures are stored. This leads me to the downside. Because this is mostly a pop record, it opts for flash over depth. The songs are catchy, but there’s a lot of yeah, yeah, yeah and la, la, la filler that betrays the fact that there’s more bounce than Baudelaire in the lyrics. In fact, the record often feels like a collection of singles demos aimed more at producers than audiences. The production is laden with overdubs, bathed in sonic mood enhancers, and airbrushed to aural perfection. I’d be surprised, in fact, if offerings such as “Levi” and “Northern Lights” don’t get test-driven as possible singles.

To be clear, I’m not saying the lasses shouldn’t pursue a pop path; if this record is any indication, they’d raise the genre’s quality bar. I too fell sway to their infectious attraction and wish them luck. I would, though, like to hear some of the material that’s less pop and more folk. As enjoyable as I found this record to be, there’s an ephemerality to the material that makes me doubt they’ll be performing much of it in another five years. –Rob Weir

The Movie Drive Never Gets Out of Park

Didn't I see these reflections in Taxi Driver?

DRIVE (2011)

Directed by Nicholas Winding Refn

FilmDistrict, 100 mins. R (language and brief nudity)

*

One of the annual rites of spring is moaning over films and performances that should have been nominated for Oscars but weren’t. Both Drive and its star, Ryan Gosling, show up on a lot of such lists. But this time the Academy got it right; neither deserved a nod. I have no idea what critics gushing over this film saw, as it's a one-trick blood-spurting pony that wastes several good actors.

I like Gosling as an actor and think he deserved Oscar consideration for Blue Valentine last year, but it’s hard to get excited about his acting chops in Drive if, for no other reason, he only has about a dozen words of dialogue. This movie is a lame rip-off of Taxi Driver (1976) in that each film features a silent lead who spends a lot of time cruising the mean urban streets, each wishes to be virtuous, but each is driven to acts of unspeakable violence when they must save an imperiled young woman who deserves better than life has dealt her. Drive spends a lot of time with Gosling behind the wheel and many of the shots look gorgeous, but that’s because the glaring headlights, the reflected neon on wet streets, and bouncing light through the windshield are also lifted from Taxi Driver. Shall we say that when it comes to direction, Nicholas Winding Refn is no Martin Scorsese?

The plot, such as there is one, revolves around Gosling, known simply as “Driver.” He can do anything behind the wheel, but not much else, hence he’s a low-paid Hollywood stuntman who supplements his income by being a mechanic and a wheelman in heists. He’s also a man of few words whose only close associate is Shannon, the guy who runs a garage at which he works, though even Shannon hardly knows Driver. Gosling will, however, do a good deed for Irene (Carey Mulligan), a mom trying to raise her small son Benicio, whose father, Standard (Oscar Isaac), is in jail. Driver begins to fall for Irene and Benicio, the latter presumably because he, like Driver, has only recently graduated from having been pre-verbal. Driver tries to step away when Standard gets out of the joint, but is drawn into a scheme to help him pull off a robbery to get clear of debt he owes to some mob figures. Driver agrees to be the wheelman so that Standard, Irene, and Benicio can have a shot at domestic bliss. It all goes very wrong due to a double-cross involving an attempt by one West Coast crime boss (Ron Perlman) to bilk another (Albert Brooks) and steal a million dollars from an East Coast syndicate. Driver is forced to turn avenger in order to save Irene and Benicio.

There’s not much in Hossein Amini’s script that explains why Driver cares, and Mulligan, another actor whom I normally like, doesn’t do much to spark chemistry except to look doe-eyed and vulnerable. That’s not her fault; she only has marginally more dialogue than Gosling. We’re supposed to find everyone mysterious, but because none of the characters have depth, they exist only as foils for the sort of ultra violence one associates with films such as Straw Dogs, Reservoir Dogs, and A Clockwork Orange. The most creative moments in Drive involve Gosling’s methods of offing bad guys in graphic ways–not much on which to hang a plot unless you enjoy a glorified splatter film. Gosling’s performance in Drive is reminiscent of the sort of schlocky roles that Nicholas Cage takes these days. He’s buff, he’s bad, and he’s covered in blood…. Drive is a gruesome film that never gets out of park.

American League East Preview

The American League East is MLB’s elite division, and not just because of the dominance of East Coast media markets. The top four teams are, simply, stronger than any other division can hope to field. The Blue Jays, for instance, whom many people pick to finish fourth (not me!) would win the NL Central and they’d run away with the NL West. Consider that under MLB’s new Wild Card format, three AL East teams would have been in the postseason, and you get the idea.

In order of last year’s finish:

New York Yankees:

Good: Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, and Alex Rodriquez have been and remain the best infield in baseball. Curtis Granderson has adjusted to the Bronx and is a superb player. Brett Gardner can fly and is probably the best defensive left fielder in the AL. Hideki Kuroda will solidify the pitching staff, Michael Pineda looks to have talent to burn, and even at age 42 Mo Rivera sets the standard for closers. CC Sabathia is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He doesn’t always put up gaudy numbers simply because he doesn’t need to in order to win.

Bad: It’s an old club, which makes durability an issue. A-Rod’s albatross contract makes it hard to add pieces when necessary and he’s simply not worth $32 million, especially given the precariousness of his health. Andruw Jones as a fourth outfielder? Why? I’m not impressed by Raul Ibanez as DH; I’d rather see if Jorge Vazquez can hit major league pitching.

Hot Seat: Young Mr. Pineda needs to justify trading away the club’s top prospect. Rafael Soriano must show he’s recovered from his arm woes or his Yankees’ contract will be the last big one he ever sees. Phil Hughes was supposed to be another Roy Halladay; word is that he either steps it up now or he’s gone. A-Rod was supposed to break Barry Bonds’ homerun record (762). He’s an old 36 and needs 134 more. I doubt he’ll catch Babe Ruth (714), let alone Bonds or Aaron. He must have a healthy and productive year or he’ll hear it.

Prognosis: Barring major injuries, pencil in the Yankees for one of the postseason slots.

Tampa Bay Rays;

Good: As it’s been for the past five years, pitching. Who wouldn’t want a staff of Hellickson, Price, Shields, Matt Moore, Wade Davis, and Jeff Niemann? Wow!

Bad: Anyone in the starting lineup not named Evan Longoria, Matt Joyce, or Ben Zobrist, the latter two of whom are merely good, not spectacular. I’ll be damned if I see the attraction of Carlos Pena. Sure he hit 23 dingers and knocked in 80, but $10 million for .225, 111 hits and 161 strikeouts? Luke Scott might help, but he doesn’t hit for average either on a team that last year was just 23^rd in team batting average.

Hot Seat: This is Reed Brignac’s year to prove he belongs at short and not in AA. Kyle Farnsworth has never been consistent and must prove he can be. And then there’s mystery man B. J. Upton, the guy who has been the cusp of stardom longer than Matthew McConaughey and is every bit as overpaid.

Prognosis: The pitching is good enough to cover many flaws, but if one or two of the staff has an off year, it will be a DNQ year for the Rays, which is what I think will happen. There’s simply no depth to the lineup.

Boston Red Sox:

Good: The lineup is potentially fearsome: Adrian Gonzalez, David Ortiz, Kevin Youkilis, Jacoby Ellsbury, and lightening rod Dustin Pedroia. Jon Lester is among the premier southpaws in the game, Alfredo Aceves is versatile and valuable, Clay Buchholz looks as if he might become what the Yankees’ Phil Hughes hasn’t. Cody Ross was a great addition.

Bad: Chemistry. How will the Sox adjust to their historic collapse? Will Bobby Valentine light a fire under them, or induce a backlash that further entrenches the rotten ‘tude that sank the team? Let’s just say that Josh Beckett’s “apologies” have sounded neither deep nor sincere. The catching is uninspiring and shortstop looks to be a gaping hole unless young Jose Iglesias hits higher than his weight (175 lbs.). The Daniel Bard experiment doesn’t hold much promise. I said the Sox should have traded him two years ago; this year I think he’ll prove me correct.

Hot Seat: Bobby V, whose reputation vastly exceeds his results. If he hasn’t mellowed, it will be a short and tumultuous term in the Olde Towne. Beckett either mans up or is gone. Andrew Bailey must replace Pabelbon as closer; many don’t think he’ll survive the Boston media piranhas. Carl Crawford? If the seat gets any hotter his rump will catch fire. For reasons that escape me entirely, many within the organization are waiting for Youkilis to falter so they can toss him aside for Will Middlebrooks. I’d like to be the GM to catch him; a healthy Youk is Wade Boggs with a better glove and more power.

Prognosis: The Red Sox are the biggest mystery in baseball. They should be hungrier than a boatload of refugees, but they’ve been lackadaisical thus far. This baffles me. These guys have got to know they’re gone if they don’t produce. There are only two outcomes for the Red Sox–win the AL East or wait for the moving van.

Toronto Blue Jays:

Good: I’d hate to be a baseball and have Bautista, Encarnacion, Lind, and Colby Rasmus take hunks out of me. And this doesn’t even include emerging players such as catcher J P Arencibia, Brent Lawrie, Yunel Escobar, and Rajal Davis. Improve the on-base percentage (OBP) and this lineup is terrifying.

Bad: The pitching is maddeningly inconsistent, starting with Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil, guys who are untouchable one night and batting practice hurlers the next. The Jays were in the top ten in nearly every hitting category, except hits and OBP. They were in the bottom five in most pitching categories and the defense was 18^th.

Hot Seat: If the bad numbers were a product of youth, the Jays are going to be a very, very good team this year. If, on the other hand, they are the numbers of prospects who were overhyped, it’s another fourth place finish. All of the pitchers need to improve, but none more so than Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, and Kyle Drabek, especially the latter. Drabek was the linchpin of the Roy Halladay trade and his 2011 ERA was over six; that’s simply unacceptable.

Prognosis: This is my hunch team. I look for the Jays to shock the experts and make the postseason.

Baltimore Orioles:

Good: An outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Endy Chavez isn’t too shabby. Matt Wieters is just getting started. When healthy, Brian Roberts is a terrific bat. J. J. Hardy is also capable.

Bad: The pitching was dead last in ERA and near the bottom in most other categories. It’s simple: if you pitch badly, you lose badly. Count me among the Mark Reynolds detractors. Here’s what you get for 32 homers: an appalling 196 strikeouts, just 118 hits, and 36 errors. Ugh!

Hot Seat: GM Dan Duquette has his work cut out for him. Arrieta, Britton, and Matusz all look as if they need more time at AAA; instead they’re the 1-3 starters. Will they figure it out before their confidence is shattered? The odds are increasingly long.

Prognosis: Finishing fourth would be a huge step forward. But it won’t happen.

Predictions:

1. Yankees (Conditional upon the Red Sox not recovering)

2. Blue Jays (Yep--going out on a limb)

3. Red Sox (Beckett is poison and should have been traded)

4. Rays (Pitching galore but can’t hit John Goodman’s butt with a barn door)

5. Orioles (Can hit but not early and often. Can’t pitch garbage into a bin.)

American League Central Preview

Detroit seems like a lock for this division but that, of course, is what everyone said about the Red Sox in the AL East last year. There are reasons to think the Tigers could be had by the tail. In order of last year’s finish:

Detroit Tigers:

Good: Man, can they hit! Miguel Cabrera was already a wrecking machine and they’ve added Prince Fielder. There’s also Delmon Young, Alex Avila, a suddenly rejuvenated Jhonny Peralta, and emerging talents such as Clete Thomas, Ryan Rayburn, and Don Kelly. Jose Velarde saved all 49 chances last year and seldom had to when Cy Young winner Justin Verlander pitched.

Bad: Knee surgery will sideline Victor Martinez for the season. Rick Porcello doesn’t inspire as a number three (14 wins, but an ERA of almost 5), and there’s not much beyond him. Cabrera moves to third; he’s bad at first and will be worse on the hot corner.

Hot Seat: Doug Fister needs to repeat his Motown Mojo (8-1 after leaving Seattle last season), or the Tigers will need to club their way to victory. Austin Jackson fell to earth last year (.249) and needs to dust himself off. Fielder has to prove the money wouldn’t have been better spent on pitching. (It would have!)

Prognosis: Keep the runs down and the Tigers can be tamed. Even with Verlander Detroit was just 17^th in team ERA last year and there’s no reason to think that will improve dramatically. To me this looks like a team that will get you through September, but not through October.

Cleveland Indians:

Good: Derek Lowe is a good pick up who will help Justin Masterson, another one that Red Sox allowed to get away. Asdrubal Cabrera is an All-Star shortstop. Travis Hafner still has power and Shin-soo Choo is vastly underrated.

Bad: Sad = bad: Grady Sizemore is hurt once again. There are lots of holes in this line up and the staff is thin.

Hot Seat: Carlos Santana has a big bat, when he makes contact, which isn’t frequently enough. Ditto Matt LaPorta. Fausto Carmona isn’t himself; in fact, he’s actually Roberto Heredia and is at least three years older than he claimed. Plus he’s on the restricted list. The Indians may void his contract. The sudden decline in effectiveness has some wondering who Ubaldo Jimenéz really is.

Prognosis: Help awaits on the farm, but the Tribe is likely to take a few steps backward this year.

Chicago White Sox:

Good: Addition by subtraction–no more Ozzie at the helm. Danks and Floyd, if they stay, is a good top of the rotation. Alexis Ramirez is stable at short. Paul Konerko and Hall of Fame should start appearing in the same sentence.

Bad: The staff isn't deep enough. Pierzynski couldn’t throw out David Ortiz. Subtraction by subtraction–losing Buerhle, Carlos Quentin, and Sergio Santos. Matt Thronton is untested as a closer.

Hot Seat: Dylan Axelrod is being asked to become a top starter and Phil Humber simply must live up to his promise, or the ChiSox are going nowhere, especially if Jake Peavy has physical setbacks. There are no less than four players who are in their make-it-or-break-it years: Gordon Beckham (.230), Alex Rios (.227/12/44), Kosuke Fukadome (.262 but no power), and Adam Dunn (who hit a record-setting low of just .159 last year).

Prognosis: This may be the hardest team in baseball to predict. The ChiSox could win 88 games or lose 100; neither would surprise me.

Kansas City Royals:

Good: Picking up both Joanthan Sanchez and Yuniesky Betancourt were good moves. Billy Butler is scrappy and Alex Gordon finally put up great numbers (.303/23/89). Eric Hosmer and Luke Hochavar have big upsides. Few realize this, but the Royals were 4^th in league in average and 6^th in RBIs.

Bad: And they were 27^th in ERA. Therein lies a tale. It didn’t help that the highly touted Joakin Soria blew 8 (of 35) save chances. Then he blew out his shoulder and will miss 2012.

Hot Seat: The entire pitching staff. To a lesser extent, Jeff Francoeur. He had a fine year last year (.285/20.87) but his track record is that a bad year follows a decent one. At some point patience is exhausted.

Prognosis: Every spring we hear that the Royals are “turning it around” and so it appears–until May becomes June. They play in Missouri and I say, “Show me!” They should improve, but they could be the 2011 Orioles of the Midwest.

Minnesota Twins:

Good: What’s good is what’s bad: Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. If healthy, the Twins do better; if not, way too much rides on guys such as Denard Span and Josh Willingham. (The latter is a nice pick up, though not for $6 million.)

Bad: The health of the M & M boys. Losing Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel won’t help this lineup. When Carl Pavano (9-13/4.30) is your “ace,” pitching is a problem. No one on the staff broke double digits in wins last year. The lineup is filled with lots of young guys–read cheap–who probably ought to be in AAA ball.

Hot Seat: General Manager Terry Ryan is listed as “interim;” need to know more? Matt Capps is being asked to take over Joe Nathan’s spot as closer. The B & B boys (Baker and Blackburn) may be more important to the Twins’ fortunes than the M & M boys. Alas, they’ll have to elevate their pitching to reach mediocre. Francisco Liriano is atop the most-likely-to-be-traded list and nobody is going to bid high.

Prognosis: It was shocking how bad the Twins were last year, but nobody should be surprised in 2012. It would take a meltdown for any team to boost them from the basement this year.

Predictions:

1. Tigers (but they don’t make the World Series)

2. White Sox (predicted with little conviction)

3. Royals (a hunch)

4. Indians (too many missing pieces, but could climb if Sox and Royals don't)

5. Twins (too little of too much)