American League East Preview

I hate 'em, but I'm still picking them!

Baseball’s power division could get even more interesting—Baltimore has been slowly assembling a superb nucleus. In order of last year’s finish:

New York Yankees: The defending world champions were busy in the offseason. Departing are Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Phil Coke, Chien-Ming Wang, Melky Cabrera, Xavier Nady, Jose Molina, a few bit players, and some prospects. In come Curtis Granderson, Javier Vasquez, Nick Johnson, Boone Logan, Randy Winn, and Jamie Hoffman. Are the Yankees better? Not as I see it. Vasquez joins Sabathia, Burnett, and Petite to make up a solid 1-4 rotation, but the bullpen will be worse if the Yanks continue trotting out Joba Chamberlain every fifth day. Joba, like A. J. Burnett, throws too many pitches and they grind down the pen. Phil Hughes should start and Joba belongs in the pen because one day age will catch up to the magnificent Mariano Rivera. Gaudin, Aceves, and young David Robertson are good, but then come bums (Marte and Logan) and question marks. The Yanks just signed Chan Ho Park; that tells you how much confidence they have in the bullpen.

Teams will still need to score lots of runs to beat the Yankees as the lineup remains formidable. Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, and A-Rod are the best infield in baseball by a wide margin. Jorge Posada is aging, but he’s still one of the better catchers in baseball and is dangerous at the plate. The outfield is less impressive. I wouldn’t have resigned Damon either, but I’m not a Granderson fan. If he doesn’t hit lefties any better than last year the Bombers will miss Matsui. Swisher and Gardner ought to be role players, not starters and the Winn signing is a head-scratcher that means they’ll probably lose Hoffman, a Rule 5 signing. Nick Johnson just went on the DL by tying his shoes.

Boston Red Sox: On paper this is the best pitching staff in MLB. Beckett, Lester, Dice-K, free agent signee John Lackey, Clay Bucholtz, and the ageless Tim Wakefield looks very good. The open question is whether they are good. I don’t look for Lackey to do as well in the AL East, Dice-K may be as fragile as he is stubborn, and Bucholtz may be overhyped. If any of them falter, Michael Bowden or Boof Bonser may get a long look. Is Daniel Bard poised to be the closer? The Sox aren’t showing much inclination to nail down Papelbon, so look for Bard to get more chances. Who will show up? The stud or the deer lost in the headlights? He was both last year.

The pitching needs to be good because the Sox aren’t going to out-lumber the Yankees. Youkilis is a great hitter, but Pedroia retuned to earth last season and I think he’s more of .280 hitter than a .330 guy. If I’m right, the Sox infield won’t be very productive. Adrian Beltre? Please! Another NL one-season wonder. Scutaro? Good glove, but not much of a stick. David Ortiz? He’s looking fat, slow, and the buzz is that he used more PEDs than have been made public. Victor Martinez is the big stick, but he’s a mediocre catcher on a staff that couldn’t hold on runners with a staple gun. The Sox outfield of Ellsbury, Cameron, and J. D. Drew is less than its press clippings, though it sure is fun to watch Ellsbury run. The lineup may be better than it looks on paper, but this team lives and dies with its pitching. The latter is so deep, though, that the Sox should win the East.

Tampa Rays: I said last year that ’08 was a fluke and was right. They’re still a fluke. James Shields must be a number one now that the disappointing Scott Kazmir has departed, but Shields looks more like a three to me. David Price is yet to live up to his ballyhoo and an injury will probably send him to AAA for a time. Andy Sonnanstine was almost traded and the Rays might have been better off keeping Edwin Jackson. In my view the top Rays pitcher is Matt Garza. One place where the Rays will be much better, though, is finishing games. Rafael Soriano is a huge upgrade.

The Rays fly on the base path, but there are too many low OBP guys. People rave about Carlos Pena’s 39 dingers but forget that he hit .229, which is eight points more than what DH Pat Burrell hit, and a point higher than their starting catcher (Navarro). You have to like guys like Upton, Crawford, Bartlett, and Longoria but there’s just something about this team that feels wrong to me. If the pitching struggles, the Rays could become manatees.

Toronto Blue Jays: They did what they had to do in trading ace Roy Halliday and making sure he got out of the AL. This makes Ricky Romero the new ace. He’s decent, but not a number one. The only other starter whose ERA was (barely) under five is Kevin Gregg and that was with the Cubs. The Jays’ future staff is in Syracuse, not Toronto. If Kyle Drabek lives up to his billing the Halliday trade will work out well in the long run and that’s the way the Jays need to think because this team won’t compete this year. They unloaded Alex Rios, a great move, and need to do likewise with Vernon Wells, if they can get anyone to take his contract. There’s not a lot of firepower in their lineup, just some good-but-not-great players: Travis Snider, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion…. They’ve no idea who the catcher will be. And here’s saying that Aaron Hill won’t come close to replicating last year’s numbers.

Baltimore Orioles: If kids like Matusz, Bergerson, and Tillman pitch well, this team is going to surprise people. The O’s already have the best outfield in baseball that almost nobody knows about: Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Nolan Reimold. Heck, backup Luke Scott is as good as anyone the Yankees will start, and that leaves Felix Pie as trade bait (which they should dangle immediately, because he’ll never live up to his potential). Matt Wieters looks like a budding All-Star catcher. The infield has veterans Garrett Atkins, Brian Roberts, Miguel Tejada, and Ty Wiggington. The future looks bright for the Orioles--if the pitching is there.

Predicted Order of Finish:
(1) Red Sox, (2) Yankees, (3) Orioles, (4) Rays, (5) Blue Jays