Central Time: MLB Preview

Psst--For people on the coasts, there is MLB in the purple states as well. Also Ohio! 

On paper, both the Cincinnati Reds and Detroit Tigers are head and shoulders above their competition. But we still have to play 162 games to prove that thesis. Both leagues also have two teams that are doing what they should be doing: dumping high-priced roster holders, stockpiling young talent, and rebuilding. Neither the Chicago Cubs nor the Minnesota Twins will go to the playoffs this year, but they won’t be as bad as last year either; no one should approach them as if they were patsies.

National League Central:   Latos, Cueto, Bailey, Leake (and maybe Chapman) aren’t an overwhelming staff, but they’re better than anyone else’s in the division. The Reds should win with that staff because a lineup featuring Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Phillips, Frazier, and Choo is going to masticate lesser staffs. The Cards might have given the Reds a ride to the roses, but then the talented Chris Carpenter went down with what is probably a career-ending injury. (The same may be true of Furcal.) Once the Cards get past Wainwright, what follows—Westbrook, Lynn--is serviceable, but not imposing. The staff is so thin that Garcia will probably start, which isn’t good. Holliday, Freeze, Craig, Beltran, and Jay anchor a lineup that’s like the staff­—a few studs and some plow horses.

The sexy pick is the Pirates¸ to which I reply: Let’s try being merely respectable before we start dreaming big. Walker and McCutchen are the real thing; Barnes and Garrett Jones are useful. Color me unimpressed by the Russ Martin pickup; he and Burnett should prove combustible. Morton, Marte, and Tabata? Put up, or ship out. The Pirates are banking a lot on cast-offs such as Liriano, Burnett, Melanchon, and Wandy Rodriguez. Such hopes seldom end well.

The Brewers can drag out guys that can hurt you: Hart, Aramis Ramirez, Weeks, Braun…. They can also go a week without making contact. And if MLB doesn’t make Ryan Braun pee in a cup twice a day, it’s simply not serious about its drug policy. Mat Gamel looks like Mr. Hype Goes on a Holiday (to AAA).  Matt Lucroy is on the cusp of being the best catcher in the NL, but when the ace of staff he will handle is Gallardo, he’s going to see a lot of base runners. The Cubs have some young players who will be fun to watch develop, especially Castro and Rizzo. Solid vets such as DeJesus and Hairston will help, and GM Theo Epstein was right to hold onto Matt Garza. (Why he overpaid Edwin Jackson is another matter….) Alfonso Soriano should get a monthly lease.

American League Central:  When you have one of the league’s best pitchers (Verlander), the MVP/Triple Crown winner (Miguel Cabrera), and went to the World Series the year before, that’s a pretty nice base. The Tigers should easily roar to the AL Central title this year. This team is deep and dangerous. What pitcher wants to face Cabrera, Fielder, Victor Martinez, Avila, Hunter, Infante, and Austin Jackson? Or hit against Verlander, Sanchez, Fister, and Scherzer? Unless this team self-destructs, only the # 2 spot is up for grabs.

The White Sox can pitch Danks, Floyd, and Sale (if healthy), but then who? Dunn, Konerko, Vicrede, and Rios can knock down fences, but often it’s from the backswing of a swish rather than contact. This looks to be a team that can compete, but not win. That’s also what I think about the Indians. It would help if Jimenez, Masterson, and McAllister induced more than comments about how great their stuff “looks.” The lineup has two fine players—Carlos Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera—playing around workman-like players: Swisher, Bourn, Brantley, Stubbs, Reynolds. The Indians look good enough to be just slightly better than mediocre.

The Royals are the AL equivalent of the Pirates, and I’m taking the same “prove it” stance. Give GM Dayton Moore credit for fleecing the Rays. He got two topnotch starters (Shields and Wade Davis) for a “can’t miss” outfield prospect. (One wonders how so many of them manage to do so!) Add Chen, Hochevar, and Guthrie and that’s not bad. There’s also Ervin Santana, but he’s such a head case that I’d not count on him. The lineup also has potential: Gordon, Butler, Hosmer, Moustakas, Francoeur….  But until I see ERAs decline and on-base-percentages rise dramatically, I remain a Royals skeptic.  As for the Twins, any team with Mauer and Morneau is worth watching. But a staff on which the only guys of whom you've ever heard are named Correia, Pelfry, and Duensing, not much can be expected.

NL Central Predictions: Reds, Cards, Pirates, Brewers, Cubs

AL Central Predictions: Tigers, White Sox, Royals, Indians, Twins. (You can probably flip flop anyone you wish for 2, 3, 4.)