4/3/18

AL East: Big Bats or Big Arms?


American League East 2018:
Sox versus the Socks




The swagger returns to the American League East. Judge and Stanton are the new Mantle and Maris—or at least that’s how most prognosticators see it. I am a Yankees fan, so I want them to be right, but as a baseball realist I always assume great pitching prevails over hitters who can sock the old horsehide from the Bronx to Westchester County. That’s why I see Boston winning the division.

Will Win: Boston Red Sox and not because they added J D Martinez. Sale, Price, Pomeranz, Porcello, and Rodriguez will shut down a lot of lineups, including that of the Yankees. Betts and Benitendi are fine players. It might be put up or ship out time for Bradley and Bogaerts, though. A healthy Pedroia would help, though it’s possible he’ll never again be what he was. They won't need to score a lot of runs.

Wild Card: That’s the route the New York Yankees will have to take. There are simply no holes in the lineup when you consider that Drury, who hit .267 last year, will likely bat ninth. All of the Judge/Stanton hype overlooks the fact that Gary Sánchez is probably a better hitter than either of them. There’s also Gregorius, Gardner, Walker, and Hicks. Here’s where it gets tricky, though. The Yankees couldn’t unload dead wood Ellsbury so they couldn’t sign what they really needed: a topnotch pitcher. Severino might be an ace, but he’s young and also might take a step back. Tanaka and his fragile elbow make him Jeckyl and Hyde, Gray always seems to find a bat at the wrong time, and Sabathia is in the twilight of his career. Don’t be surprised if Montgomery wins more games than any of the aforementioned. It’s also unrealistic to imagine that Judge and Stanton can repeat their otherworldly 2017 performances.  

Dark Horse: The Toronto Blue Jays have a nice pitching staff, but they’ll need either the Yankees or Red Sox to tank to get into the postseason.

Predicted Order of Finish:

1. Boston Red Sox:  They will still lack bat power, but power arms will compensate.
2. New York Yankees: They will hit a ton, but pitching is a question mark.
3. Toronto Blue Jays: They will pitch well, but everything else is a question mark.
4. Baltimore Orioles: They are filled with question marks.
5. Tampa Rays: No question about it, the Rays will stink. It’s possible that between the Rays and the Marlins, Florida teams will lose 200 games.
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4/2/18

The Insult a Brilliant Look at the Stupidity of Ethnic Conflict


THE INSULT (2017)
Directed by Ziad Doueri
Diaphana Films, 112 minutes, R (which is ridiculous!)
In Arabic and French with subtitles
★★★★★

The Insult is a powerful portrait in miniature of the tragedies of tribalism. I’m glad I wasn’t on the Oscar selection committee, as I don’t know how would have voted for Best Foreign Film given a choice between this film and A Fantastic Woman. Seldom have I seen such a cogent exploration of how little it takes to ignite ancient hatred or how those who started the fire can stand idly by even after they regret striking the first match.

The Insult is set in a section of Beirut, Lebanon in which many Palestinians reside. Some come from old families, some are refugees, and some are illegal. Things are looking up; after a long civil war, things are actually being built and rebuilt in Beirut. That’s where we come in. A construction crew headed by Yasser (Kamel El Basha) is rehabbing infrastructure when suddenly he is doused with water running from a makeshift drainpipe on a terrace above him occupied by Tony (Abdel Karam) and his pregnant wife Shirine (Rita Hayek). A rebuffed offer to repair the illegal pipe touches off a tit-for-tat dispute in which harsh words are uttered. If this sounds like your routine neighborhood squabble, your neck of the woods isn’t a slice of Beirut where Maronite Christians live cheek by jowl with Palestinian Muslims. Nor is it one in which Christians like Tony diet on incendiary broadcasts that make our radio shock jocks seem like Eagle Scouts and nasties like the PLO and Hezbollah stand ready to declare jihad over spilt water. And it’s surely not one where a hotheaded swear can be grounds for a libel suit or a hate crimes countersuit.

The big picture is that Tony and Yasser are caught in a historical maelstrom. Lebanon gained its independence from France in 1945 and once enjoyed a reputation as the playground of the Middle East, its beaches and flourishing network of vices a destination for Euro jetsetters. (Think Cuba before Castro.) It is blessed by beauty and cursed by geography; its next-door neighbors are Israel, Syria, and the Golan Heights. For a while the lid remained on the pot because of an agreement that Christians would control 55% of government offices, including the presidency (a Maronite) and the Deputy Prime Minister (Greek Orthodox). The Prime Minister, though, would be a Shi’te Muslim and his deputy a Sunni. Censuses were avoided like a Biblical/Quranic plague. In 1975, the pot boiled over and scalded Lebanon with a civil war that lasted until 1990, sent a million Lebanese into exodus, and left 120,000 dead. Along the way there were U.S. interventions and withdrawals, an Israeli invasion to punish Hezbollah, and a Syrian occupation that began in 1976 and ended only in 2005. Since then, as a character in The Insult observes, there has been fragile peace, “but no reconciliation.”  

Tony and Yasser are the blue-collar microcosm of Lebanon’s sad history. Tony is an auto mechanic and Yasser a construction worker who is just as devoted to his wife, Manal (Christine Choueiri) as Tony to Shirine, yet neither man can take their wife's advice to settle their dispute. There is far more than pigheaded manhood at stake; each, we discover, were pawns in past massacres and each bears the scars—Tony through his anger and Yasser his smoldering stoicism. There is a poignant moment in which a failed reconciliation ends with Tony driving away, but Yasser sitting in a stalled car. Tony backs up, lifts the hood, and fixes the car; Tony glares without conviction and Yasser nods with a Mona Lisa smile upon his lips. Both men secretly long to end the feud. But is it too late?

Gandhi famously observed that, “an eye for an eye makes the whole world blind.” If you think this little more than a naïve aphorism, watch The Insult and reconsider. Both principal actors are superb in this film, but hatred is the unaccredited lead. This film hit me personally. I came of age during the Vietnam War, which appeared utter madness and turned me into the pacifist I remain. In my life, I have seen nothing over which people fight that justifies the horrors that ensue. The Insult drove that home anew. Ultimately, Gandhi is correct. So too was John F. Kennedy, who observed, "Mankind must put an end to war before war puts an end to mankind." The Insult is about more than a personal conflict elevated to widespread tragedy; it is a weeping planet’s lament.

Rob Weir


3/30/18

John Gorka: March 2018 Album of the Month

 
 
TRUE IN TIME
By John Gorka
Redhouse Records

It's almost impossible to imagine that in July, John Gorka will turn sixty. Wasn't it just yesterday that Gorka was touring his 1987 debut, I Know? The voice grabbed you right away: an expressive, smooth and powerful baritone, but he was so painfully shy  he had trouble looking at his audience and he lacked the polish for stage chat. Gorka got over it by working harder at his craft than just about anyone I ever knew—right down to forcing himself to write everyday. Try that if you think it's easy. For Gorka it has meant lots of throwaways, but also truly memorable lines and tunes.

Fourteen albums later there are few performers as respected and beloved as John Gorka. Time in Time is both old school and nostalgic, and he has earned the right to indulge in both. It also helps that it's a terrific record—the kind that, when reviewed, finds critics split over which is the best song and which the weakest. That's also a logical evolution of Gorka's music. You can call him a folk artist, but you might also be tempted to slap on labels such as blues, country, or acoustic café jazz, the last of these suitable for the dreamy "Fallen for You," or the title track, which was inspired by the nearly simultaneous deaths of Debbie Reynolds and her daughter, Carrie Fisher.

I confess great fondness for his autobiographical "Nazarene Guitar," which is filled with insider wordplays that are Gorka staples. I've known John since he first hit the road and this song takes on additional meaning when you know that his reference to becoming a "South Mountain star" is self-deprecating humor. Gorka hails from New Jersey, but honed his skills in the rounded hills of eastern Pennsylvania. For a time he was the adopted house act at Godfrey Daniels, a venerable Bethlehem, PA club and that Nazareth is a small town four miles away. It's a catchy tune that's enhanced by Joe Savage's pedal steel. One suspects his time in Pennsylvania also factored into the tongue-and-cheek "Mennonite Girl," rendered in an acoustic country/gospel mash. Plus I'll listen to anything that spotlights Lucy Kaplansky's backup vocals; she's a wonderful solo performer, but she's among my all-time favorites when it comes to texturing other people's songs. Another one with small jokes is "The Ballad of Iris and Pearl," in which Gorka imagines two women as the hidden muses of Bill Monroe, Elvis, and Dylan. It's also the case that Iris and Pearl are the names of friend Eliza Gilkyson's dogs! Gorka's humor is more broad in "The Body Part Medley," but it's a goofy send-up of what those of us getting on in years call the "organ recital," the litany of physical woes that foregrounds way too many conversations between old friends who are also old.

That same crowd and those with ancient souls will also enjoy "Arroyo Seco," Gorka's tribute to the glories of a time-warp New Mexico town: It was a place where the hippies won/In the land of the supermoon/Where the dream was never done/And there was still room for you. If you're wondering, it's real place near Taos and yes, there are still for-real hippie enclaves. (Madrid, NM is another.) "Cry For Help" is a sad and serious song about a man drinking to get over the one who got away, and you'd be right to think that doesn't work very well. There's also a cowboy song ("Red Eye and Roses"), the bluesy "Tattooed," and a spread-the-love-but-stuck-in-time "Crowded Heart." Want some good writing? In the last-mentioned song he sees himself looking at vintage photos: Pictures of what once was/Not what's come to be. It's only appropriate that I draw this review to a close by referencing "Blues with a Rising Sun," which is Gorka's letter to legendary bluesman Son House, who died in 1988—just as Gorka was starting out. A coincidence? Given the way John Gorka writes, probably not.

There are hints of rust in Gorka's voice, but his remains one of the most memorable set of pipes in the business. I also appreciated his clarity of enunciation and the way he syncopates rhythms to accent that voice. True in Time is a mature and superior endeavor.

Rob Weir

3/29/18

Cubs or Brewers? NL Central


NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL 2018:
BEARS AND BEERS


Most analysts think the Cubs will win this division easily. I think they’ll take the NL Central crown, but they won’t feast like a grizzly at a salmon run.

Will Win:  The Chicago Cubs should prevail on the strength of a powerful lineup led by Happ, Bryant, Contreras, Schwarber, and Rizzo. (What idiot allowed him to get out of Boston?) But the Cubs are vulnerable; their pitching looks better on paper than on the field. I think they will regret allowing Arrieta to walk in the belief he’s in decline. That’s actually the case with the guy they signed, Darvish. Quintana so far hasn’t been worth what they surrendered to get him, Hendricks underwhelmed in 2017, and I’ve long thought Lester an under-performing slacker.

Watch Out: The Milwaukee Brewers have holes, but they added (read: stole) Yelich, and Shaw had a break out year. (What idiot allowed him to get out of Boston?) Cain will be dangerous atop the order and if Braun bounces back, the Brew Crew isn’t far behind the Cubs. Pitching is a question mark, though Davies may again out-duel anyone on the Cubs staff. Chacin and Anderson hold out promise.

Dark Horse: Everyone is writing off the St. Louis Cardinals and that’s foolish. Fowler, Carpenter, Pham, Orzuna, DeJong, and Gyoko are solid and under-appreciated. Like everyone else in the division, pitching is a question mark. In the Cards’ case, though, it starts with health, especially that of Adam Wainwright. Watch for a kid named Alex Reyes. I don’t think they’re good enough, but if others falter….

Predicted Finish:

1. Chicago Cubs: Should hang on by a claw.
2. Milwaukee Brewers: Slowly building a team that’s better than any beer brewed in Milwaukee.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: Matheny is a better manager than the Cubs’ Maddon and is smart enough to pilfer a few games. That’s only enough if luck smiles on Saint Lou.
4. Pittsburgh Pirates: The Pirates had a small window for winning. It has closed and they’ve settled back into mediocrity.
5. Cincinnati Reds: The ace of the staff is Homer Bailey. Yeah—Homer Bailey. Need more?



3/28/18

AL Central: The Twinkies Rise


American League Central 2018:
Upset Special


Because MLB perpetuates the myth of ‘small-market’ teams, every year a certain number of filthy rich owners don their hobo clothes and offload high-priced talent. In truth, it’s the size of the owner’s wallet that matters, not the size of the market. An inordinate number of these poor-in-their-own-minds-only owners operate in the middle of the country.

For this reason, I am not picking the Cleveland Indians to repeat; this is the year the Twinkies (Minnesota Twins) take advantage of Cleveland’s budget-cutting.

Will Win: The Minnesota Twins are the only team that added much to their budget. Mauer doesn’t have much left in the tank, but he’ll look rejuvenated given the addition of Logan Morrison to go with Dozier, Sáno, Kepler, and Escobar. I still think Buxton is a bust, but he at least flashes great leather. They also added Lynn and Odorizzi to the staff and Ervin Santana will soon come off the DL. Pineda also, but I know he’s a fraud.

Dark Horse: Cleveland Indians. It’s odd to call them that because they’re favored, but losing Carlos Santana, Bruce, Napoli, and Allen is a big toll. They added Alonso to go with Lindor, Kipnis, and Ramirez so we’ll have to see how that works out. Ditto catcher Mejia and whether Encarnacion can ward off decline. Kluber, Carrasco, and Bauer head a formidable staff, with Miller waiting to bail any pitcher out of trouble. They also have the best manager in MLB. So why pick them to falter? Chemistry and a hunch.

Predicted Finish:

1. Minnesota Twins: I might look foolish very early on this one, but the stars seem to be aligning.
2. Cleveland Indians: This is a playoff-bound team one way or another.
3. Chicago White Sox: Quietly rebuilding and have a nice core to go with Kopech, Moncada, and a few other kids in the wings. They won’t be a pushover this year. Or the next, or in the foreseeable future.
4. Kansas City Royals: They won the World Series in 2015 and made money. Then their owner decided he was too poor. Enough left to be decent, but not enough to get back to the playoffs.
5. Detroit Tigers: Held a fire sale and they’re probably not done yet. Like the city, things are looking grim for the tabby cats.

Alternate Side Well Written but Uninteresting


ALTERNATE SIDE (2018)
By Anna Quindlen
Random House, 304 pages
★★★

On a scale from zero to five, how should one rate a very well written novel populated with no one you find remotely interesting or likable? Anna Quindlen’s latest, Alternate Side, takes us inside a single cul-de-sac block. Residents sport surnames such as Nolan, Fenstermacher, Lessman, Fisk, and Rizzoli but the only diversity you find in this neighborhood is the imported help. How much do you care about rich, over-privileged, over-pampered Manhattanites? I couldn't care less.

Ostensibly Alternate Sides revolves around Nora and Charlie Nolan, who have been married for 25 years. They have twins, Rachel and Oliver, who still address their parents as “Mommy” and “Daddy,” though they are both about to enter elite colleges. But maybe infantilization should be expected within a family where the emotional and physical heavy lifting is done by Charity, the Nolans’ nanny/housekeeper. As everyone tells them, the Nolans have a golden marriage, which is of course, a version of Chekov’s gun that tells us they don’t. It’s also pretty obvious by the middle of the first chapter that Charlie is a jerk who wants to be a player, and a shallow and dull one to boot. He’s the sort that likes to speak in One. Word. Sentences. This annoys Nora no end and she’s grown bored with him. Not that Nora is the deep end of the pool herself. She abandoned her college idealism and now runs the Museum of Jewelry, a vanity enterprise whose owner used her own stash to build the permanent collection. Nora’s also being courted by a wealthy entrepreneur to head his private foundation, which would make Nora the player Charlie will never be.

Clearly Ms. Quindlen has other fish to fry in addition to autopsying a failing marriage. The novel’s title alludes to New York City’s infamous even side/odd side parking scheme. It also signifies class distinctions and a central who-did-what-and-why dispute that magnifies the class divide. Quindlen’s hidden objective is to deliver a mash note to New York. In this sense, the alternate sides are Manhattan’s seductive allure and mythos versus the reality of chaos, dodgy street characters, decaying infrastructure, and class-defiant rats. Among the many ways Quindlen highlights this is by abutting the street of the haute bourgeoisie with SRO apartments.  

In a sense, Quindlen offers a fictional update to Jacob Riis’s 1890 look at New York’s bifurcations in How the Other Half Lives, though the Nolans and their neighbors are pretty far north of the halfway marker on the SES pole. The novel’s central device underscores this. Charlie is ecstatic when he becomes eligible to rent one of six parking spaces in a lot near his home. Never mind that keeping a car in Manhattan is roughly as useful as owning a Zamboni in Ecuador, it bespeaks the Nolans’ wealth that Charlie thinks nothing of spending $325 a month to park a car he seldom uses. The space isn’t about being pragmatic; it’s a status-conferring form of conspicuous consumption. If the Nolans’ golden marriage is Checkov’s gun, that space is his rifle or, more properly speaking, a club through which class conflict erupts and neighbors must take sides.

Perhaps you see my dilemma. Quindlen’s novel is exceedingly well crafted and its prose flows far more smoothly than Midtown traffic. The novel falters, though, because Quindlen focuses on the wrong side of the class chasm. Although (for plot purposes) Nora visits the Bronx and abstractly sympathizes with a Latino handyman after an attack—something many of her neighbors can’t comprehend—when she ultimately must change her life, she simply slides from one version of privilege to another. Is she supposed to be our sympathetic character? From where I sit she is as unspeakably awful as everyone else in her neighborhood, simply in a quieter and more dignified fashion.

Throughout the novel characters used the phrase “first-world problem” when trying to put things into proper perspective. Alas, none of them actually has any genuine perspective. I’ll go on record and say that only Los Angeles celebrities are more smug and out-of-touch than wealthy New Yorkers. I didn’t feel anyone’s pain in Alternate Side. Do I care about people who worry about good plastic surgeons, pedicures, hold hen sessions at trendy restaurants, and bemoan how hard it is to get a good Cobb salad?  As much as I admire Anna Quindlen as an author, the experience of reading Alternate Side is like being trapped inside of one of Woody Allen’s particularly unctuous New York movies. Thus, when Nora reminds us of the many reasons she could never leave Manhattan, we can but shrug over her impoverished imagination. Give Quindlen three stars: five as a writer and one for characterization.  

Rob Weir

Alternate Side was released on March 18. I read an advance copy courtesy of Random House and NetGalley.




3/27/18

AL West: Astros Remain in Orbit


AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST 2018:
ASTROS TO LIFT OFF AGAIN

 


The Houston Astros are the defending World Series champs and few would be surprised if they went back-to-back in 2018. All of that is to say they will win the AL West—easily.

Will Win: The Astros. How would you like to have a staff so deep you could trade McHugh for another bat? The Astros added Gerritt Cole to a staff with Verlander, Keuchel. McCullers, and Morton. They have mini-mite Altuve who does it all, along with Gattis, Gurriel, Correa, Springer, and Reddick. Plus, as I said, they will probably use McHugh as bait to add to this. This is a 100+ win team unless three or four arms fall off.

Will Disappoint: The Los Angeles Angels. They won the Ohtani sweepstakes and already a bit of buyer's regret is seeping in. It would be good for MLB if he's really good and he might be—but I doubt it will be this year; his very presence will take at-bats from Pujols, who has slipped but has still has forgotten more about hitting than Ohtani currently knows. LA has Mike Trout, MLB's best talent, and some useful guys—Kinsler, Simmons, Cozart—but the pitching is mediocre at best and most of it is pretty awful.

Dark Horse:  I hesitate to say it since they are chronic underachievers, but I'll go with the Seattle Mariners. I like Cruz, Cano, and Seager in the middle of the lineup and a staff with King Felix, Paxton, and Pazos looks better than that of the Angels.


Predicted Finish:

1.  Houston Astros: I would be shocking if they didn't go deep into the postseason.
2.  Seattle Mariners: Normally I'd say Texas, but wait for it…
3. Texas Rangers: Love their lineup of Beltre, Gallo, Odor, and Profar. Decent staff as well. Texas will start strong, but management knows this team isn't good enough. I look for a makeover at trade deadline in which the disappointing Andrus will go, as will Fister, Hamels, and Moore.
4. Los Angeles Angels: They need pitching and that goes well beyond the hope that Ohtani turns into a hurling/slugging Babe Ruth.
5. Oakland A's: It's getting boring. Get a few retreads, hope, falter, and trade. Most likely to go by mid season: Piscotty, Lucroy, Khris Davis.