MLB Central Time

National League: 

 

 

1. Chicago Cubs:  Milwaukee caught lightning in a jar in 2025, but it’s hard to imagine that happening twice. On paper, the Cubs lineup and pitching is superior. Busch showed unexpected power, Crow-Armstrong is a star in the making, Happ should hit better this year, they added Bregman and Conforto, and Hoerner and Swanson are solid. Regulars Horton, Suzuki, and Austin are on the IL, but the Cubbies can cover until they come back. I’m not so sure about Boyd is a # 1 hurler, but Imanaga, Horton, and Taillon are good and they lifted Cabrera from Miami and stuck the Yankees with Weathers, the definition of a bum.

What could go wrong? The bullpen could implode without a real closer. They shuffle two catchers, one of whom hits for average but has no power and the other his opposite.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Last year I picked the Bucs to win the Central and they cratered. This year I’ll be slightly more cautious. Let’s start with the obvious. Skenes is the best pitcher in baseball not named Skubal. Chandler, their number one prospect, joins the staff fulltime this year. Keller has the stuff to be better. The lineup bulked up to give support to Reynolds. Lowe, Ozuna, and O’Hearn will help. Heralded prospect Griffin is knocking at the door.

What could go wrong? The big question is whether they’ve added enough. The 4,5 pitchers are suspect as is the relief staff. The lineup has holes that last year hit near the Mendoza Line. Do the Bucs break out or back up the van?

3. Milwaukee Brewers: Based on last year they get picked for a Wild Card, but I still shake my head at how the Brew Crew won 97 games last year. Woodruff is good, but not an ace; Misiorowski hasn’t been as good as his press clippings, Priester is on the IL, and both pitching prospects Harrison and Patrick are suspect until they prove otherwise. Megill is a fine closer. The Brewers mashed last year. Yelich and Chourio should again and perhaps (William) Contreas will also, but this is not the same lineup as last year.

What can go wrong? Quite a lot. They’ve got a hitter named Ortiz, but it’s Joey not David. Their outfield is thin and an injury to Chourio or Yelich would be devastating. In so-called small market terms, the Brewers lost more than they gained over the offseason, including Peralta, last year’s ace. Montas left as well, but no one will lose sleep over that. More harmful was the loss of Rule 5 players close to readiness.

4. Cincinnati Reds: Speaking of teams I don’t trust, I offer the Reds. De La Cruz should be a superstar. He’s faster than a congressman leaving for summer break, but he has a history starting hot and finishing in the just-okay middle. They did score big by signing Suarez, who belted 49 homers last year.  Abbott is a good starter and Pagan one of the better closers. Skipper Terry Francona is their X-factor.

What can go wrong? Other than Suarez at the plate and De La Cruz on the base paths, the lineup has a few guys who occasionally shine, but quite a few who don’t. The same is true of the pitching. They’d have to go full Milwaukee-2025 to be in the running.

5. St. Louis Cardinals: The Cards are in a rebuild and it’s probably going to be a long few years in St. Loo. Herrera hit the most homers of any current Cardinal at just 19. There won’t be many guys pitching you’ve heard of and the same goes for the everyday players. I won’t bother with what could go wrong. Count every loss under 90 as a moral victory.

American League:

 

 

1. It’s hard to argue against the Detroit Tigers. Skubal is amazing and Mize is a young arm who’d be their best were it not for Skubal. Valdez is pretty good too and one suspects Flaherty will rebound. Jansen is 38, but he’s still closing and doing it well. Torkelson isn’t flashy, but he hit 31 dingers in 2025. The Yankees should have never parted with Torres, and top prospects McGonigle and Keith should be ready to go. If either one falters the Striped Cats have Baez to step in. Greene hit 37 homers and drove in 111 last year.

What could go wrong? Sentiment aside, 43-year-old Verlander will pitch on experience but not much else. Toledo lefthander Miller might take his role sooner than later. The outfielders beyond Greene don’t hit a ton. More like 3 lb. weights. We might see prospect Max Clark sometime this summer.

2. Kansas City Royals: are capable, if the Tigers don’t seize the day. Witt might be the AL’s best shortstop and Perez its best catcher. Pasquantino is an up-and-coming slugger. If Lugo can bounce back from a down year and Wacha continues to eat innings, KC could surprise. Estevez will close the door on close games, as he did 42 times last year.

What could go wrong? Like the Tigers, the outfield is more hope than output. I expect to see (Starling) Marte take somebody’s job. For all its potential, only Bubic had a (barely) winning record among starters and their top prospects are in the low minors. I might also mention that KC was 2025’s sexy pick in the AL Central and went 82-80.

3. The Cleveland Guardians won the Central last year and few managers do as much with constant turnover as Vogt. The only guys who jump out at you in the lineup are (Jose) Ramirez and Hoskins (via the Brewers). How do they do it? Pitching, mainly, but they lost a starter (Means) over the winter plus four relievers. They still have (Gavin) Williams and Bibee, who underperformed in 2025. What could go wrong? Every year it’s an open question how Cleveland’s Scotch tape roster will perform. Vogt will get the best out of his players, but he will need luck this year as the talent is either inexperienced or mediocre. Luckily, they have one of the best pipelines of minor league talent. I doubt that everyone projected to be a starter will be so by midseason. Lefty Messick is their top pitching prospect but if he’s not ready, the staff will be challenged.

4. The Minnesota Twins have (Joe) Ryan as their ace and he’s a lot better than many people think. Other than Woods Richardson, though, the rest pushes the mediocrity needle to its far edge unless the prospects are Skenes clones. Buxton had a monster year at the plate last year, but ask me if I think he’ll duplicate it.

What could go wrong? I’ll admit it; I freaking hate the Twins. Every year they whine about being a small market team, though it’s a top-20 media locale of nearly four million and is owned by the filthy rich Pohland family. They seldom spend real money on talent and act as if they are saints for keeping the Twins in Minnesota. Memo: These guys just aren’t good enough.

5.  The Chicago White Sox lost more than 100 games last year. They will be better this year but there’s still a long road from here to respectability. The Sox will field a lot of pitchers who are more like household rumors than household names. They have Acuna and Sosa in the lineup, but it’s Luisangel and Lenyn, not Ronald or Sammy. Teel is on the IL but is a promising catcher. Murakami came over from Japan and is allegedly a powerful hitter with an iron glove. Hays, plucked from free agency is a good player. Benintendi hit 20 homers last year, but no one knows how. The Chi Sox allegedly have the second-best farm system in MLB. We’ll likely see some of those lads this summer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MLB: How to Buy the West

 

 

 

Full confession: I don’t scout the West very much, so if there’s a kid who busts out to be a rookie of the year candidate, my apologies.

 

National League

 

1. The cream of the NL West, if not all of MLB is the Los Angeles Dodgers, the two-time defending World Series champion. They’re probably the best team in Japan as well, which is where they’ve cherrypicked talent lately. They are what a billion dollars in salary get you because when the Dodgers were bad, MLB made a sweetheart deal that allowed LA to hide salaries via deferred payments, write-offs, and tax-dodges.

            They have MLB’s best everyday player, Ohtani, who might be their second-best pitcher as well. Glasnow, Snell, and Yamamoto can also throw pretty well, and they scooped up Edwin Diaz in free agency to stabilize the bullpen and still have Tanner Scott. And who wouldn’t a daily lineup that includes Ohtani, Freeman, Betts, Rojas, Hernandez, Smith, and 2026’s prize free agent, Kyle Tucker?

 

Weaknesses? The bullpen before you get to Scott or Diaz is quite hittable. Sasaki impresses those who think speed is everything, but batters have figured him out. Plus, he’s on the IL. 

 

2. The San Diego Padres turned over their roster, but kept key pitchers like Cease, King, Darvish, and Musgrave. They might have the NL’s best relief pitcher in young Mason Miller, added innings guy Pivetta, and the rest of their staff is made up of Yankees castoffs such as Brito, Marinaccio, Peralta, and Vasquez. That’s not a bad thing, as New York has fallen into a bad habit of dumping useful players for bets on those who aren’t. San Diego may have done the same thing with signing Bueler, who looks gassed, and Castellanos the worst outfielder in MLB and a known clubhouse distraction. The lineup, though is formidable with bats such as Bogaerts, Machado, Tatis Jr. and Laureano. Their bullpen might be better than that of the Dodgers.

 

Weaknesses? There are weak spots after jettisoning Kim and Solano. Will catcher Fermin handle the staff as well as Higashioka?

 

3. I’m not sold on this pick, but I think the Arizona Diamondbacks will squeeze out third place based on very good pitching staff: Kelly (currently on the IL) , Burnes, Gallen, Pfadtt, and (hopefully) Eduardo Martinzez, who are on the IL. 

 

Weaknesses? Other than Carroll, Marte, and (they hope) the aging Arendo there aren’t many hitters who will ruin a good pitcher’s sleep. Last year, the D’Backs had the worst bullpen in baseball and adding the ruined arm of Loaisiga is unlikely to help.

 

4. The San Franciso Giants:  I could have jumped straight to weaknesses, but I should give a shout out to Ray and Webb, who are good pitchers, gold glove outfielder Bader, high OBP hitter Arraez who seems always to be on base, and Chapman or Devers who can knock him in.

 

Weaknesses: More holes than a hobo’s socks. They are slow, swing at too many bad pitches, and lack power. Plus, new manager Tony Vitello has only college baseball experience. He may turn out to be a good skipper, but I doubt that will be this year.

 

5. Would someone fold the deckchairs on the U.S.S. Colorado Rockies? They lost 119 games last year and could lose 120 this year. Other than Freeland, Lorenzen, and (I Need a New Agent) Kris Bryant you won’t have heard of any of the kids who will be playing for the Rockies this year. Best Case Scenario: By the end of the season a couple of hopeful prospects will have emerged but nobody seems to know if there’s any sort of plan, let alone a “grand” one.

 

 

 

 

American League:

 

1. I’m seldom sold on the Seattle Mariners, but they should have enough to prevail again in the flawed AL West. First, though, hats off to catcher Cal Raleigh who slammed 60 homers last year. He probably won’t duplicate that in 2026, but he has other decenthitters around him: Naylor, Julio Roriguez, Crawford, Canzone, Robles and newcomers Donovan and Refsnyder. The staff is anchored by Castillo and Woo.

 

Weaknesses: The Mariners tend to look great on paper but have too many players who have been less than the sum of their parts. Castillo is said to be an ace, but he’s 84-84 lifetime and has had a winning record in just three of his 9 years in MLB. Robles is the hitter equivalent, 9 years in the majors, but a .247 hitter based mainly on two great years and has never had more than 17 homers. I’ll go on record as saying that top prospect Colt Emerson will be an early call-up. The M’s should rock the AL West but don’t blame me if it’s merely a mild shake.

 

2. Here’s my wild prediction for 2026. The Athletics (playing in Sacramento but with no city designation) will finish second in the AL West. (Once they move into their very ugly domed stadium in Las Vegas, we need never care about them again!) The A’s have done a nice job of bringing along young hitters mixed with a few veterans. Four A’s hit 25 or more homers in 2025: Soderstrom (25), Rooker (30), Langeliers (31), and Kurtz (36).

 

Weaknesses? Here’s where my optimism could turn to foolishness. You’ll notice there are no pitchers mentioned. Their top three relievers (after trading Miller) had a total of seven saves between them and all five of their starters had ERAs well north of four. They are depending on Luis Severino to be their ace. He’s a guy the Yankees released and went 8-11 for the A’s last year. Look for young pitchers Gage Jump and Jack Perkins to breakout early, or this young A’s team will finish fourth, not second.

 

3. The Houston Astros are a shell of what they were are their apex, but they’re still a decent ballclub. Walker, Altuve, Pena, and Correa make up one of the best infields in the AL now that Correa has moved to third to allow Penna to take over short. Diaz is strong behind the plate and Hader is one of the best closers around. Brown is considered their number one starter given Javier’s fall off in 2025, and they have high hopes for Japanese starter Imai, though a lot of other clubs passed on him. If McCullers and Burrows pitch to their potential, the ‘Stros will have strong pitching.

 

Weaknesses? The outfield is a wing and a prayer. Put another way, put the three starters together and they don’t add up to one Kyle Tucker. Don’t be surprised if prospect Matthews and Cole displace a few incumbents in late spring. Walker is a fine defensive first baseman, but his inconsistent bat is why teams that needed one didn’t pursue him back in 2024.

 

4. If the A’s are a fantasy pick and the Astros don’t up their game, the rebuilding Texas Rangers could move up a slot or two. Eovaldi and de Grom are frontline starters. Everyday players include Nimmo (from the Mets), Aroldis Garcia, Seager, and Langford, the latter a young player with the ceiling of a star.

 

Weaknesses?  The Rangers are quite thin everywhere. Look for Higashioka to displace Jansen as catcher but overall, the Rangers simply can’t afford injuries to key players like de Grom, Altuve, or Langford. Even if they stay healthy, they’ll be several pieces short. Robert Garcia is their closer and had but nine last year. If he goes down, the ball goes to Beeks. (Really?) Walcott, still just 18, has raked this spring and might hit his way into the lineup.

 

5. Unless Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Great Pumpkin collectively work magic the Los Angeles (really Anaheim) Angels will be hard-pressed to improve on 2025’s 99-loss season. They redid their pitching staff, which shouldn’t have been hard, but gave up their third best hitter, Taylor Ward, to acquire Grayson Rodriguez who has a dead arm. Deters is their number 3 guy and he was in bullpen last year. Neither # 1 nor # 2 (Soriano and Kikkuchi) had winning records. If I asked you who was their best hitter, you’d be tempted to say Trout, except his line last year was .232/26/64. Adell’s 37 homers led the club.

 

Weaknesses? Everywhere. When a bust like Moncada is your new third baseman, you’re in trouble. Ditto When the two guys pegged to close games are vets who collectively had four last year. The Angels should do the kind thing and trade Trout to the Dodgers for a truckload of prospects.