Soft Pick II: Yankees to Top AL East

Jeter to Go Out with Glory?

The only thing that would surprise me about the American League East would be if the Blue Jays won it. I don’t think the Orioles can either, but I really don’t see a clear favorite among the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees. Each has big uncertainties and the division is so competitive that 88 victories might be enough.

The Red Sox won the World Series last year, when the experts picked them to finish last. This year they’re picked to win. Uh oh. No matter who you root for, you have to love the scrappy Pedroia, the affable Ortiz, and the blue-collar ethos of Victorino. There are, however, looming questions. Bogaerts may be the shortstop of the future, but when does that begin? Which Middlebrooks shows up, the formerly promising guy, or the recent disappointing one? Can Bradley replace Ellsbury? Will Grady Sizemore ever again be healthy? Can Napoli stay hale? Gomes, Nava, Uehara–go-to guys, or career years in 2013? Is Pierzynski the kind of poison they jettisoned after 2012?  Lester and Buchholtz head a talented staff, though I’ve never been sold on Lackey and I wonder how much Peavy has left. Lots of arms at Pawtucket, but until they perform in Boston, they are as useful as an untested postulate.

The Rays are who they always are–great pitchers heading a makeshift lineup. Price, Cobb, Archer, Moore, and Hellickson (currently injured) make up the deepest staff in baseball. If healthy, Balfour gives them a for-real closer. Beyond this, the Rays need to pray that Myers is all he’s cracked up to be, that Longoria isn’t hurt again, and that Zobrist and Loney duplicate 2013, because the rest of these guys couldn’t get hits in heavy traffic. As usual, I think the Rays will be good, but about $30 million in payroll short of being great.

The Yankees? I honestly have no idea. They had nothing last year except Cano and still won 85 games. Are they 5 or 6 games better with McCann, Ellsbury, Beltrán, and Tanaka, but not Cano? The answer begins and ends with the DL–as in avoiding it. If Texeira, Jeter, Roberts, and Sabathia stay healthy and Pineda is back from surgery, the Yankees could shock experts and go to the World Series. Soriano still has pop in his bat, Gardner runs like a deer, Kelly Johnson is usefully versatile, Tanaka has to better than Hughes, and I’m not worried about Robertson replacing Mo Rivera. Watch the DL. If the Yankees don’t dominate it, they might steal the AL East. And you know Derek Jeter will leave nothing on the table in his swan song year.

Two years ago the Orioles were on the cusp. Management let the moment slip away and it doesn’t appear that adding powered-by-steroids Cruz or the enigmatic arm of Jimenéz is enough. The O’s do have a stacked outfield in Jones, Markakis, Reinhold, and Cruz. Machado es muy machista, and Wieters is good (though not as good as advertised). Will Hardy and Davis duplicate 2013? The Orioles can definitely hit, but can they pitch? Not so much. Chen, Tillman, Britton, Norris, and Jimenéz could star in a new reality show titled Surviving on Promise. Their best arm might be Miquel González. I see the O’s on the wrong end of too many 9-6 games.

Speaking of unfulfilled promise, I’ve officially given up on the Blue Jays. Okay, they can hit: Bautista, Encarnacion. Reyes (if healthy), Rasmus, Lind…. They also strike out more than a pimply 14-year-old attending a senior high dance. Signing post-‘roids Melky Cabrera was an expensive mistake and Lawrie looks like a bust. Alas, that’s true of their hurlers as well. Drabek was supposed to make Toronto forget about Halladay; he has, but only because Halladay retired! Morrow has morphed into To-Morrow, and Happ into Happless. I still like Buerhle, but as a 4-5 guy, not an ace. Dickey is 39, was mediocre last year, and trading him after his 2012 Cy Young now looks like one of the Mets’ shrewder moves.

Predictions:

1. Yankees: Despite the holes, this looks like a much better team–if healthy. If not… call ‘em the   Tankees and push ‘em to fourth.

2. Red Sox: I simply don’t believe winning a World Series is entirely a matter of luck.

3. Rays: I’ve said it about the Rays for several years: You can’t win it all on the cheap.

4. Orioles: Which is why the Orioles will again be also-rans. Still…

5. Jays: Spending a lot of money doesn’t count if you spend it poorly. And you just don’t win in the AL East with a Walmart pitching staff.

Soft Pick: Nationals in NL East

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Picked with little conviction!

The National League East is ripe for the Nationals to pluck, though most Eastern sportswriters like this team more than I do. Harper looks to be a very good player, though he’s no Mike Trout. He may not even be Ryan Zimmerman. I do like Harper and Zimmerman, though, plus Desmond, Rendon, and Ramos. As for Werth, LaRoche, and Span–not so much. Who knows what Strasburg will bring, Cy Young or DL? But his star has been eclipsed by Jordan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez, who are very good. Fister will help too.  Storen and Soriano shut it down in the 8^th and 9^th, though middle relief looks shaky.

The Braves won the East last year the way the Braves always win: pitching. But is Medlen an ace? And which Gavin Floyd did they acquire, Jekyll or Hyde? Minor, Tehrén, Beachy… all solid guys, though not the sort that make hitters quake. Closer Kimbrel does, though. The everyday lineup is proletarian. Can Chris “Don’t call me Chipper” Johnson duplicate 2013? Freeman and Uggla are fine and Justin Upton is steady. B.J. Upton should be dumped for a rosin bag, and Heyward just can’t seem to find consistency. Catching looks good defensively, but not there's much power. Speaking of defense–is Simmons the next coming of Ozzie Smith?

UPDATE: Since this was first posted Medlen has been scheduled for Tommy John surgery and is out for the season. The Braves signed E. Santana for insurance. There's a reason he was the last high profile free agent pitcher- he's maddeningly inconsistent and isn't all that good when he's "on." I'd say the Braves chances just dipped considerably.

The Phillies aged faster than a lab mouse, and I just don’t see things getting better soon. Howard, Utley, and Rollins are “A” contracts with “C+” returns. For the Phillies to be decent, Brown and Bryd have to duplicate 2013, which I find unlikely. Hamels has had a sore arm, which leaves the Phils with declining Cliff Lee, what-the-hell-happened to Kendrick, and two guys who I wouldn’t like to depend upon: Hernando (aka/ Fausto Carmona) and A. J. Burnett. Papelbon is the heart attack closer. Could be a long year.

The Mets are quietly assembling respectability. Nice lineup with Davis, Daniel Murphy, Young, and the wonderful David Wright. Curtis Granderson? Vastly, vastly overrated. Gee, Niese, Wheeler, and Colon are probably better than the Phillies’ staff. But the Mets aren’t ready to contend yet, and they should make Matt Harvey sit out until he’s 100% healthy. He could be the key to their future.

Breaking news: Niese has experienced shoulder tightness. I’d go slowly on his as well.

The Marlins are my least favorite team in baseball and I want to see them scaled and gutted until Jeff Loria sells the team and it gets moved to a legitimate MLB city. You’ve heard of Saltamacchia and Hechavarria (injured), but no one else except Stanton, whom they’ll probably trade. His .249 led the team in hitting last year, by the way. Pitchers? Marmol is the closer and that’s all you need to know. The roster is irrelevant, as Loria will sell anyone who shows promise.

Predictions:

1. Nationals: A soft pick and I’d not be surprised if they finish 2^nd again.

2. Braves: This team is good. It doesn’t overwhelm but could win MLB’s weakest division.

3. Mets: A hunch on this one. Quiet improvement leads to exceeded expectations.

4. Phillies: And age + albatross contracts brings discontent to America’s grumpiest city.

5. Marlins: Screw ‘em.

Up-the-Skirt Lessons in Massachusetts

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Now banned in the Bay State

Massachusetts recently found itself the butt of jokes when its Supreme Judicial Court ruled that it wasn’t illegal to take up-the-skirt photos of women riding on Boston subway trains. I wonder if it will get equal press for what happened next. In a swift 24 hours the Massachusetts legislature passed a law closing the loophole in the existing statute. Governor Deval Patrick signed it the moment it reached his desk. I wonder also how much airplay will be given to the public lessons learned from this incident.

The first lesson is about technology. Massachusetts already had a law prohibiting shutterbugs from snapping pictures of naked genitals without permission. If the Andover sleaze-ball who precipitated all this captured a naked vagina, he would have lost his lawsuit. Massachusetts had not updated this law for a simple reason:  most laws are reactive, not proactive. As Senate President Therese Murray noted, the older law was a pre-digital, pre-cellphone remnant. Who could imagine that anyone would be so crass as to aim a camera up a woman’s dress? In the days of conventional photography, who would have gotten away with such a thing? The moment someone got out a boxy film camera and aimed it up a skirt, there would have been a hue-and-cry the moment the shutter clicked. Knowing Boston, it wouldn’t have been out of the question for the “photographer” in question to be tossed onto the next platform after a few patrons bloodied him. Can you imagine this person taking his film to the local CVS for developing?

Cellphones and small point-and-shoot cameras have proved game-changers. Technology generally advances far faster than legislation and we can’t always trust individuals to use it in people-friendly ways. In fact, a reluctant second lesson we can draw is that civic ideals are in such steep decline they’ll become endangered species unless some outside force preserves them. What sort of individual thinks it’s okay to point a cellphone up a woman’s dress? Perhaps one who has been poisoned by the same worship of unbridled American individualism that reifies me over we. His was but a more crass version of those who think the entire world wants to hear their cellphone conversations, that texting during public performances is "cool," that taking phone calls during movies is more important than patrons seeing the film, or simply don’t give a damn that it’s dangerous to drive while using one. Think of all the rules now in place that seek to limit or eliminate those behaviors. Every one of them was reactive––an attempt to regulate behaviors we once thought “reasonable” people wouldn’t do.

A third lesson is a warning––we all must be aware that what we do in public is not the same as what we can do in private. I don't ascribe to the she-was-asking-for-it view of provocative dress, but it certainly would behoove everyone to exercise common sense caution. The new Massachusetts law is not a privacy law––you simply don’t have much of that in modern society. Once we’ve broken the civic ideal and can no longer trust individuals to be honorable, welcome to the Nanny State. Ride the subway and you’ll still be on camera. Strike a pose in a public place and you’re probably fair game. Doff your clothes in public and the law won’t protect you––disrobing in public is a tacit waiver of privacy rights. Shop in a public store and smile for the camera. A warrant is needed to use your cellphone conversations against you, but shout them for the whole world to hear and anyone can testify about what they overheard. And so it goes. Nanny is watching and listening because she knows there are too many bad boys and girls on the street. That's annoying, but sometimes it's a good thing. Remember how Boston caught the Marathon bombers?

The new Massachusetts law outlaws taking pictures of the genital regions of children and some clandestine photos of women, if they can be viewed as sexual harassment. A perfect law? Of course not––some jerk will find a loophole. Count on it. But here’s a silver lining over which Bay Staters can gloat: when an obvious flaw emerged, we fixed the statute in a single day. Take that, all of you who think government never does anything. Think long and hard before you trumpet libertarian anti-government slogans. In this case, radical individualism was the problem, not the solution––it took government action to ensure that the public is protected from individual rogues, voyeurs, and me-first sickos. Like I said, Nanny sometimes does know what’s good for us.

Protecting the public is what states have done in enacting strict antismoking laws and in requiring licensure for lawyers, teachers, electricians, and building contractors. It’s what they do when state police arrest speeders, bust bars serving minors, or shut down restaurants violating health codes. It’s why Massachusetts state employees are required to pay into retirement funds. Massachusetts was the first state in the union to sanction gay marriage on the grounds that individual moral beliefs were no justification to discriminate against an entire class of people. Indulge me. What if states took a Nanny view of gun violence? The conservative British Parliament did so when an individual gunned down school children in Dunblane, Scotland in 1996. No repeats to date! What a joyous day it would be if the Bay State determined that guns in public are far more dangerous than a sleaze-ball with a cellphone camera.

Caging the Tigers? AL Central

What is it they say about spring and eternal hope? Can the Royals or Indians cage the Tigers? Of course not!

The Tigers should go to the Series. Call it addition by subtraction–the highly overrated Jim Leyland yields to Brad Asmus as manager, and they suckered the Rangers into swapping Ian Kinsler for the one-dimensional Prince Fielder. The Tigers have MLB’s best hitter, Miggy Cabrera, and its best pitcher, Justin Verlander. Surround Cabrera with Avila, Hunter, and V-Mart, and the rest just need to get on base occasionally. I’m not sold on Rajal Davis, though his OBP will be better than Austin Jackson’s. The staff? Verlander, last year’s Cy Young winner (Scherzer), plus Smyly, Sanchez, and Porcello. Nathan gives them a real closer for a change. It says here that Smyly will be dominant, that Iglesias’ average comes back to earth, and that Joba and Coke will still stink.

The Indians have Terry Francona, one of MLB’s best managers. He’ll get the best out of Swisher, Kipnis, Bourn, Brantley, Santana, and Murphy. Asrubal Cabrera is now the league’s best shortstop. Masterson and McAllister head a staff with so many question marks that the Tribe signed Aaron Harang, which can’t be encouraging. Who’s on third? They need a big bat. Jeff Francoeur says he’s rejuvenated. I’ve only heard that for a decade.

The Royals are a sexy pick for a wild card. They certainly have fewer holes than the Indians and a nice stable of pitchers with Shields, Chen, Guthrie, Brooks, and Davis. They always hit well, though seldom timely enough, and seldom with high OBP. It starts with Gordon–who must stay healthy–and then it’s Moustakas, Hosmer, and the useful Butler. Infante should help, Perez is rising as a catcher, and Bonifacio looks like he’s ready. Lots of unproven guys, though.

The White Sox never seem to find the right chemistry. The pitching should be good, though Sale was hurt a lot of last year and Danks and Axelrod were terrible. Highly regarded rookie RHP Erik Johnson will get a shot at this team. The lineup has two guys, Dunn and Konerko, born to be DHs–a problem as Jose Abreru, Flowers, and Eaton aren’t enough sticks. Keppinger is a nice player; Beckham not even close to his projections. Their closer, Nate Jones, never has done so.

Call the Twins the Cubs of the AL Central. Mauer goes to first, Willingham is decent in left, Suzuki is steady behind the plate and then everything is up for grabs. Prospects like Buxton (OF), Sano (3B), and Myer (RHP) are on the way, but how far can kids take the Twins? Probably further than a staff headed by Nolasco, Hughes, and Pelfry–candidates for the All-Star Major Disappointment squad. Perkins and Duensing, who were supposed to the answer, are in the bullpen.

Predictions:

1. Tigers: They have a shaky pen, but too many swords to lose the Central.

2. Royals: Hope in KC, but still not enough to win the division.

3. Indians: Francona will get the best from a squad that’s not good enough.

4. White Sox: Might lose 90 games.

5. Twins: Wait until 2016. 

The Goldfinch is a Masterpiece

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The Goldfinch (2013)

Donna Tartt

Little Brown 9780-03160-55437, 784 pages

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The Goldfinch by Carel Fabritius

Until I read The Goldfinch would have said that the best post-9/11 novel was Jess Walter’s The Zero (2006). (Sorry, but I found Jonathan Foer’s Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to be pretentious.) Donna Tartt hasn’t just written an amazing 9/11 musing–it’s not even about 9/11 directly–it’s among the best books of the century and might well be a certifiable masterpiece.

The book’s central character is Theodore Decker, but its star is Dutch painter Carel Fabritius (1622-54). I doubt that name rings bells. He was Rembrandt’s prized pupil–one so gifted that several paintings once attributed to Rembrandt are now thought to be his instead. Alas, only a handful of Fabritius’ works still exist because he and over a hundred others died when a gunpowder magazine exploded in Delft. A quarter of the town, including Fabritius’ studio, burned. Among the works that survived is the delicate namesake of Tartt’s novel.

The novel is narrated by Theo and covers his life from ages 13 to 27. You might first think that Theo’s troubles began at 13, but he doesn’t believe that, and maybe you shouldn’t either. He and his mother, Audrey, are on their way to meet with school officials on a day Theo would normally be in class, were it not for some unsettling trouble that he and a classmate got into. Being that they are consummate New Yorkers, their trip to the school begins with a trip to a café and, to escape a vile taxi and get out the rain, a short stop at the Metropolitan Museum of Art to view The Goldfinch, on loan from a museum in The Hague. Theo is very bright, but he’s also 13 and there’s just so much culture a boy can take. What really attracts his eye is a comely redhead about his age. When his mother decides to take in another gallery, Theo stays behind in the gift shop in hope of getting another glance at the girl. And then it happens––a massive terrorist-planted bomb explodes sending debris, dust, and body parts flying. Hundreds die and numerous priceless artworks are lost. Is The Goldfinch among them?

Theo pulls himself out of the rubble in time to encounter the only other living soul in the gift shop, a mortally wounded elderly man who was with the redheaded girl. Before he expires, he presses a ring of cryptic design upon Theo and gives him a Greenwich Village address to which he should deliver it. But first, it seems, Theo has to find a guardian––as he learns several days later, his mother is among the dead. The Goldfinch has drawn Dickens analogies, and there are certainly Oliver Twist parallels in the way orphan Theo will be bounced around, starting with the upper crust Barbour family, which takes him in temporarily because he was among the only kids who was ever nice to their nerdy son, Andy. Thus begins a saga that will next take Theo to Las Vegas, where the father who walked out on him and his mother resides with his ditzy dye-job girlfriend Xandra. Larry Decker is better at being a small-time gambler trying to swim with big fish than being a caregiver, and largely leaves Theo to his own devices. Among those devices is Boris, the worldly son of a rich Russian. Or is he Polish? Or Ukrainian? Or something else? The two boys experience a misspent adolescence that involves very little that’s healthy or wholesome.

Tartt’s novel is long and sprawling, but nothing is wasted. Everything you encounter early will come back into play. Circumstances send Theo back to New York, where he meets “Hobie,” the man to whom he delivers the ring and who teaches Theo one of his future occupations: antiques, though suffice it to say that Hobie’s restoration work is more on the level than some of Theo’s pursuits. The red-haired girl comes back into play, as will the Barbour family, Boris, and vice. We’ll also detour to Amsterdam, go inside European crime syndicates, experience New York snobbery, and plumb the depth of despair before the book comes to a denouement that is, at once, concluding but not conclusive. And what ties it altogether is the fate of the Fabritius canvas. Think you know where it is? You’re probably wrong.  

This is not just a great story; it’s also a profound book about loss, desire, and obsession. It asks us to take a hard look at what we value, why we want those things, and why we sometimes pass on the things we want above all else. It also asks us to ponder what we are willing to forgive in the name of some greater love, and the things for which can and cannot forgive ourselves. Perhaps most of all, it forces us to consider that in the battle between nature and nurture, apples might not fall as far from rotten trees as we might hope they would. Can we change our essential natures? Are we the architects of our own misfortune? I’ve called this a post-9/11 novel not just because of the terrorist/bomb/wrecked lives parallels, but also because of the aforementioned big questions over which tragedy has a way of making us muse. Kudos to Donna Tartt for a novel that is at once provocative and profound. --Rob Weir 

The Cards are Still Stacked: NL Central Preview

Conventional wisdom says that the Cardinals will miss Carlos Beltrán and won’t have enough firepower to repeat as NL West champs. CW is, as usual, wrong, though scoring runs might be a problem if Craig slumps, or if Holliday slides into his too familiar bad-year-after-a-good-year routine. Bourjos won’t replace Beltrán, though his defense will be better. Peralta will probably hit better in the NL and Matt Carpenter is poised to become a major star. The good news is that the Cards don’t need to score much with a staff headed by Wainwright, Wacha, Lynn, Garcia, and Kelly. There are more power arms in the high minors.

The Reds always look awesome on paper–Votto, Phillips, Bruce, Ludwick, and the speedy Hamilton–but they never quite live up to their hype when it matters. Latos is currently injured, and he’s down for any length of time, Bailey will need to be the ace that Cueto looks like he’ll never become. Chapman closes because he flopped a starter, which I still say he should be if he’s really going to help this team.

The Pirates were Cinderella last year, but will the carriage revert to a pumpkin this year? It could, though McCutchen is a stud and Sanchez, Alvarez, and Walker are very good. Then you have the “who knows?” inconsistency guys: Martin, Marte, and Tabata, the latter in a make-it-or-pack-it year. For the Pirates to continue to rise, the pitching has to be there. Cole should get even better, but how confident are we that Liriano will stay healthy, or that Rodriquez, Morton, or Volquez will live up to their promise? Nice bullpen, though, headed by Grilli and Melanchon. Young shortstop Jody Mercer is on the cusp.

The Brewers are hopeful. There is firepower with Braun, Lucroy, Ramirez, and Weeks. Lohse, Garza, and Gallardo are good. This, in a nutshell, is what I think of the Brewers: good, but not good enough.

The Cubs are the Cubs. Need I say more? One legitimate star, Castro, and lots of guys who might be serviceable–Rizzo, Scherholtz, Lake, Valbuena, Ruggiano–and some minor leaguers you’ll probably see before the year is out: Javier Baez (ss) and Kris Bryant (3B). The staff is Samardzija, the perpetually disappointing Edwin Jackson, and huh? The Cubs haven’t been to the World Series in 68 years. It will be a while before it has a prayer of happening again.

Predictions:

1. Cardinals: Too much pitching to lose the Central. Not enough hitting to win it all.

2. Reds: New manager (Bryan Price) and a team that gels or is disassembled. 2nd or 4th.

3. Pirates: Good vibes and big holes. could contend, could disappoint.  

4. Brewers: Can Braun hit without ‘roids? Are three pitchers enough? Don’t think so.

5. Cubs: Wrigley Field is a nice place to see a game when a major league team visits.

MLB Preview: How the NL West Will Be Won

Call it a hunch!

The Dodgers now outspend the Yankees, are the runaway favorites in the NL West, and a trendy pick to win the World Series. Haven’t I heard that somewhere before? Gonzalez, Ramirez, Puig, Ethier, and a healthy Matt Kemp–LA should hit a ton. Kershaw, Grienke, Billingsley, and Ryu can pitch and Jansen’s a proven closer. What could go wrong? Chemistry, for one. Which outfielder will sit? Crawford? Kemp? Can Puig and Beckett stay of trouble? Other than Kershaw, the staff is solid but inconsistent. Is Grienke an ace, or one of MLB’s chronic underachievers?  

Breaking news: Grienke left his first spring training start after three pitches. 

Baumgardner, Cain, Hudson, Lincecum, Vogelsong…. The Giants simply have too much pitching for 2013 to have been anything more than a fluke. Posey, Belt, Sandoval, Pagan, and Pence don’t match up with the Dodgers’ heavy hitters, but they’ll do. Sergio Roma as closer? I’ll withhold judgement for another year. As much as people talk of the Dodgers’ staff, the Giants have the potential to be better. You know what they say about good pitching versus good hitting…

The Rockies are the annual mystery team and this year is no different. We know that CarGo, Tulowitzi, and Cuddyer are pretty good, and that De La Rosa and Chacin are crafty pitchers. What we don’t know is anything else. Is Arnando the future at third base? Will Morneau stay healthy? Can an unproven closer (Brothers) do the job? Who comes after Chacin in the rotation? 

Breaking news: Chacin has had spring shoulder problems. This is very bad news for the Rox. 

The Diamondbacks are also a mystery team. Goldschmidt, Hill, Prado, and Trumbo are proven hitters, Cody Ross an occasional one. The staff has an innings eater in Arroyo, but he’s no ace. And neither is the maddeningly inconsistent McCarthy or the fragile Cahill. Corbin was the man last year. If he slumps… If things click properly, the D’Backs can make some noise, but they could go south faster than a D.C. conservative.

The Padres won’t suck this year, but they look to be a few years away from being contenders.  Quentin is the real deal and there are some nice prospects on this roster (Alonso, Gyorko, Cabrera). They also have a lot of garbage (like Venable and Maybin). The pitching staff is a very big question mark. Which Ian Kennedy and Josh Johnson will show up? And who are the rest of these guys? This is Headley’s year to prove if he’s an elite player, or just one that had good early press.

Prediction:

1. Giants: Total hunch; could be out to lunch

2. Dodgers: Proving again that money buys respectability, but not a brass ring.

3. Rockies: I’m betting things go well, but wouldn’t be shocked if the Rocks sink.

4. Padres: They surprise by escaping from the Lower Ring of Hades.

5. Diamondbacks: I don’t like their pitching staff at all. But if things go right...